Bills vs Colts Week 11: The Aftermath

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, Foxx said:

We did not fundamentally change from a 13-3 team that we were last year. We not only brought back everyone from that team that mattered, we had what appears to be a good draft, and brought in a couple free agents that should fill some of the holes that were on last years team.

 

Obviously not everything is equal at this stage, other teams have changed how they play us. But to that end, another year in the system should make up for that to a degree.

 

I don't pretend to know what the answer or solution is, I just think we are not that far removed from being who we were last year, or better.

If you think back to last year, we had the same problems we have this year as well.

Can't run the ball, can't stop the run when it's being done by a moderately efficient opponent.

 

We have issues with physical DL and OL, still. The picks they used on DL the past couple drafts have borne NO fruit. Ed's been better, but it's not enough, IMO. Basham's had no play time, really, Groot had a good couple first games, has been quiet since and I don't know what Epenesa's issue is.

 

That's a LOT of draft capital spent on a whole lot of no production.

 

I'd rather they use FA for the DL this offseason and draft heavy offense, focusing on guards and tackles.

 

 

[Ann]

Full snap counts:

 

 

 

[Ann]

 

 

https://twitter.com/zvaughn2712/status/1462609432941051905

[Foxx]

56 minutes ago, Joe said:

If you think back to last year, we had the same problems we have this year as well.

Can't run the ball, can't stop the run when it's being done by a moderately efficient opponent.

 

We have issues with physical DL and OL, still. The picks they used on DL the past couple drafts have borne NO fruit. Ed's been better, but it's not enough, IMO. Basham's had no play time, really, Groot had a good couple first games, has been quiet since and I don't know what Epenesa's issue is.

 

That's a LOT of draft capital spent on a whole lot of no production.

 

I'd rather they use FA for the DL this offseason and draft heavy offense, focusing on guards and tackles.

 

 

While your arguments seem to be well founded, it is hard to put the finger on exactly what/why we don't seem to be as good as last year. Hopefully we can turn it around, there are still a lot of games to be played.

[Foxx]

Before yesterday's game, I said that we could fall all the way to 9th place in the conference. That was wrong as two of the games had four of those fighting to climb ahead of us played. The farthest we could have fallen in the seedings was seventh. Which, is exactly where we are, seventh.

[Joe]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

Before yesterday's game, I said that we could fall all the way to 9th place in the conference. That was wrong as two of the games had four of those fighting to climb ahead of us played. The farthest we could have fallen in the seedings was seventh. Which, is exactly where we are, seventh.

 

I had mentioned earlier in the week we could fall to 7. Someone here erroneously declared that 6th was the worst that can happen.

 

We're definitely on the bubble at this point, no room for error.

 

Let's see if they have the makeup to survive this.

 

[Arm of Harm]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

We did not fundamentally change from a 13-3 team that we were last year. We not only brought back everyone from that team that mattered, we had what appears to be a good draft, and brought in a couple free agents that should fill some of the holes that were on last years team.

 

Obviously not everything is equal at this stage, other teams have changed how they play us. But to that end, another year in the system should make up for that to a degree.

 

I don't pretend to know what the answer or solution is, I just think we are not that far removed from being who we were last year, or better.

Um. It’s hard for me to make heads or tails of this year’s team. At its best this year’s team gets good contributions from the additions at DL, the defense as a whole plays very well, and the offense looks as good as it did last year. However, we haven’t seen this team at its best very often. 
 

The biggest downgrade has been the offense. The offensive line was not great last year, but at least it usually provided decent pass protection. That has not been the case this year. All five starting linemen have mediocre grades, and Cody Ford’s grade is downright bad. Last year Diggs was a special player. This year he’s a good player. At least Knox has improved, but that’s not enough to offset the downgrades the offense has seen elsewhere. 
 

If the defense has a weakness, it’s the unwillingness of the coaching staff to change the scheme to adapt to power running teams. That weakness was definitely exposed against the Colts. However, the main thing dragging this year’s team down has been the offense. Can the offensive line and Diggs start playing the same way this year that they had last year? If they can, this team can indeed get back on track. If they can’t, then Joe’s predictions are going to turn out to be a lot more accurate than we’d like. 

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino/status/1462802004049379341

 

[Foxx]

5 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

If the defense has a weakness, it’s the unwillingness of the coaching staff to change the scheme to adapt to power running teams.

