draft 22 Buffalo Bills 2022 Draft Pick: Round 2, Pick #63: RB - James Cook - Georgia

[TakeYouToTasker 2.0]

On 5/2/2022 at 2:50 PM, Alaska Darin said:

I'm not nearly as concerned about the OLine as you are, especially with Saffold and Kromer in the mix now. 

 

I 100% agree on DC.  It does look like they're trying to do some different things based on the draft/FA personnel but I have little faith in Frazier when the game is on the line.

McDermott and Beane have earned my benefit of the doubt.

 

I’ve heard, from multiple sources, that “13 seconds” was held to heart by many on the team, and caused a real rift that needed to be mended.

 

I believe that Frazier schemed to the personel group he had, and that the complete retooling of our defensive line speaks to the conversations that were had, and how the mending began.

 

I am taking a wait and see approach.

[Spartacus]

13 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

McDermott and Beane have earned my benefit of the doubt.

 

I’ve heard, from multiple sources, that “13 seconds” was held to heart by many on the team, and caused a real rift that needed to be mended.

 

I believe that Frazier schemed to the personel group he had, and that the complete retooling of our defensive line speaks to the conversations that were had, and how the mending began.

 

I am taking a wait and see approach.

Elam was also critical as he gives them press cover capabilities they did not have

trash on Frazier, but would be pretty stupid to play press coverage with personnel who couldn't execute 

[Arm of Harm]

14 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

McDermott and Beane have earned my benefit of the doubt.

 

I’ve heard, from multiple sources, that “13 seconds” was held to heart by many on the team, and caused a real rift that needed to be mended.

 

I believe that Frazier schemed to the personel group he had, and that the complete retooling of our defensive line speaks to the conversations that were had, and how the mending began.

 

I am taking a wait and see approach.

 

You are far more generous in your assessment of Frazier than I. If you define a stop as a punt or turnover, Frazier’s defense generated two stops the whole game. If you look at the Chiefs’ last eight games of the regular season, only twice did an opposing defense generate two or less stops. So that puts Frazier’s defense in the bottom quartile. In the playoffs, the Steelers and Bengals defenses each generated six stops: triple the production of Frazier’s defense. 
 

Is the Bills defense bottom quartile in terms of talent? By no means! But, the game plan against the Chiefs was definitely bottom quartile. It was basically the same failed game plan Frazier had used a year earlier in the AFC Championship. 

[TakeYouToTasker 2.0]

7 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

You are far more generous in your assessment of Frazier than I. If you define a stop as a punt or turnover, Frazier’s defense generated two stops the whole game. If you look at the Chiefs’ last eight games of the regular season, only twice did an opposing defense generate two or less stops. So that puts Frazier’s defense in the bottom quartile. In the playoffs, the Steelers and Bengals defenses each generated six stops: triple the production of Frazier’s defense. 
 

Is the Bills defense bottom quartile in terms of talent? By no means! But, the game plan against the Chiefs was definitely bottom quartile. It was basically the same failed game plan Frazier had used a year earlier in the AFC Championship. 

I find it very difficult to conclude that not shutting down Patrick freaking Mahomes is a reasonable barometer for measuring the quality of a Defensive Coordinator.

[Alaska Darin]

1 hour ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

I find it very difficult to conclude that not shutting down Patrick freaking Mahomes is a reasonable barometer for measuring the quality of a Defensive Coordinator.

What about Carson Wentz or Jared Goff?   😄

[Nanker]

12 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

What about Carson Wentz or Jared Goff?   😄

Or JarJar Binks?

Edited May 4, 2022 by Nanker

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

5 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

What about Carson Wentz or Jared Goff?   😄

 

I don't think shutting down Mahomes is a reasonable barometer for them either.

[Arm of Harm]

1 hour ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

I find it very difficult to conclude that not shutting down Patrick freaking Mahomes is a reasonable barometer for measuring the quality of a Defensive Coordinator.

That is not the point I was making. If you go back and reread my post, you’ll see that I compared the performance of the Bills’ defense to the performances of other defenses the Chiefs faced. Based on that comparison, Frazier’s defense was bottom 25% (if comparing to the last eight games of regular season only) or bottom 20% (if the Chiefs’ other two postseason opponents are also included). The Chiefs achieved more against the Bills defense, than they did against 80% of the other defenses they faced. 

[TakeYouToTasker 2.0]

28 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

That is not the point I was making. If you go back and reread my post, you’ll see that I compared the performance of the Bills’ defense to the performances of other defenses the Chiefs faced. Based on that comparison, Frazier’s defense was bottom 25% (if comparing to the last eight games of regular season only) or bottom 20% (if the Chiefs’ other two postseason opponents are also included). The Chiefs achieved more against the Bills defense, than they did against 80% of the other defenses they faced. 

 

Patrick Mahomes gets paid too.

 

And there’s a good argument that he’s the very best in the league.

 

Again, a defense not performing well against him is not in any way an indictment of it’s coordinator.

[Arm of Harm]

50 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

 

Patrick Mahomes gets paid too.

 

And there’s a good argument that he’s the very best in the league.

 

Again, a defense not performing well against him is not in any way an indictment of it’s coordinator.

 

None of that is relevant to the point I’m making. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

48 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

 

Patrick Mahomes gets paid too.

 

And there’s a good argument that he’s the very best in the league.

 

Again, a defense not performing well against him is not in any way an indictment of it’s coordinator.

 

Yes, but...

 

Look at these defensive alignments.

