Expected Points Added

[Alaska Darin]

Requires a Subscription to The Athletic (if you don't have one, it might be the only sports' site worth paying money to - I love it):

 

https://theathletic.com/2304252/2021/01/06/*Patriots-defense-decline/

 

BILLS Offense:

 

The 2019 Bills had 10 games when their offense finished with negative EPA. That included five games of minus-10 EPA or worse — disaster games that NFL teams won just 13 percent of the time over the past two seasons. This season, Buffalo joined Kansas City, New Orleans and Tennessee as the only teams to suffer zero such offensive meltdown games. Allen’s development and Stefon Diggs’ addition were primary contributors.

 

BILLS Defense:

 

The Bills might have gone undefeated this season if they could have had their 2019 defense playing for them. That defense ranked fourth in EPA. The 2020 version ranked 25th through Week 13 before rallying for a No. 17 finish. The Titans, Chiefs, Rams and even the Dolphins (in Week 6) rolled up impressive offensive numbers against Buffalo this season.

[Ann]

50 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

Requires a Subscription to The Athletic (if you don't have one, it might be the only sports' site worth paying money to - I love it):

 

Agreed!

 

[Alaska Darin]

Oh, and if anyone is interested in a free guest pass for The Athletic (30 days worth), I have 5 of them.  Just PM me.

[Just Joshin]

I get the metric but always feel this is based on someone's perception of what should happen and then they grade against that perception.  It is like me grading the Bills draft based on what I thought they should have done - it will bias towards my perception.

 

But it is one data point to show improvement year over year.