2021 Bills Projections and Predictions Thread

September 4, 2021

September 4, 2021

14 minutes ago, Ann said:

Oh, I like this prediction:

All this pre-season adulation thrown at Josh would normally make me apprehensive. But when Josh says he holds himself to a higher standard than anyone else can....I believe him.

September 5, 2021

On 9/4/2021 at 10:17 AM, Ann said:

I like the way this guy thinks!

^^^THIS^^^ would be my dream year in that after all the torment throughout Marsha career, to be the team that ultimately sends him into retirement!

September 5, 2021

53 minutes ago, Cinga said:

^^^THIS^^^ would be my dream year in that after all the torment throughout Marsha career, to be the team that ultimately sends him into retirement!

Only one thing to add to that list would be Super Bowl MVP — Jerry Hughes for sacking Marsha 4 times and forcing two fumbles.

September 6, 2021

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Week 1 Predictions: Against the Spread, Total, and Props

... Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Predictions

Many bettors will point to last year's meeting between these teams for an indication of how this year's game will play out. However, it is unfair to do that given the vastly different circumstances that game was played under, specifically the fact that a December game in Buffalo is much different than one in September.

That being said, from a prop betting perspective, one has to be impressed with Stefon Diggs' stat-line of 10/130/1 against Pittsburgh last year. The Steelers do not have anyone in the secondary who can cover him, and if Diggs can go off like that in frigid temperatures, he is in line for another massive game in optimal weather conditions.

It has been difficult for underdogs to upset Buffalo, as the Bills are 18-2 SU in their last 20 games as favorites. In addition, the Bills have won their previous seven home games by an average of 11.6 points per game. Buffalo's roster has several fewer question marks than Pittsburgh's heading into this season, specifically on the offensive line. Look for Bills head coach Sean McDermott to load the box and take away Najee Harris's running lanes while pressing Pittsburgh's receivers, given Roethlisberger's inability to push the ball downfield much last year.

The safest bet is laying the -6.5 points with the favored Bills but get on this spread early before it reaches the key number of -7 or beyond. Though the under has cashed in five of the last six meetings between these teams, the Steelers played many high-scoring games down the stretch last year, as the over cashed in each of their final four games. I want to wait and see if any defensive issues carry over to this season before firing on the total. But remember, no matter how their defense looks, they will not slow down Stefon Diggs.

Bills -6.5

September 6, 2021

FMIA: Sorry, Bucs and Chiefs. Here’s Why Super Bowl Will Be Rams-Bills, And More Predictions For NFL 2021

... The Lead: 2021 Picks

I’m picking a Rams-Bills Super Bowl. Obvious rejoinder: What’s wrong with Kansas City and Tampa Bay? You had them ranked 1-2 in the spring. The answer is, Nothing. I really liked the Bills and Rams when I went to their camps. I think it’s Buffalo’s breakthrough year, and I think Matthew Stafford gives the Rams the kind of offensive confidence and explosiveness they haven’t had since we all thought Jared Goff was The Answer, in early 2018. More about each in a moment, and some explanations.

Here’s how I see the pennant races, with the wild cards asterisked and teams not in the playoffs last year marked with a # sign:

AFC Seeds
1 Buffalo
2 Kansas City
3 Tennessee
4 Cleveland
5 New England*#
6 L.A. Chargers*#
7 Baltimore*

Wild Card: Kansas City over Baltimore, Chargers over Tennessee, New England over Cleveland.
Divisional: Buffalo over L.A. Chargers, Kansas City over New England.
Conference: Buffalo 27, Kansas City 25.

NFC Seeds
1 Tampa Bay
2 Green Bay
3 L.A. Rams
4 Dallas#
5 San Francisco*#
6 New Orleans*
7 Seattle*

Wild Card: Green Bay over Seattle, L.A. Rams over New Orleans, San Francisco over Dallas.
Divisional: Tampa Bay over San Francisco, L.A. Rams over Green Bay.
Conference: L.A. Rams 30, Tampa Bay 27.

Super Bowl LVI, at Los Angeles, Feb. 13, 2022: L.A. Rams 33, Buffalo 24. ...

... 4. It’s time for the Bills . . . assuming they keep Covid at bay. Tough pick here, because the Bills lost to KC by nine and 14 last year and we still don’t have proof that the Achilles heel of the Buffalo franchise, the pass rush, is any good. At least one of the three high edge picks in the last two drafts—A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham—needs to strike fear into the hearts of offensive coordinators by midseason. Big, big need.

