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Even though the last time the Buffalo Bills played the Kansas City Chiefs was nine months ago, it is still very fresh in the minds of not only the fans but also the coaches and players. It would be hard not to think about Buffalo’s overtime loss in the Divisional Round in what might be one of the greatest games of our time.
Thirteen seconds. That’s all Patrick Mahomes needed to drive his team 44 yards to get kicker Harrison Butker in position to drill the kick that sent the game into overtime. After what may be his best effort yet, Josh Allen never got another chance to put more points up. Calling tails instead of heads was his only mistake of the day.
The Chiefs then embarked on an eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in overtime, meaning another successful season ended early for Buffalo. In the end, it felt like we, as fans, had been cheated by the rules of the game. Everyone wanted to see if Allen had one more drive in him and if the Bills could continue putting points on the board.
This criticism was so loud that the NFL actually changed the overtime rules for postseason play, allowing each team to take possession before a game ends. In some ways, the Bills vs. Chiefs game changed history.
In fact, both teams did make history. Allen and Mahomes each put forth excellent performances. It was the first time any quarterback had more than 300 passing yards, three touchdowns, and a completion rate above 70% while leading their teams with at least 65 yards rushing. No quarterback had ever pulled the feat off before, but both QBs did so on this fateful Sunday.
So how do we possibly follow must-see TV? By tuning into the rematch, of course.
It’s been nearly a year, and some players have certainly changed teams, but these two organizations are at the top of the class again in 2022. No more Tyreek Hill will make life easier on the Buffalo secondary, not having to worry about his world-class speed, but that doesn’t mean Mahomes is any less dangerous.
Pitting the top-scoring offense against the No. 2 scoring offense, fans are in for a treat Sunday afternoon. Yet, there are a few glaring areas where the Bills have proven to be better than the Chiefs, even with Buffalo’s injury troubles. Let’s dive in.
Buffalo Bills vs. Chiefs game details, where to watch
- Sunday, October 16, 2022
- Start time: 4:25 PM ET
- TV channel - CBS
- Location - GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
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Matchups to watch
- Josh Allen vs. Chiefs secondary
We pretty much always expect Josh Allen to put up video-game numbers, as we saw in Week 4, with the 26-year-old QB posting a career-high 424 passing yards. He did this against what’s surprisingly been a suspect Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense that came into the matchup ranked 21st in pass defense. Kansas City’s pass defense currently ranks 24th.
Yet, don’t expect that to automatically mean Allen is in for an even bigger day. Pittsburgh’s offensive inefficiencies led to Buffalo getting extra scoring opportunities, and of course, a few big plays from Gabe Davis didn’t hurt.
But Allen will be torqued up for this matchup, as it’s one he’s had circled on his calendar since the moment the NFL schedule was revealed back in May. That 329-yard, four-touchdown performance we saw the last time these two teams matched up shouldn’t be a problem for Allen to repeat. Even taking chances or gambles downfield will come with less pressure, as the Chiefs have intercepted just one pass all season.
As long as Buffalo’s offensive line can manage Kansas City’s pass-rush rotation that is tied for 8th in the league, averaging 2.6 sacks per game, Allen should be in for another banner day.
- Patrick Mahomes vs. Best defense in football
Even without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdown tosses. He’s also leading a Chiefs offense that ranks first in football, scoring on 50% of their offensive drives. That’s crazy, but now Andy Reid’s crew takes on a defense allowing teams to score on just 22% of their possessions (second-best rate in the NFL). Something has to budge on Sunday.
Even without some of their key defenders, such as Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, and Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills have maintained a top-notch defense. They rank first in scoring defense, allowing a minuscule 12.2 points per game. That comes even after facing teams such as the Rams and Ravens, who are supposed to be a constant threat to score 30 points.
Basically, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier and head coach Sean McDermott have their unit playing outstanding football, keeping the Herd on track no matter who goes down. It’s kind of like how Mahomes has persevered without Hill.
Travis Kelce remains, and he reminded everyone he’s still special, scoring four touchdowns on Monday night, but Mahomes has found success with his newcomers as well. Both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have over 250 yards already this season but have failed to find the end zone. Kelce makes up for it by reaching paydirt seven times in five games.
The Bills will have to put at least two defenders on Kelce anywhere near the red zone, but their other pass-catchers shouldn’t keep anyone up at night. Then again, facing Mahomes, it’s probably hard for any defender to sleep soundly.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Chiefs game prediction
- This season’s record: Buffalo Bills 4-1, 1st in AFC East
- Kansas City Chiefs: 4-1, 1st in AFC West
It doesn’t matter what anyone else says. The Bills and Chiefs matchup is the game of the week. Everyone likes touchdowns, and at least one of these teams is nearly guaranteed to reach 30 points.
It’s all about which defense can do their best to limit the opposing QB, which is no easy task. As Allen and Mahomes have both shown, they’re practically indefensible. Just when you think the player is contained or the coverage is tight, they either take off in a dash or just simply uncork a 60-yard bomb that somehow lands in the outstretched arms of their receiver. It’s incredible to see.
While we wish we could watch the Bills play the Chiefs for five hours, someone will ultimately emerge as the winner. Maybe we’re feeling a bit too confident heading into this matchup, but unless the injuries finally start to be a huge impediment, it’s hard not to envision Buffalo proving they’re finally the better team.
Even with the Chiefs having home-field advantage, Vegas views Buffalo as the better squad too. Betting odds have the Bills entering the week as 2.5-point favorites to take down Mahomes in Week 6. Let’s hope they’re right.
Game prediction: Bills 37, Chiefs 31 - Bills victory
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