 

 

Mahomes may have called the plays to take advantage of that shit defense...but it was a shit defense.  Both alignments seemed to presume that each play would be the final play of the game...against a team with Mahomes and three times-out?  

 

It was dumb defense.  The only excuse I can see for it is that they may have presumed on "Andy Reid Clock Management," which clearly wasn't the case.

[Spartacus]

4 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Yes, but...

 

Look at these defensive alignments.

 

 

Mahomes may have called the plays to take advantage of that shit defense...but it was a shit defense.  Both alignments seemed to presume that each play would be the final play of the game...against a team with Mahomes and three times-out?  

 

It was dumb defense.  The only excuse I can see for it is that they may have presumed on "Andy Reid Clock Management," which clearly wasn't the case.

 

check out the Levi Wallace interview

he basically admits that the players (him mostly) just assumed where each other in the secondary was 

and did not actually check visually to see where they were lined up and if they were all on the same page (they weren't)

 

[Core Four]

15 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

It was dumb defense.  The only excuse I can see for it is that they may have presumed on "Andy Reid Clock Management," which clearly wasn't the case.

 

Yep.  Sean Payton referred to it as "criminal,"  he wasn't wrong.  

[TakeYouToTasker 2.0]

1 hour ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

None of that is relevant to the point I’m making. 

It’s wildly relevant.

 

Are you sure you know what point you’re making?

[Arm of Harm]

6 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

It’s wildly relevant.

 

Are you sure you know what point you’re making?

This is a football discussion board. I don’t expect everyone to agree with me on all issues. If you and I see this differently, fine. But, if you’re going to describe one of my arguments, I’d ask that you describe it correctly. 
 

The argument I’d made:

In the divisional playoff game, the Bills defense generated two stops. In the Chiefs’ ten most recent non-Bills games, defenses did better than that 80% of the time. The Bills’ defensive effort was bottom 20%. 
 

My argument as described by you:

 

Leslie Frazier deserves criticism for failing to shut down Patrick Mahomes, even though other defensive coordinators haven’t been able to shut him down either. 
 

Not only are those two arguments not the same thing, there is no overlap. Neither argument has anything to do with the other.
 

If you point out that Patrick Mahomes gets paid, that’s relevant to him having success against defenses in general. But Mahomes getting paid is not an explanation as to why 80% of other defenses have been more successful against him than has the Bills defense.  

 

If I had to use words to describe Leslie Frazier’s game plan against the Chiefs, the words which come to mind are weak, uncreative, submissive, play not to lose. It was soft zone, meaning that you’re not really challenging short to intermediate throws. It was contain, meaning that it was deemed more important to contain Mahomes’ running, than it was to generate pressure or sacks. Frazier didn’t ask defenders to bump WRs or TEs, so no disruption in the timing of routes. In short he was doing nothing to stop the Chiefs. To the extent that Frazier can be said to have had a “strategy,” that strategy consisted of hoping the Chiefs would make a mistake and stop themselves. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

1 hour ago, TakeYouToTasker 2.0 said:

It’s wildly relevant.

 

Are you sure you know what point you’re making?

 

He's the only person here I have blocked.

 

Almost entirely for abuse of math with made-up statistics.

[Uncle Joe]

I wonder if Dalvin Cook knows Tangent is city in Oregon.

Is he going to play defense?

[Arm of Harm]

1 hour ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

He's the only person here I have blocked.

 

Almost entirely for abuse of math with made-up statistics.

 

Our most prolific statistics-related argument occurred years ago, on ATOP. At the time, I'd described the regression effect. You ridiculed my explanation, as well as me personally. I provided a link to a Hyperstats article which made the same point I was making. You ridiculed the Hyperstats article. I then provided a link to a Stanford article, which said the same thing I'd been saying and that the Hyperstats article had said. You voiced agreement with the Stanford article, while maintaining your claim that both my original post and the Hyperstats article had been wrong. You did not articulate the difference you saw between the Stanford article on the one hand, and the Hyperstats article on the other. You did not do that because it could not be done. The two articles made exactly the same point, which was identical to my initial point.  

 

On this board, I've periodically bestowed likes or other favorable reactions on your posts, including a post in this thread. I will continue to do so despite our past differences, and despite the fact I now know you've blocked me.

 

____Attn. board members: do not read past this point unless you're interested in statistics______

 

The regression effect is as follows:

Step 1: create some sort of a test. The results of this test are based partly on something innate, such as skill. But the results are also based partly on chance or luck.

Step 2: Administer this test to the population as a whole, or to a random sample of the population.

Step 3: Establish some kind of cutoff score. Anyone who scores above the cutoff gets put into a group. Everyone who scores below the cutoff gets ignored.

Step 4: Retest those who'd scored above the cutoff.

 

On the retest, people will, on average, get lower scores than they'd received the first time around. Why? Because the group being retested was selected on the basis of their high initial test scores. Test scores are determined in part by luck, so the group you selected will, on average, have had good luck the first time they took the test. When they retake the test, their luck will, on average, be neutral. This creates the illusion the group is "regressing." Hence the name "regression effect," or "regression towards the mean." 

[Fansince88]

To think, I came over here to read about our new RB? 🤔 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

9 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

Our most prolific statistics-related argument occurred years ago, on ATOP. At the time, I'd described the regression effect. You ridiculed my explanation, as well as me personally.

 

That was you?

 

I ridiculed you and your argument because your argument was ridiculous, and you are ridiculous .  Get back to me when you roll a 3.5 on a die.

 

Although "Dinosaurs were truculent because they ate silicate plants and resembled rhinos" was your real low point.