NFL PLAYOFF MACHINE (updated weekly)

[Ann]

12 minutes ago, Chandemonium said:

Rosters aren’t big enough to sit all the guys you want to, plus the team will still be playing for the 2 seed. Some guys might get pulled early or rotated out more frequently depending on how our game is going and scoreboard watching the Steelers, but it’s not even possible to sit 4/5 of your starting o-line when there’s only 8 OL on the active roster. 

I can see an early pull, but I cannot see them sitting the whole game.  🤷‍♀️

 

[GG1]

25 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

 

Fair enough!  It's a fun discussion!

 

I just think the risk far outweighs the benefits.  Like I said earlier, if any of our key players get injured on Sunday, that's far worse than anything.  No team scares me in the playoffs.  Going on the road to Pitt is not a big deal, IMO.  I honestly don't even think that happens.  I think Pitt could and would lose to Baltimore in the WC round.

 

 

 

I'm sure there will be plenty of scoreboard watching, and now that Tomlin signaled that Rudolph will get the start, he's essentially handing the game to the Browns.  In that case, the decision for the Bills would be in sitting everyone at the half is to face Dolphins or Colts.

[Dubs]

16 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

I'm sure there will be plenty of scoreboard watching, and now that Tomlin signaled that Rudolph will get the start, he's essentially handing the game to the Browns.  In that case, the decision for the Bills would be in sitting everyone at the half is to face Dolphins or Colts.

browns or colts I think. 

 

If the Browns win, as you are saying above and if the Colts and Ravens both win (both heavy favorites) then I can't see a way the Bills play the Dolphins.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Dubs part Dub

[KD in CA]

10 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

Here's my thinking on this:

 

First, I can't see the Browns losing on Sunday (I mean, it is the Browns, but they are going to be pissed and I think the Steelers kind of stink and are going to take the opportunity to rest, so I put the Browns as a heavy favorite on Sunday).  So assuming they win, that means the Bills would get the 2.

 

Second, let's look at the rest of the AFC games:

 

The rest of the contenders for the AFC wildcard games have matchups that heavily favor each of them.  The Ravens should beat the Bengals, the Colts should beat the Jaguars and the Titans should beat the Texans.

 

That leaves the Bills game.  If the above happens, which I believe is likely, then the Bills game means very little to them.  They will be the 2 seed regardless.  If they win, they would knock out the Dolphins and play the Colts instead of the Browns.  If they lose, the Dolphins would be the 5 seed and the Colts would be out.

 

So the question boils down to this:  Is playing the Colts worth putting your key players at risk of injury?  I say no.  Sit your players, rest, and get two weeks to prep for the Browns.

 

Just my $0.02.

 

 

 

I feel like Pittsburgh-Cleveland games are like Yankees-Red Sox games of yore....no matter the situation you just always know who's going to win.  I know everyone is down on Pittsburgh, but Cleveland just isn't that impressive to me.  They've been squeaking by bad teams all year and Mayfield 

 

Bottom line is, the Bills should be happy to play Colts, Browns or Miami in the first round.  They should be able to beat any of those teams without a problem.

[Ann]

 

 

 

[Just Joshin]

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

 

Of course they need to avoid significant injury, and hopefully they can empty the bench by 4Q, but I can think of two reasons to start everyone who is healthy:

-home field for round 2;  obviously not nearly as important without fans, but is still a benefit

-keeping a team that is on a roll, on a roll

 

.....and no travel until championship game means less covid risk.

[Ann]

What a difference three years, and an elite quarterback, make...
 

 

[B-Man]

 

It would still be nice if the Bengals ruined the Ravens in week #17 again..............😆

[Ann]

 

 

 

[Koko]

11 hours ago, Dubs part Dub said:

 

I really cannot see why the Bills would play most of their starters on Sunday.  Losing to the Dolphins does virtually nothing to hurt their chances in the playoffs.  However, seeing any significant player get injured is devastating to their chances in the playoffs.  In addition, getting what is essentially a bye week to let players with bumps and bruises rest is a nice bonus. I also think getting some players that don't typically get game work some action has some ancillary benefits in case someone does go down in the playoffs.

 

If I am McD, I am sitting, at a minimum:  Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, Morse, Beasley, Brown, Feliciano, Williams on offense.  On defense I am sitting: Hughes, Oliver, Edmunds, Milano, White, Power, Hyde.  I am also giving Roberts the week off.

 

 

 

 

 

Coaching scared gets you out of the NFL faster than just about anything.

 

However, winning guarantees you the #2 seed, which, as you know, gets you at least two playoff home games (assuming the Bills don't shit the bed in the WC round), if not 3 (were someone to upset the Chiefs.) Not having to travel is a good thing.

 

Worrying about injuries is a waste of time. For example, here's a professional wrestler who tore up his shoulder just taking out the garbage: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/report-wwes-randy-orton-dislocated-shoulder-taking-out-the-trash

 

Taking out the garbage. Not working out. Not doing his job performing in the ring. Taking out the garbage.

 

We all remember the rubber mat incident, right?

[Boyst]

My thoughts that must be shared:

1) winning is important. Accepting defeat is a bad habit.

 

2) I get goosebumps thinking about this team and I do that at least several times daily when people talk to me about the Bills. People are getting on the Bills to go far

 

3) the Bengals upsetting the Ravens would be great!  Quietly and surprisingly to some Jackson has shifted to a pocket passing QB.

