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Billsfans Bets: NFL Week 10 Picks

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© Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK


Week 9 saw many teams' playoff hopes fade into the distance, particularly in the NFC. Arizona, Chicago, Green Bay, and New Orleans all sit at 3-6 after humbling defeats. In the AFC, Week 10 offers a rest via the bye to the Bengals, Jets, Ravens, and Patriots, each with a winning record and holding onto their playoff aspirations. We are left with 14 remaining matchups; the best of Sunday's slate is previewed below.


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© Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills

Betting Lines: 

Spread: Vikings +7.5, Bills -7.5,

Total: Over/Under 48.5

Money line: Vikings +275, Bills -350,


The game of the weekend comes from Highmark Stadium, New York, where the Vikings take on the Bills.


Minnesota relied on a game-winning field goal to defeat the Washington Commanders on Sunday after trailing by 10 points early in the 4th quarter. The Vikings have been dominant in their last six outings, with Justin Jefferson a key contributor, averaging over 100 yards per game. However, he has been unable to find the end zone regularly. Teammate Dalvin Cook, by comparison, has been a regular visitor to the end zone during the same period, with a score a game. However, the Vikings will need both players to be in sparkling form if they are to take anything back to the Twin Cities with them.


The Bill's defense, who have allowed just 15 points per game this season, will aim to stop them. They've been particularly adept at stopping the rush, limiting the Chiefs, Steelers, and Dolphins to less than 150 yards combined. The only player to put the Buffalo rush defense to the sword this season was Aaron Jones (Packers) with 143 yards.


The Bill's offense has slowed since the bye week, with Josh Allen scraping up 200 yards against the Jets on Sunday. The slowdown has coincided with an ever-increasing reliance on Steffens Diggs as other receiving options decline. Josh Allen accounted for almost 100 of the 134 rushing yards in Sunday's loss, scoring two touchdowns. He damaged the ACL of his right elbow on the game's last play and is currently questionable for this week. Case Keenum and Steffon Diggs will face their former team together almost five years after the Minneapolis Miracle if he fails to recover in time.


It's notable that, as good as their defense is, Buffalo has only won where they scored 21 points or more. Can Minnesota prevent the Bills from scoring three touchdowns? Unfortunately, it's not looking likely; despite their 7-1 record, the Vikings are giving up 380+ yards per game and look particularly vulnerable to the passing game. Ultimately, this should be the deciding factor in an exciting game; take the Bills to cover the spread even if Keenum starts ahead of Josh Allen.



© Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Betting Lines:

Spread: Cowboys -4.5, Packers +4.5

Total: Over/Under 43.5

Money line: Cowboys -222, Packers +180


The footballing rivalry between Dallas and Green Bay is the stuff of legend. Across their 37 matches, including eight playoff games, there have been bruising encounters for both sides.


Green Bay has won their past three matchups against Dallas, but they come into this game in a sorry state. Their lowest moment of the season came on Sunday with a 15-9 loss to the 2-6 Lions, extending their losing streak to 5 games. Aaron Rodgers is enduring his worst season since his 2008 rookie year, picked off three times, including 2 in the red zone. Offensively this team is insipid, limping to an average of 17 points per game. Additionally, the Packers receiving core came into the 2022 season looking threadbare; Lazard still has less than 150 career receptions, rookie Doubs has flashed in patches, while Christian Watson and veteran Sammy Watkins have been largely irrelevant.


Defensively, the Packers have held up well against aerial threats this season, giving up just 170 passing yards on average, with Rashan Gary and Preston Smith generating significant pressure on their opponents. However, the Lion's defeat saw Gary suffer a season-ending injury (knee) and cornerback Eric Stokes potentially. With run defense already an issue, the remainder of the 2022 schedule does not look kind.


Dallas will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing a wounded Green Bay. Dak Prescott is seeking his first win over Green Bay since his 2016 rookie season. But, like Rodgers, his receiving options are limited this season. The ever-present Ceedee Lamb is racking up an average of 70 yards per game, yet the depth has been less consistent, with Noah Brown, Dalton Shultz, and Michael Gallup experiencing injuries.


The ground game is key for Dallas, and while Zeke is the star attraction, Tony Pollard has exceeded him in terms of yards gained. Both players have important contract negotiations in the off-season, and the smart money sees Pollard remaining on the roster next year. Expect multiple scores from the Cowboys here as they beat the spread and the Over to record a memorable victory.



© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

Betting Lines:

Spread: Broncos +1.5, Titans -1.5

Total: Over/Under 49.5

Money line: Broncos +110, Titans -130


After the bye week, Denver returns to NFL action and faces a trip to Nashville to take on the Titans. It's been a season of inconsistency for the Broncos, with early season hopes of having Russell Wilson under center giving way to frustration. Many fans will have been frustrated to see Bradley Chubb move to AFC playoff contender Miami at a crucial point in the season. With games to come against the Raiders and Carolina in weeks 11 and 12, a victory here would set Denver on track for a positive record.


What chance does Denver have here? The answer lies in several key areas. Firstly, the defense must hold up without one of its key pieces in Chubb. In this current season, Denver has excelled in pass defense, a crucial factor in their 3-5 record, while averaging only 15 points per game on offense. Secondly, on Offense, Denver's recent games have seen season highs for Dulcich and Jeudy in terms of receptions and yardage; they must win their matchups on Sunday if the Broncos are to take anything from the game.


Sunday's host Tennessee is coming off a narrow defeat to Kansas City with Malik Willis under center. Passing options were incredibly limited in that game, with just 16 attempts and only the tight ends having any impact. The Titans have achieved less than 100 receiving yards over the past two games, down from an average of 165 yards with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Tannehill traveled to Kansas on Sunday and practiced with the team but was not deemed healthy enough to take the field.


The Titan's defense was on the field for 41 minutes on Sunday and has proved itself particularly adept in dealing with opposition rush attempts this season. Something which should hold them in good stead against Bronco's game built around Latavius Murray, Melvin Gordon, and potentially Chase Edmonds. One player to watch out for on the Titan's defense is Denico Autry, who managed to increase his sack count for the season to 7 against Kansas. The Broncos are giving up 3 or 4 sacks per game, and Autry will likely add to his total here.


A lot depends here on which quarterback starts for Tennessee. Tennessee is giving up three sacks per game which will likely force the Titans to play Willis unless Tannehill's body can withstand significant impact. Either way, back the Under, and if you can get good odds on 6 or 7 sacks in the game, that's worth noting too.



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