Jump to content
Bills Fans Gear Now Available! ×
LeviF91
LeviF91

Billsfans Bets: NFL Wild Card Picks

   (1 review)

Image Credit: © Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

 

It went right down to the 2020 NFL season’s final minute, but after 256 regular-season games, we have a playoff picture set in stone.

 

Betting the playoffs isn’t easy, but it also isn’t as difficult as some would have you believe.

 

Many gamblers tend to overthink playoff matchups and spreads. Big spreads are generally looked at with suspicion; after all, how much difference can there be between playoff teams in today’s NFL? Plus, with notable stories about wildcard teams getting hot at the right time and making a run (2007 Giants, 2019 Titans), isn’t it better to assume that a team that earned the right to play extra games can always keep it close against a squad that is, on paper, the superior team?

 

In short, no. Especially not this year.

 

The 2020 NFL postseason features, for the first time, a third wildcard team in each conference. This eliminates the bye week for the second seed in each bracket as they match up against a seventh seed in the wildcard round.

 

The 2020 NFL postseason also features, for only the fifth time in history, a team with a losing record in the NFC East champion (as much as that means) Washington Football Team.

 

With that in mind, we’re going to make our New Year’s betting resolution “don’t overthink it.” Don’t overthink big spreads, don’t overthink bad matchups. Fire at will.

 

IND (+6) at BUF

 

As a Bills fan, I often hesitate to tell people when I bet the Bills. This week I feel like I have to say something as there are many people who see value in the Colts at anything more than a field goal. I’m not one of those people. Trot out DVOA stats all you want, but the eye test is more than enough. The Colts are trending down while Buffalo is playing their best football right now. If the Bills get out to a fast start, which they’re more than capable of, it’s going to turn into another Philip Rivers playoff flop, and Indianapolis will get boat raced. At any spread under 7, the value is on the favorite in this matchup.

 

The pick: BUF

 

Tampa Bay (-8) at WAS

 

If it weren’t for the Saints, Tampa Bay would be sitting at home watching this weekend’s games and waiting to see who they play after their first-round bye. While boasting one of the best defensive lines in the league, the above-mentioned Washington is just a bad team. Between Alex Smith’s health and the Bucs’ tendency to manhandle losing teams this year, the minus-8 figure is a trap. Don’t get caught in it. Trust a good team to take care of business against a team with no business being in the playoffs.

 

The pick: Tampa Bay

 

CLE (+6) at PIT

 

Yes, the same Cleveland team you saw nearly blow their playoff chances against a Steelers squad quarterbacked by Mason Rudolph is only getting six points in the final matchup of wildcard weekend. To be completely honest, this Cleveland team is worse than the one you saw last week, with the head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin Stefanski out with COVID along with pro bowl OL Joel Bitonio. The Browns also lost DE Olivier Vernon, who had nine sacks lining up opposite of Myles Garrett this season, to an Achilles injury this past Sunday. Frankly, Pittsburgh isn’t favored by enough.

 

The pick: PIT

 

 

Billsfans Bets: NFL Week 17 Picks

 

BillsFans.com - LeviF91

User Feedback

Guest

Ann

  

Thank you for the easy to understand write-up, @LeviF91!

Share this review


Link to review

  • A Few Thoughts from the Commanders Game.....in no particular order

    © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports   Took the opportunity to go to the Commanders game yesterday, but with that comes limited observations from the seats.  While I would love to give thoughts in the normal fashion, I honestly just didn't have the same vantage point as usual.  With that, expect some questions as I still haven't been able to see a good replay of the game.   1 - Commanders Fans - I've been to quite a few away games and I can honestly say that this felt more like a h

    A Few Thoughts...

    A Few Thoughts about the Raiders Game, in no particular order

    © Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK   Growing up as a kid, you remember those moments where your parents saying they were disappointed in you was sometimes worse than any real punishment.  Until I had a kid of my own, I always wondered if that was an intention form of mind game that parents did when they realized standard punishment wasn't getting the job done.  As my daughter gets older, and her actions and behaviors become more intentional, I see more and more what she's capable of,

    A Few Thoughts...

    Where is the data to suggest that things will change?

    The first week of the season was interesting, to say the least.  There were some scores and performances that were truly head scratchers.  While I could use the term "any given Sunday" for a lot of those games, the Bills game just feels different.  This didn't feel like a fluke game for Josh, the players, and the coaches.  No, this felt like the game right after the Bengals loss.  For me, that's why this game hurts so much.  I don't care that it was against the Jets or on MNF, I care that there

    A Few Thoughts...

    Buffalo Bills 2022-23 Season Review

    © Tina MacIntyre-Yee / USA TODAY NETWORK   I know we're not ready to process the fact that the Buffalo Bills' season is over, as many of us are still trying to come to grips with our emotions following the latest disappointment. Many are frustrated, bitter, confused, and possibly just fed up with their favorite football team after falling short of expectations yet again.   It's understandable to have mixed feelings about how to feel about this team's effort. Should we point f

    2022 Buffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Divisional Round preview

    © Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports   Here we get a rematch of the Week 17 matchup that never happened. What was previously viewed as a potential playoff matchup has actually come to fruition. Both the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals should have had no issue whomping their Wild Card opponents, as each foe was forced to start their backup quarterback (third-string for Miami).   Yet, each potential Super Bowl contender wound up struggling to knock off their rival. As we know a

    2022 Buffalo Bills
  • Our picks

    • 38-10 Bills
        • FANtastic
        • Applause
        • Like
    • Billsfans Bets: Super Bowl LVII Preview and Pick
      Super Bowl LVII has been set with the Kansas City Chiefs squaring off against the Philadelphia Eagles. 
       
