2021 Cap Decrease + Possible Consequences [Cap is set at $182.5M]

[Just Joshin]

2 hours ago, Ann said:

I'd like to see this year without a cap, while knowing what the 2022 cap will be (new TV contract). I think a lot of teams could work with that.

 

Maybe not without a cap but split the difference between this year and the lower, projected cap.  So maybe this is 185 million based on 195 this year and 175 projection.

[Ann]

5 minutes ago, Just Joshin said:

Maybe not without a cap but split the difference between this year and the lower, projected cap.  So maybe this is 185 million based on 195 this year and 175 projection.

I posted an article where that was an idea being considered. The expectation for 2022 was 220M, so meeting in the middle would be no less than this year.

So instead of

195
175
220

It would be

195
195
200



 

[Fansince88]

On 1/29/2021 at 8:23 AM, ComradeKayAdams said:

Until we receive further updates from the NFL on COVID-related cap alterations, here is where we currently stand:

 

Projected salary cap (worst case), including Buffalo’s rollover from last season: $178.7 million

Buffalo’s gross 2021 roster salary with the top 51 contracts: $181.9 million

Buffalo’s total dead money this year: $2.8 million

Buffalo’s net amount OVER the cap: $6.0 million

 

Market value of our 3 main UFA’s: Very tough to evaluate at this point in time, but I’ll give it a shot! I’m guessing that Feliciano will command about $5 million annually (salary + signing bonus), Milano at least $12 million, and Daryl Williams as much as $14 million because of the position he plays. If the expected 2021 cap doesn’t rise, Beane will likely be faced with choosing either Milano or Williams but not both.

 

Other expensive free agents to sign: based on Brandon Beane’s end-of-season press conference, I don’t anticipate there being any. For the most part, I agree with Mr. Beane here. A “BPA” draft policy, combined with intelligent scheme adjustments from the coaches, should be enough to fill in almost all of the remaining roster holes (including RB and CB). The one exception, in my opinion, is at DE. I hope the Bills explore trade options and 1-year “prove-it” deals for Pro Bowl-caliber players like Jadeveon Clowney. The reduced league salary cap due to COVID might have the effect of suppressing contracts for many quality veterans flooding the market from the cap-strapped teams.

 

Cap space needed for bargain-basement free agent depth signings: I’m completely guessing here when I say that Beane will probably only need another $4-6 million or so for this category of players. Remember how the top-51 NFL salary cap rule works! The cap space allotment for every new signing is either $0 added to the team total if that player is not among the top 51 most expensive contracts, or it is his annual contract minus the contract cost of the 51st player already on the roster. I expect 3 of the in-house RFA’s to be tendered contracts (Bojorquez, Boettger, Wallace) and 7 of the inexpensive in-house UFA’s to be offered market value contracts (Barkley, Yeldon, Taiwan Jones, Roberts, McKenzie, Norman, Marlowe).

 

Additional cap space reserved for 2021 draft picks: I don’t know exact numbers, but it will be under $3 million because our earliest pick is 30th and because the team already has a full roster of 51 players under contract.

 

Comrade Kay’s Cap Casualty Conclusions: Looking over the 54-player 2021 roster payroll, I see no more than 11 players who would fit the suitable criteria to become cap casualties (large enough savings beyond own replacement cost, minimal dead money):

 

Brown: $7.9 million saved, $1.6 million dead money

Hughes: $7.4 million saved, $2.1 million dead money

Butler: $6.8 million saved, $1.0 million dead money

Jefferson: $6.5 million saved, $1.5 million dead money

Addison: $6.2 million saved, $4.0 million dead money

Poyer: $5.9 million saved, $2.0 million dead money

Hyde: $5.1 million saved, $1.6 million dead money

Morse: $4.8 million saved, $5.5 million dead money

Beasley: $4.4 million saved, $3.0 million dead money

Matakevich: $3.3 million saved, $0.4 million dead money

Smith: $2.3 million saved, $0.0 million dead money

 

I seriously doubt Poyer, Hyde, Morse, or Beasley get cut. They are all good candidates for contract restructuring. Matakevich and Smith could be cut, but most likely they will restructure or accept modest reductions in pay. I am a huge proponent of keeping John Brown, but he has a salary cap bullseye on his back if he doesn’t agree to a major pay cut or some significant form of contract restructuring. The 4 DL are interesting…they will collectively take up $35.5 million in cap space (20% of the total roster cap!) with $26.9 potential cap savings and $8.6 million dead cap. Simply put, their 2020 production (12.5 regular season sacks among the 4 of them) didn’t match their contract-based expectations. Frazier and McDermott are Jim Johnson disciples who rely heavily on their 4-man fronts to generate pass rush. While I realize sacks aren’t the be-all and end-all of DL performance metrics, the sack artists are normally the ones who garner the largest contracts on the free agent market. Oliver, Jefferson, and Addison must either accept massive pay cuts or be traded/released. Hughes would be a good candidate for a contract restructuring.