It's too bad we'll never know if they would have played a 4-3 had Edmunds suited up yesterday. You would almost think they would of had to but...

[snafu]

2 hours ago, Joe said:

 

3-4 is my call.

 

Wins against Jets, Atlanta and Saints.

 

Losses to Pats x2, Tampa, Carolina

 

9-8 after starting 4-1.

 

 

Will we still be In The Hunt at Christmastime?

I used to consider that a successful season.  I can adjust my expectations now and enjoy the rest of the ride.

 

 

 

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

Will we still be In The Hunt at Christmastime?

I used to consider that a successful season.  I can adjust my expectations now and enjoy the rest of the ride.

 

 

 

 

Ouch lol

 

[Arm of Harm]

46 minutes ago, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino/status/1462802004049379341

 

The scary thing is that Spencer Brown has a mediocre grade. (As do the other four starting linemen.) He’s a rookie and might well improve. But if he doesn’t I wouldn’t consider him part of the long-term solution, at least not as a starter. It’s scary that this line is this reliant on a guy with a mediocre grade.

 

The majority of NFL QBs get the ball out faster than Josh Allen does. One of the reasons Bill Walsh created the West Coast offense in the first place was to compensate for bad offensive line play. Get the ball out quickly so that you can get by with below-average pass protection. 
 

But Josh Allen is not a West Coast QB. He’s at his best in an offense which emphasizes intermediate to deep passes, and those take time to develop. In order to give him that time you need an above-average offensive line. It doesn’t have to be a bunch of Pro Bowlers or anything. But, you want each of your starters to be above-average at his position. To achieve that the Bills will need to replace all five of their offensive linemen. If they draft a very good LT, then Dawkins could slide in to guard, thus improving two positions at once. If you assume success for Dawkins at guard and assume improvement for Spencer Brown, you’d only need to add three players to get the above-average offensive line I envision. 

[Joe]

1 hour ago, Arm of Harm said:

Um. It’s hard for me to make heads or tails of this year’s team. At its best this year’s team gets good contributions from the additions at DL, the defense as a whole plays very well, and the offense looks as good as it did last year. However, we haven’t seen this team at its best very often. 
 

The biggest downgrade has been the offense. The offensive line was not great last year, but at least it usually provided decent pass protection. That has not been the case this year. All five starting linemen have mediocre grades, and Cody Ford’s grade is downright bad. Last year Diggs was a special player. This year he’s a good player. At least Knox has improved, but that’s not enough to offset the downgrades the offense has seen elsewhere. 
 

If the defense has a weakness, it’s the unwillingness of the coaching staff to change the scheme to adapt to power running teams. That weakness was definitely exposed against the Colts. However, the main thing dragging this year’s team down has been the offense. Can the offensive line and Diggs start playing the same way this year that they had last year? If they can, this team can indeed get back on track. If they can’t, then Joe’s predictions are going to turn out to be a lot more accurate than we’d like. 

 

This right here is why I want all draft assets spent on offense.

 

Use FA to shore up the DT position

 

[Arm of Harm]

31 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

This right here is why I want all draft assets spent on offense.

 

Use FA to shore up the DT position

 

 

Hypothetically speaking, suppose the Bills do the following. 1st round pick: LT. 2nd round pick: C. 3rd round pick: 1 tech DT. The offensive line would then look like the following:

 

LT: 1st round pick

LG: Dawkins

C : 2nd round pick

RG: Williams

RT: Spencer Brown

 

If any of Dawkins, Williams, or Brown disappoint, you address the OL again in the 2023 draft. In the meantime you've added a 3rd round 1 tech DT. The Bills' approach to the DL is very rotational. As long as this 3rd round DT is good enough to deserve snaps as part of the rotation, he's a successful pick.

[Uncle Joe]

     Last year I heard that if the defense was only better we would be in the Super Bowl. With a healthy D this year we are better with Star back. But, we don't win against physical run 1st offenses. I put that on coaching (read 4-3) and not having a replacement behind Zimmer.
     This year the offense just doesn't have the swagger it had last year. In a close games last year we knew they were going to march down the field and score. I don't watch the All-22 so I don't know if a 34 year old Sanders is an improvement. Does he get open and Josh doesn't get him the ball? Or would a younger, faster receiver open the field up some more. We all know the O-line deficiencies but good O coordinators adjust to the pieces they are given. 