Even with an abysmal pass-rush last year, the Bills were 15th in the league in defense. I trust Sean McDermott to make that ranking appreciably better. So much of Buffalo’s fate rests with Josh Allen. I like that. Let’s examine Allen’s path to this moment. He played at a small California high school and wasn’t recruited by a single major-college program. He spent a year at a California JuCo. He went to a smaller college program, Wyoming. He was hurt parts of his first two years in Buffalo. Last year, his first healthy season with a top receiver group, his completion percentage went up 10 percentage points, he got the Bills to the AFC title game, and earned one of the biggest deals in NFL history.

What hasn’t he done well? Performed well late against the best team in AFC. Buffalo lost to Kansas City twice last year, never led either game in the second half, and Allen led the team to only two touchdowns in the two second halves against KC. In the offseason, Allen worked on control. It’s clear he’s talented enough, throwing and running, to be great for a long time. But even he admits he’s tried to do too much late in games early in his career. “Control” is a bit of an abstract term here, but to Allen it means ratcheting down the emotions, don’t force anything, trust the people around you more. The addition of the wily Emmanuel Sanders (if he can give Buffalo a good year at 34) and emergence of Jake Kumerow as a big target—supplementing Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley—mean this is the deepest receiver group the Bills have had in years.

Allen is 25. After playing off-off Broadway as a quarterback for years, now he understands what it takes to win in the big time. Now he’s just got to do it. I’m betting he’s ready.

As for Covid, the Bills have had their issues; I could tell on my visit to camp in August it’s still something that could plague this team, because guys like Beasley won’t back down from their I’m-not-getting-vaxxed stances. They’d better be careful. A positive test by an unvaccinated player on, say, a Friday puts him out for two games. It’s football roulette. I think the Bills can overcome it, but they don’t sell insurance for these kinds of things. ...

September 6, 2021

On 9/4/2021 at 4:17 PM, NCBillsFan said:

All this pre-season adulation thrown at Josh would normally make me apprehensive. But when Josh says he holds himself to a higher standard than anyone else can....I believe him.

Yes, I think second place is the first looser is his mindset. he does not want to be second best.

September 6, 2021

Simulating the 2021 NFL season: Projecting 285 games, biggest storylines and a Super Bowl winner

... Wild-card round:
(AFC) No. 7 Jaguars defeat No. 2 Colts, 23-17
(AFC) No. 3 Browns defeat No. 6 Steelers, 35-30
(AFC) No. 4 Chiefs defeat No. 5 Dolphins, 27-24
(NFC) No. 2 49ers defeat No. 7 Bears, 20-17
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 6 Rams, 33-31
(NFC) No. 5 Saints defeat No. 4 Cowboys, 26-14

Divisional round:
(AFC) No. 1 Bills defeat No. 7 Jaguars, 31-14
(AFC) No. 3 Browns defeat No. 4 Chiefs, 20-12
(NFC) No. 1 Buccaneers defeat No. 5 Saints, 28-24
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 2 49ers, 28-23

Conference championships:
(AFC) No. 1 Bills defeat No. 3 Browns, 27-13
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 1 Buccaneers, 39-26

Bills win Super Bowl LVI

They did it! The Buffalo Bills won their first-ever Super Bowl, capping an incredible season in which they looked like serious contenders from beginning to end. Buffalo finished 13-4 in the regular season, and QB Josh Allen beat out Patrick Mahomes for the league's MVP award.

Buffalo lost a crazy 45-42 game to the Patriots in Week 13 (Patriots QB Mac Jones' future is bright!) and then never lost again. In the Super Bowl, Allen opened the game with a touchdown to receiver Stefon Diggs, and running back Devin Singletary ran for two more scores. Cornerback Tre'Davious White jumped an interception with four minutes left in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. Final score: 27-17.

But the most important stat of all? Buffalo-area grocery stores sold out of every folding table in stock, as fans descended on the Orchard Park parking lot the night of the victory, even in the dead of Western New York winter.

Will the Bills win it all in real life? Well, we can't guarantee that. According to our 20,000 FPI simulations, they have a 9.4% chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy, the third-best odds in the NFL behind the Chiefs (19.2%) and Buccaneers (14.1%). But no matter what, Buffalo will always have Simulation No. 13,330.