Great post! 

[Fansince88]

7 hours ago, Ann said:

I doubt the Bills can afford to keep him:

Link to article
 

<snip>
 

In the latest Stacking the Box column, FanSided’s national NFL reporter Matt Verderame has heard from a source that linebacker Matt Milano is looking for “top dollar” in free agency.
 

“Per source, Milano is looking for top-dollar at his position,”  writes Verderame. “Although he’s without Pro Bowl or All-Pro accolades, Milano has been a playmaker and culture-maker. The fourth-year man has racked up 101 tackles in 2019 and then 3.5 sacks and win hits in 2020, while providing quality coverage. He’ll have a strong market.”
 

</snip>

we were a different team when Matt played. That said, he didn't play enough for me to grant him a huge contract. Hope this years cap keeps him low. We  shall see.

[Ann]

If this post by @HOUSE is correct, it looks like it might go down slightly
Maybe they will "borrow" from 2022 (expected to be 220M) to get it back to 195M?

 

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

 

[Ann]

Cover 1 Buffalo Bills Salary Cap Special

 

 

[Ann]

This is a The Athletic article. Paid subscription. It is well worth the money if you ask me.

Anyhoooo Joey B has an article on who he thinks stays and goes based on the salary cap. These are only his goes, and there is a lot more in the article.  I listed the savings for those he thinks goes. 

 

Bills outlook for 2021: Who stays and who goes from the current roster?
 

• WR John Brown (goes) Potential cap savings if released: ~$7.23 million
• DT Vernon Butler (goes, but could stay if Milano departs) Potential cap savings if released: ~$6.12 million
• DT Quinton Jefferson (goes) Potential cap savings if released: ~$5.8 million
• TE Lee Smith (goes) Potential cap savings if released: $1.55 million
• LB Matt Milano (goes at $175 million cap, but stays at $185 million cap)
• RT Daryl Williams (goes)
• DE Trent Murphy (goes)
• CB Josh Norman (goes)
• WR Andre Roberts (goes)
• RB T.J. Yeldon (goes)
• OT Ty Nsekhe (goes)
• TE Tyler Kroft (goes)

[Boyst]

On 2/5/2021 at 6:31 PM, Ann said:

This is a The Athletic article. Paid subscription. It is well worth the money if you ask me.

Anyhoooo Joey B has an article on who he thinks stays and goes based on the salary cap. These are only his goes, and there is a lot more in the article.  I listed the savings for those he thinks goes. 

 

Bills outlook for 2021: Who stays and who goes from the current roster?
 

• WR John Brown (goes) Potential cap savings if released: ~$7.23 million
• DT Vernon Butler (goes, but could stay if Milano departs) Potential cap savings if released: ~$6.12 million
• DT Quinton Jefferson (goes) Potential cap savings if released: ~$5.8 million
• TE Lee Smith (goes) Potential cap savings if released: $1.55 million
• LB Matt Milano (goes at $175 million cap, but stays at $185 million cap)
• RT Daryl Williams (goes)
• DE Trent Murphy (goes)
• CB Josh Norman (goes)
• WR Andre Roberts (goes)
• RB T.J. Yeldon (goes)
• OT Ty Nsekhe (goes)
• TE Tyler Kroft (goes)

Kroft, Yeldon, Nsekhe, Murphy, Jefferson... Go

 

Brown restructure.

 

Milano we get crafty on a contract

 

Butler stays.

 

Smith retires, Norman retires

 

Williams stays.

[GG1]

15 minutes ago, Boyst said:

Kroft, Yeldon, Nsekhe, Murphy, Jefferson... Go

 

Brown restructure.

 

Milano we get crafty on a contract

 

Butler stays.

 

Smith retires, Norman retires

 

Williams stays.

 

I didn't see much out of Butler to justify his stay.  His play is not a huge improvement over Harry at much higher cost.   Ideally, you cut both Butler & Jefferson and use the cap space to go after L Williams or Tomlinson (whichever the Giants don't keep)

 

 

[Boyst]

17 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

I didn't see much out of Butler to justify his stay.  His play is not a huge improvement over Harry at much higher cost.   Ideally, you cut both Butler & Jefferson and use the cap space to go after L Williams or Tomlinson (whichever the Giants don't keep)

 

 

I think butler can come cheap enough and trade bait later. He wasn't flashy, I agree

[Spartacus]

5 hours ago, Boyst said:

Kroft, Yeldon, Nsekhe, Murphy, Jefferson... Go

 

Brown restructure.

 

Milano we get crafty on a contract

 

Butler stays.

