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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 5 game preview

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© Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Buffalo Bills are the hottest team in the NFL right now, and it’s not even close. In fact, the Bills are just the third team since 1990, with two shutouts in their first four games.

 

What happened to those other two teams? In 1991, Washington went on to win the Super Bowl (sorry to bring up a bad memory). The other team, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, also won their franchise’s first Super Bowl. 

 

That doesn’t mean we should all book our vacations for SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles yet, but this Bills team is already doing extraordinary things just four games into the 2021 NFL season.

 

The Bills have also outscored their opponents by a total of 90 points already, by far the greatest point differential among NFL teams in 2021. 

 

But none of that matters, with the Rumbling Herd headed to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football this week. It’s all about finding a way to slow down Mahomes and trying to contain the ever-so-electric Tyreek Hill.

 

While last time the Bills played the Chiefs wasn’t the outcome any of us were looking for, this time feels different. Whether it’s getting sacks, pressures, or creating turnovers, Buffalo has a defense that’s wreaking havoc, and this game should be no different.

Buffalo Bills Week 5 game details, where to watch

  • Sunday, October 10, 2021
  • Start time: 8:20 PM ET
  • TV channel - NBC
  • Location - GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri

 

 

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© Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

What happened last time the Bills played the Kansas City Chiefs?

Bills 24

Chiefs 38

 

Ugh. Can we just skip this section this week?

 

It’s hard for any of us to forget what happened the last time the Bills had to play the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Of course, both teams were playing as if their season depended on it. Because it did. 

 

While the Bills did fairly decent in the game, the Chiefs ultimately left victorious, setting them up for their next test with the Super Bowl-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

Despite how poorly the Chiefs played in Super Bowl LV, some Bills Fans can’t help but wonder if Josh Allen’s crew would have at least appeared competent taking on Tampa Tom Brady.

 

In that AFC Conference Championship matchup versus the Chiefs, the Bills couldn’t run the ball to save their lives. This time around feels a bit different. The pass rush is also vastly improved.

 

Remember, the Bills did get out to a 9-0 lead before Kansas City woke up and never looked back in 2020. There’s no reason this Week 5 matchup can’t be similar; only hopefully, the Bills can keep the momentum on their side.

 

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© Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Matchups to watch

  • Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes

I know; this isn’t a matchup between the two per se. As competitive as they are, you’re never going to see Josh Allen covering Tyreek Hill or Patrick Mahomes attempting to keep up with the masterful route running that Stefon Diggs routinely uses to make defenders look silly.

 

However, how well either of these teams does directly falls on the shoulders of their superstar signal-callers. This matchup pits two of the very best young cannon-armed quarterbacks against one another. It’s a duel the NFL hopes to see several more times in the next decade-plus.

 

One could argue the two best QB’s in the game are going head-to-head. We can only hope for clear weather so they can both truly show off their howitzer arms. 

 

  • Buffalo WRs vs. Chiefs DBs

One area the Bills are undoubtedly better than the Chiefs is on defense, especially in the secondary. The Chiefs are allowing the second-most yards per game at 437.8 per contest. 

 

On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Bills, leading the league allowing just 216.8 yards per game. The next team isn’t even close, with Cleveland being over 30 yards per game away.

 

The Chiefs have some solid players in their front seven, and safety Tyrann Mathieu sticks out in their secondary, but they don’t have the corners to cover the weapons Buffalo has to work with.

 

Emmanuel Sanders has already proven to be a great pickup this offseason. We have yet to see Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs play as they did in 2020, but it’s coming. Possibly even against the Chiefs. 

 

  • Bills pass rush vs. Chiefs OL

With both teams in the top-five of sacks allowed, they have done a superb job keeping their franchise quarterbacks clean this season. Sure, it also helps that they both have above-average athleticism and mobility, but these teams are also blocking better than they were a season ago.

 

Rookie center Creed Humphrey has been playing lights-out for the Chiefs, earning rookie of the week from Pro Football Focus for his Week 4 effort against Philly’s stout defensive interior. PFF has him as one of their highest-graded centers so far.

 

According to PFF, a 2020 second-round pick, A.J. Epenesa, has taken a Buffalo-sized leap forward this season. 

 

As a rookie, Epenesa graded at 64.7, playing just 27% of the defensive snaps with 291. Now in his second season, Epenesa is playing at a much higher level, grading at an elite 87.6 score

 

The elevated productivity levels have also seen Epenesa take a more prominent role within the defense, now playing 40% of the defensive snaps through four games.

 

With Epenesa playing better than before and Gregory Rousseau looking like another excellent pick, suddenly, the Bills have a young pass-rushing duo that should only continue to grow.

 

 

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© Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills Week 5 game prediction

  • Last season’s record: Buffalo Bills 13-3, reached AFC Conference Championship
  • Kansas City Chiefs 14-2, first place in AFC West, losing 31-9 in the Super Bowl

 

The betting sportsbooks have opened with the Chiefs favored by a range from 2.5 up to 4 points. Despite having a worse record than the Bills at 2-2 compared to 3-1, since the Chiefs have home-field advantage, they are favored.

 

While the public may not see it or know it yet, these two teams are much closer than many would think. Everyone is blinded by the fact that the Chiefs have this magnanimous recognizable trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Tyreek Hill. But the fact remains this defense sucks.

 

Buffalo is firing on all cylinders, and while we can’t run from the fact that they’ve faced three teams starting their backup quarterbacks so far, the Bills are still playing their best ball. 

 

It’s going to be tough to hold the Chiefs under 24 points, something that hasn’t occurred since their Super Bowl loss to the Bucs, but if any team can do it, it’s this Rumbling Herd. 

 

Expect the Bills’ offensive attack to overwhelm the Kansas City defense with its newfound rushing success. While the Herd stifles and suffocates Mahomes, sending them back below .500, causing a media stir. Are the Buffalo Bills the team to beat this year? These Bills Fans will say yes.

 

Game prediction: 35-30 Bills victory

 

 

BillsFans.com - Andrew Buller-Russ 

 

 

 

Related:

Bills Win Third Straight As Defense Shows Up In 40-0 Rout Of Houston

Bills Roll Over Texans

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans 10/3/21 - A Few Thoughts about the Texans Game, in no particular order

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