 

4) I don't want to play the Browns. They're warming up and they have talent that matches against our weaknesses.

[Dubs]

9 hours ago, Koko said:

 

Coaching scared gets you out of the NFL faster than just about anything.

 

However, winning guarantees you the #2 seed, which, as you know, gets you at least two playoff home games (assuming the Bills don't shit the bed in the WC round), if not 3 (were someone to upset the Chiefs.) Not having to travel is a good thing.

 

Worrying about injuries is a waste of time. For example, here's a professional wrestler who tore up his shoulder just taking out the garbage: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/report-wwes-randy-orton-dislocated-shoulder-taking-out-the-trash

 

Taking out the garbage. Not working out. Not doing his job performing in the ring. Taking out the garbage.

 

We all remember the rubber mat incident, right?

 

Hmmm...

 

I don't think sitting your most important players in a meaningless game is "coaching scared".  It's been going on for a long time and its a luxury afforded to team who have gone through the previous 15 games with enough success that the 16th game doesn't matter.

 

I agree that getting the 2 is a benefit over the 3, but the question is, how much?  

 

As far as worrying about injuries goes, I think that's the wrong way to look at it.  You are not sitting there, "worrying" about injuries.  You are making a decision based on calculated risk assessment.  Yes, anything can happen and you can slip and die in your shower or something.  But as far as injuries go, any play has a far greater chance of getting injured playing in a football game than taking out the trash or walking around.  I would venture a guess that 99.9% of the injuries putting NFL players on IR are from injuries sustained while playing football, not household chores.

 

 

[Ann]

37 minutes ago, Boyst said:

My thoughts that must be shared:

1) winning is important. Accepting defeat is a bad habit.

 

2) I get goosebumps thinking about this team and I do that at least several times daily when people talk to me about the Bills. People are getting on the Bills to go far

 

3) the Bengals upsetting the Ravens would be great!  Quietly and surprisingly to some Jackson has shifted to a pocket passing QB.

 

4) I don't want to play the Browns. They're warming up and they have talent that matches against our weaknesses.

He has!? I must have missed those games.

I will say if he is trending that way, and it works, good for him! He's not going to last if he keeps running instead of passing.

 

[Alaska Darin]

10 minutes ago, Ann said:

He has!? I must have missed those games.

Me too.  They've played 3 pretty bad teams (Dallas, Jax, NYG) in the last 4 games and the one decent team (Cleveland), he threw the ball 17 times, completing 11 for 163 yards.  He ran for 124.

 

His passing yardage was:

107 vs Dallas

243 vs Jax
183 vs NYG

 

Those are some Tyrod Taylor numbers.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Alaska Darin

[Boyst]

6 minutes ago, Ann said:

He has!? I must have missed those games.

I will say if he is trending that way, and it works, good for him! He's not going to last if he keeps running instead of passing.

 

I've not watched every game and I've not watched more than a series or two at a time but when I have I have seen him stay in the pocket, move in the pocket and look downfield for targets more than last year. 

 

I don't think he will sustain it and regress to his means once he faces pressure through coverage and/or rushers. 

 

I think the Bills will be just fine bringing 4 with 1 LB watching the backfield and looking to get 6 guys in cover 3 zone, specifically if Edmunds can eliminate the middle of the field and keep Jackson behind the LOS on broken pass plays when he will step up in to the pocket and may notice a lane.

 

To get more football 202:

Playing the Ravens will be like playing the Chiefs or Steelers. We kept our OLB free to read the backfield, Poyer reading the QB, and Hyde or the nickel playing the TE.  We did this against Miami, as well where Guysekki (&#%$ his name, &#%$ miami) was kept in check adequately and he is a much better TE than all but Kelce. We still did well against Kelce. Against the Ravens we will play a conservative defense to read the play as it unfolds and react with our playmakers. We hustle to the ball even without generating strong pressure up the middle on passes or maintaining Gap integrity on the run. So back to Hyde it will be about him keying off the TE, which doesn't mean he covers the TE necessarily but he makes his moves depending on where and what the TE does vs the WR. Jackson has a strong arm but doesn throw outside of the hashs enough to worry me. Giving those up when they'll rarely happen, Hyde on the deep 3rd, poyer keying off the QB, with Edmunds reading the play and getting lost in it half the time when Milano is able to get to the ball will be how we beat their offense. 

 

Levi Wallace and our CB's won't have that big of handle, Brown is quick but so are they and we play with discipline

[Koko]

4 hours ago, Dubs part Dub said:

 

Hmmm...

 

I don't think sitting your most important players in a meaningless game is "coaching scared".  It's been going on for a long time and its a luxury afforded to team who have gone through the previous 15 games with enough success that the 16th game doesn't matter.

 

I agree that getting the 2 is a benefit over the 3, but the question is, how much?  

 

As far as worrying about injuries goes, I think that's the wrong way to look at it.  You are not sitting there, "worrying" about injuries.  You are making a decision based on calculated risk assessment.  Yes, anything can happen and you can slip and die in your shower or something.  But as far as injuries go, any play has a far greater chance of getting injured playing in a football game than taking out the trash or walking around.  I would venture a guess that 99.9% of the injuries putting NFL players on IR are from injuries sustained while playing football, not household chores.

 

 

 

1.) It's not a meaningless game.

 

2.) Resting starters is fine, not playing them solely because you're afraid of injuries is coaching scared.