 

Smith retires, Norman retires

 

Williams stays.

agree that Williams stays

DL will have casualties if they can find improvements due to cap casualty 

as noted above, L Williams or Tomlinson, will be good targets

 

 

surprised that Joe B did not cut Singletary - he absolutely hates the guy 

must have burned him in fantasy

[Boyst]

3 hours ago, Spartacus said:

agree that Williams stays

DL will have casualties if they can find improvements due to cap casualty 

as noted above, L Williams or Tomlinson, will be good targets

 

 

surprised that Joe B did not cut Singletary - he absolutely hates the guy 

must have burned him in fantasy

He's on a rookie deal so he's cheap. What's disappointing is the guy has very little reps and evidently low exposure on special teams.

 

It seems like he might have had the tools to be a good return blocer

[Ann]

NFL wants to finalize new TV deals before setting 2021 salary cap in March
 

* The NFL wants to finalize new TV rights agreements with partners before setting its 2021 salary cap.
* The new pact could reach $100 billion.
* The NFL could also eliminate two preseason games as it prepares to add a 17-game season. But at least one exhibition will be removed if the game is included for 2021.
 

</snip>
 

The NFL is looking to finalize frameworks of new TV rights agreements in the next few weeks and wants to do so before setting the 2021 salary cap figure in March, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
 

The people asked not to be identified as they aren’t allowed to speak publicly about league affairs.
 

Network partners Fox, ViacomCBS, NBC and Disney’s ESPN pay the league roughly $6 billion per year, with AT&T-owned DirecTV adding another $1.5 billion for the Sunday Ticket package. It’s been widely rumored the next agreement could reach $100 billion via a 10-year deal. Other options include a seven-year deal at $14 billion per year or an eight-year deal at $12 billion per year.
 

</snip>
 

Packages are expected to remain similar, with Fox and CBS keeping Sunday afternoon games and NBC holding on to its Sunday Night Football package.

But ESPN is the wildcard.
 

ESPN+ is a contender to replace DirecTV for the NFL’s Sunday Ticket package, CNBC reported last year, and Disney also wants to be a part of the Super Bowl rotation. That means it could add games to its ABC network.
 

One of the individuals suggested part of the holdup to finalizing a new agreement is the NFL finding a new home for the Thursday Night Football package, which Fox currently holds but could drop the deal when it ends in 2023.
 

</snip>

 

[Ann]

https://twitter.com/GregTompsett/status/1361684695260495873

 

[Foxx]

Five players the Bills can cut to save $30 million in cap space

... Total savings from cutting those five: $29,912,980

 

Just like that, the Bills can free up $30 million in cap space which would certainly be enough to bring back Matt Milano, sign a few depth free agents, and afford their 2021 draft class. Last week after the J.J. Watt news broke, I outlined what it would take for the Bills to afford Watt. These five players are included in that plan, as well as one additional offensive starter that would have to be cut if they wanted to afford Watt. As it is, losing five players that saw a considerable amount of playing time on a team that had a 9-0 lead in the AFC Championship game is a tough pill to swallow, and one that might prove costly next season. The number of players that the Bills have to cut will be a storyline to watch all offseason. Regardless of who is cut, you can bet it will be an emotional decision for a team that considers itself, and prides itself, on being a family.

[B-Man]

 

 

Just out........

 

NFL increases 2021 salary cap minimum to $180 million

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30923265/nfl-increases-2021-salary-cap-minimum-180-million

 

The NFL has informed teams that the 2021 salary cap will be no lower than $180 million, a slight increase from last year's previous agreement between the league and the NFL Players Association.

 

The league told teams in a memo Thursday morning that $180 million is not the final 2021 cap figure, just an adjustment of the cap "floor" established last summer in negotiations between the NFL and the NFLPA.

 

 

 

 

[Ann]

51 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Just out........

 

NFL increases 2021 salary cap minimum to $180 million

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30923265/nfl-increases-2021-salary-cap-minimum-180-million

 

The NFL has informed teams that the 2021 salary cap will be no lower than $180 million, a slight increase from last year's previous agreement between the league and the NFL Players Association.

 

The league told teams in a memo Thursday morning that $180 million is not the final 2021 cap figure, just an adjustment of the cap "floor" established last summer in negotiations between the NFL and the NFLPA.

 

 

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1362405162023845893
 

[Ann]

A look at the salary cap carryover for 2021:

 

[Ann]

That’s a lotta cabbage

 

NFL reportedly seeking to double broadcast rights fees

 

</snip>
 

Alex Sherman of CNBC recently reported that the league hopes to double the broadcast rights feesfrom its network partners. Per the report, CBS, FOX, and NBC are “likely to accept increases closer to 100% than Disney.”

 

Disney (which owns ESPN and ABC) has rejected a 100-percent bump, citing the high price already paid for Monday Night Football.
 

</snip>

 

 

[Alaska Darin]

12 hours ago, Ann said:

Disney (which owns ESPN and ABC) has rejected a 100-percent bump, citing the high price already paid for Monday Night Football

 

Maybe thumbing your nose at people with jobs isn't the best way to do business, mousekateers?