      The game will take place on Sunday, February 12th at 6:30 PM EST. at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. LVII will be the 57th edition of sport's most prestigious event. 
       
      Kansas City will be making its fifth appearance in the Super Bowl. With a 2-2 record, they will look to get that record past .500 and continue penciling their name in the history books. 
       
      Philadelphia will return to the big game for the fourth time in franchise history. Five years ago, they were able to slay the dragon in the New England Patriots, winning 41-33 for their first Super Bowl in franchise history. 
       
      This is not a matchup rooted in history, as the teams have only played nine times since 1972. Kansas City leads the all-time series 5-4, but the result of the next matchup is all anyone will remember. ...
      • 0 replies
    • Post in Who Are the Bills Mafia?
      Apparently the Food Network was out at Highmark for the Green Bay game.
       
        • Cheers
    • Buffalo Bills 2022-23 Season Review
      I know we're not ready to process the fact that the Buffalo Bills' season is over, as many of us are still trying to come to grips with our emotions following the latest disappointment. Many are frustrated, bitter, confused, and possibly just fed up with their favorite football team after falling short of expectations yet again.
       
      It's understandable to have mixed feelings about how to feel about this team's effort. Should we point fingers, criticize opponents or refs, or even question coaching decisions after such a bad loss?
       
      The truth is, there are many reasons to be upset with how the Bills finished their season, in a 27-10 loss in the Divisional Round. Not to take anything away from the Cincinnati Bengals, as they proved yet again that they're an elite team, reaching the AFC Conference Championship two years in a row. But a 17-point loss just wasn't what anyone was anticipating, not for this Rumbling Herd. 
       
      Especially considering Buffalo's worst loss all season came by just three points. We can't help but wonder how differently the outcome could have been had Buffalo had a chance to play their originally-scheduled Week 17 matchup against Cincinnati, giving the team a good feel for what to expect come playoff time, but that's simply another excuse. Cincinnati dealt with similar conditions. 
       
      We could go on and on about a tough ending to another rollercoaster season, but that would be doing an injustice to all the bright spots we got to experience throughout the year. Instead, let's look back at the season that was. One that saw the Bills have their second 13-win season in four years. ...
      • 5 replies
    • Billsfans Bets: NFL Conference Championships Picks
      Then there were four. 
       
      The NFL's divisional round wrapped up this weekend to set up the leagues' AFC and NFC Championship games. 
       
      We started in Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs took on Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite a scary ankle injury to star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs were able to hold on 27-20. Mahomes would leave the game in the first quarter but re-enter to start the second half. It is believed to be a high ankle sprain, and more updates will come throughout the week.
       
      Saturday's second game saw the Philadelphia Eagles completely torch the New York Giants at Lincoln Financial Field by a score of 38-7.
       
      On a snowy afternoon in Buffalo, Joe Cool came out on top. Using back-to-back touchdown drives to start the game, Cincinnati took an early lead they would never give back. The Bills cut the score 17-10 with a field goal with 7:12 left in the third quarter. With Bills fans clamoring for a defensive stop, Burrow led the Bengals on a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive lasting 6:25, taking a 24-10 lead in the fourth. A final score of 27-10 ended the Bills' season, and the franchise will have another offseason of evaluating what went wrong in the postseason. 
       
      The weekend concluded with a defensive showdown in San Francisco. Limiting Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to 206 passing yards, the 49ers' defense looked every bit Super Bowl-ready. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy was able to do enough, and do-it-all Christian McCaffrey found the end zone for the eighth straight week. The 49ers won 19-12. 
       
      It should be a great Championship weekend as the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Arrowhead to play the Chiefs. The 49ers have set up a date with the Eagles and will leave their nice weather for a game in Philadelphia.  ...
      • 0 replies
  • A Bills Fan shows his support for Damar while playing a game of cornhole at a tailgate party

    Jan 8, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; A Buffalo Bills fan plays a cornhole game wearing an improvised Damar Hamlin jersey (3) before a game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium.

    2022 Buffalo Bills

    Josh tries to get away from Dolphins LB Duke Riley in the NFL Wild Card game

    Jan 15, 2023; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) tries to get away from Miami Dolphins linebacker Duke Riley (45) in the first quarter in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium.

    2022 Buffalo Bills

    Josh shows the ball after being tackled during the game at Highmark Stadium

    Jan 22, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) holds up the ball to show possession after running with the ball for several yards during second half action. Bengals Logan Wilson (55) and Mike Hilton (21) closed in on Allen before he slid during an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium.

    2022 Buffalo Bills

    Tremaine signs autographs before the NFL Wild Card game at Highmark Stadium against the Dolphins

    Jan 15, 2023; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds signs autographs before playing against the Miami Dolphins in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium.

    2022 Buffalo Bills

    Dawson celebrates his TD catch with Josh against the Patriots

    Bills tight end Dawson Knox celebrates his touchdown catch with quarterback Josh Allen.

    2022 Buffalo Bills


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue., Guidelines