Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - A Few Thoughts about the Bucs Game, in no particular order

[snafu]

1 hour ago, Core Four said:

 

Careful with relying on stats to give credence to how good this defense supposedly is.  A lot of those stats are padded against the very bad teams we played in NYJ, Miami (at the time), Houston, NO.  I prefer to look at how the D did against the better teams we faced - Tenn, Indy, NE, Pitt, KC (which they did well).  I don't think this defense has been playing that good, and a lot of that is coaching and scheme.

 

It seems McD may have got involved more than usual when he saw the game was starting to get away from them.  Leslie doesn't adjust pretty much ever, and it's frustrating.  This team is better than its record, just that the coordinators won't let that show.  Note that Frazier started in zone coverage against Brady...wtf.  Brady eats zone coverage like he eats blitzes.  It's like Frazier never played Brady, though he is now 0-7 against him as the Bills DC.  The way to beat Brady is sending pressure up the middle, which the Bills didn't do, but maybe if you can effectively collapse the pocket Brady doesn't like that either.  

 

First, the numbers after 13 games are pretty indicative of the defense.  Second, they're averaged.  If you want to weight the numbers, that's fine.  But every team plays "good" opponents, and "bad" opponents.

 

You wrote  "Note that Frazier started in zone coverage against Brady...wtf.  Brady eats zone coverage like he eats blitzes." So what you're saying is that D-Line containment + man coverage works on Brady -- because that's what shut him down.  The Bills didn't change their pass rush but it definitely became more effective as the game wore on.

 

The conclusion is that the Bills didn't win -- so at then end of the day you're right in that something went wrong.  IMO, you're putting way too much blame on the coaching.  Great coaching and great talent generally doesn't get results against Brady.  Good coaching and pretty good talent even less so.  The Bills' defense on Sunday stumbled out of the blocks and then shut Brady down.  Even pretty good coaches come out in a bad scheme, but bad coaches don't adjust like that.  And if I recall, the adjustment was made before halftime.  That third TD came after a complete prayer from Brady to Evans.

 

 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, Core Four said:

 

Careful with relying on stats to give credence to how good this defense supposedly is.  A lot of those stats are padded against the very bad teams we played in NYJ, Miami (at the time), Houston, NO.  I prefer to look at how the D did against the better teams we faced - Tenn, Indy, NE, Pitt, KC (which they did well).  I don't think this defense has been playing that good, and a lot of that is coaching and scheme.

 

It seems McD may have got involved more than usual when he saw the game was starting to get away from them.  Leslie doesn't adjust pretty much ever, and it's frustrating.  This team is better than its record, just that the coordinators won't let that show.

 

So, your post gave me the impetus to crunch some numbers and put them into a table for display purposes. I'm sure different sites have different totals so the exact numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. They should, however, be fairly close.

 

I'm not sure what they mean or really show but, and keep in mind that we have one win more than loss. It would seem that the offensive totals have a far greater discrepancy than the defensive totals. Again, not sure exactly what that says but to me at least, it says that the offense is the greater issue here.  

 

 

Team	O-Run	O-Pass	D-run	D-Pass	O-Total	D-Total
Pittsburgh	117	254	75	177	371	252
Miami	143	171	71	145	314	246
Washington	122	359	78	212	481	290
Houston	199	251	48	61	450	109
Kansas City	121	315	120	272	436	392
Tennessee	82	335	146	216	417	362
Miami	102	249	68	194	351	262
Jacksonville	72	229	79	139	301	218
NYJ	139	350	70	296	489	366
Indianapolis	91	220	264	106	311	370
New Orleans	113	248	44	146	361	190
New England	99	131	222	19	230	241
Tampa Bay	173	293	137	351	466	488
Carolina	-	-	-	-	-	-
New England	-	-	-	-	-	-
Atlanta	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	-	-	-	-	-	-
Team	O-Run	O-Pass	D-run	D-Pass	O-Total	D-Total
Total:	1532	3483	1419	2483	5015	3782
Wins:	898	2021	496	1375	2919	1851
Losses:	634	1462	923	1008	2096	1931

[Core Four]

5 minutes ago, snafu said:

The Bills didn't change their pass rush but it definitely became more effective as the game wore on.

 

No, they didn't change the rush scheme.  But something changed where the pocket started to collapse and Brady had less time to throw.  Most of the first half, Brady had all day to throw.  They started out in zone coverage, then switched to man.  Not sure why man coverage wasn't the plan from the beginning.  So, yeah, the scheme/plan/coaching was a big issue at the beginning of the game.

 

This staff seems to favor contain, it's what they subscribe to and are comfortable with.  Whatever they did at the end of the first half on regarding the adjusting rush seemed to work.  Teams like the Ravens, Broncos, and NYG brought pressure up the middle and were successful at making Brady uncomfortable in the pocket.  The Giants won two SBs employing this tactic.  Maybe there are multiple ways to beat Brady.