     Lastly, 2017 McD brought in the process in and discipline that is sorely lacking this year. The false starts, the fumbles, the poor tackling all cost us yesterday. Time for McD to get this team back to the basics.

Edited November 22, 2021 by Uncle Joe
Has anyone checked to see if Virgil and Shaw have a pulse?

[Core Four]

23 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

     Last year I heard that if the defense was only better we would be in the Super Bowl. With a healthy D this year we are better with Star back. But, we don't win against physical run 1st offenses. I put that on coaching (read 4-3) and not having a replacement behind Zimmer.
     This year the offense just doesn't have the swagger it had last year. In a close games last year we knew they were going to march down the field and score. I don't watch the All-22 so I don't know if a 34 year old Sanders is an improvement. Does he get open and Josh doesn't get him the ball? Or would a younger, faster receiver open the field up some more. We all know the O-line deficiencies but good O coordinators adjust to the pieces they are given. 

     Lastly, 2017 McD brought in the process in and discipline that is sorely lacking this year. The false starts, the fumbles, the poor tackling all cost us yesterday. Time for McD to get this team back to the basics.

 

The defense is largely the same from last year, Frazier did not change up his scheme as he is pretty stubborn about that.  We are better personnel-wise with Star back (who would be, at best, a rotation piece on teams like Pitt and Tenn) and drafting Rousseau and Basham.  But there are still the same long standing issues with the D.

 

The biggest change, IMO, deals with the offense.  The OLine is weaker now than last year, and last year they were marginal run blocking to ok pass blocking.  The better coaches have figured out how to stop Josh Allen using two deep safeties and applying pressure from Josh's right side.  They don't fear the run since Daboll doesn't plan a lot of runs.  Daboll needs to assess what he can do differently to counter the fact teams have figured out his scheme.

 

The lack of discipline, all around, this year is concerning.  McD seems to always stress fundamentals, getting better, etc in his pressers, but things rarely change in the upcoming games.  My personal opinion is that McD is a good coach to change the culture and get a team from suck to respectable, but he will not win a SB.

[Ninety-4]

Had the Bills lost a close one yesterday and beat the Jags and Steelers, I'd be very bullish on the season, and those other 2 wins should have happened.  The actual record is troubling and filled with inconsistency.  They're under achieving and if I'm Beane I have to go to my buddy Sean the head coach and tell him in not so nice terms to fix this shit.  Beane owns some of this but this roster should have a better record. 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Ninety-4

[Foxx]

3 minutes ago, Ninety-4 said:

Had the Bills lost a close one yesterday and beat the Jag and Steelers, I'd be very bullish on the season, and those other 2 wins should have happened.  The actual record is troubling and filled with inconsistency.  They're under achieving and if I'm Beane I have to go to my buddy Sean the head coach and tell him in not so nice terms to fix this shit.  Beane owns some of this but this roster should have a better record. 

If Josh steps right instead of left on their final offensive play against Tennessee, we probably win that game as well.

[Seasons1992]

3 hours ago, snafu said:

 

Will we still be In The Hunt at Christmastime?

I used to consider that a successful season.  I can adjust my expectations now and enjoy the rest of the ride.

 

 

 

 

Willie speaks the truth here......

[RkFast]

My biggest concern is that this coaching staff has been utterly Rexian the last few weeks, if not longer.

 

1. They are arrogant. They refuse to make adjustments, try different formations/packages that are better suited to the situation, mix personnel, get players involved (Gabe Davis, anyone? SIX targets for DIGGS??!!!??) or ride a hot hand (Hey, Brieda had 30 yards on 3 carries. Sit him!). Getting cute with the inactive list week to week with some players left on the bus have been just baffling.

2. The team itself is coming out flat and unprepared week after week.  Even other teams are noticing it. 

3. The inmates run the asylum. Players too concerned with their social media quotient, the dancing, the clownery, on and on. Cute when youre winning big. Now? Not really. And of course...the whole vaccine situation. 

4. Terrible clock management, inconsistent thought processes for when to kick and go for it, etc. 

5. A very large number of players outright regressing. 

 

Im NOT saying they should go and Im NOT putting them on the same shelf as Ryan's terrible regime overall. Im just saying that lately, theres just been so many decisions that make even dummies like me go "what the hell are they doing?" 

 

Flame away.....

Edited November 22, 2021 by RkFast