[snafu]

17 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

So, your post gave me the impetus to crunch some numbers and put them into a table for display purposes. I'm sure different sites have different totals so the exact numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. They should, however, be fairly close.

 

I'm not sure what they mean or really show but, and keep in mind that we have one win more than loss. It would seem that the offensive totals have a far greater discrepancy than the defensive totals. Again, not sure exactly what that says but to me at least, it says that the offense is the greater issue here.  

 

 

Team	O-Run	O-Pass	D-run	D-Pass	O-Total	D-Total
Pittsburgh	117	254	75	177	371	252
Miami	143	171	71	145	314	246
Washington	122	359	78	212	481	290
Houston	199	251	48	61	450	109
Kansas City	121	315	120	272	436	392
Tennessee	82	335	146	216	417	362
Miami	102	249	68	194	351	262
Jacksonville	72	229	79	139	301	218
NYJ	139	350	70	296	489	366
Indianapolis	91	220	264	106	311	370
New Orleans	113	248	44	146	361	190
New England	99	131	222	19	230	241
Tampa Bay	173	293	137	351	466	488
Carolina	-	-	-	-	-	-
New England	-	-	-	-	-	-
Atlanta	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	-	-	-	-	-	-
Team	O-Run	O-Pass	D-run	D-Pass	O-Total	D-Total
Total:	1532	3483	1419	2483	5015	3782
Wins:	898	2021	496	1375	2919	1851
Losses:	634	1462	923	1008	2096	1931

 

 

 

Tennessee, one bad breakdown on D (run D).  New England, one bad breakdown on D (run D).  Tampa Bay, two bad breakdowns on D (one run, one pass D).  AND everyone says the Bills run offense is putrid -- yet they've given up fewer total yards to the run game on defense.  It really comes down to those big plays (and real bad games against Jacksonville and Indianapolis).

 

The offense couldn't overcome those big plays in the other three games.  I suppose it is a team sport after all.

 

 

 

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

3 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

 

 

Tennessee, one bad breakdown on D.  New England, one bad breakdown on D.  Tampa Bay, two bad breakdowns on D.

The offense couldn't overcome those.  I suppose it is a team sport after all.

 

 

 

 

Pittsburgh, one bad breakdown on ST the offense couldn't overcome.

[snafu]

2 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Pittsburgh, one bad breakdown on ST the offense couldn't overcome.

 

I completely discount that game.  If anything -- that's the one where the blame should really be on the coaches for not having the team ready for game 1 of the season.

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

1 minute ago, snafu said:

 

I completely discount that game.  If anything -- that's the one where the blame should really be on the coaches for not having the team ready for game 1 of the season.

 

 

True, but the difference was still a blocked punt returned for a TD.

 

They have about four losses that came down to less than ten failed plays.  

[Foxx]

9 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

 

 

Tennessee, one bad breakdown on D (run D).  New England, one bad breakdown on D (run D).  Tampa Bay, two bad breakdowns on D (one run, one pass D).  AND everyone says the Bills run offense is putrid -- yet they've given up fewer total yards to the run game on defense.  It really comes down to those big plays (and real bad games against Jacksonville and Indianapolis).

 

The offense couldn't overcome those big plays in the other three games.  I suppose it is a team sport after all.

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure I'm understanding completely.

 

Yes we have given up fewer yards in the run game but then again this is a passing league so we should be giving up less yards to the run defensively. The run and pass numbers are pretty close but as is pointed out, remove a few plays and the discrepancy is a bit greater. I am not really a fan of the shoulda, woulda, coulda thing, so for me, the numbers are what they are.  And to me, the glaring discrepancy between the wins and losses, lies in the offensive totals. 

[Core Four]

@Foxx Interesting table, thanks for taking the time to do this.

 

To me, this further reinforces the fact that we cannot stop the run, the D-run totals are nearly double in wins vs losses totals.  Notice how the D-Pass totals are 1375 vs 1008 in wins vs losses, teams generally don't have to throw to beat us.

 

Agree that the offense is still the larger problem, and that is due to the Oline vastly underperforming vs last year.

[snafu]

22 minutes ago, Foxx said:

I'm not sure I'm understanding completely.

 

Yes we have given up fewer yards in the run game but then again this is a passing league so we should be giving up less yards to the run defensively. The run and pass numbers are pretty close but as is pointed out, remove a few plays and the discrepancy is a bit greater. I am not really a fan of the shoulda, woulda, coulda thing, so for me, the numbers are what they are.  And to me, the glaring discrepancy between the wins and losses, lies in the offensive totals. 

 

Not the way I see your chart.  Look at "D-run: losses"  vs. "D-run: wins".  Three of those losses (Tenn, NE, TB) contained three huge runs which were the differences in each game.  It isn't shoulda, woulda, coulda.  The run defense isn't horrid without those three runs.