Let's calm our tits - 2024 edition

[SquirminThurman]

I'm not thrilled by how the 2024 Round 1 went for the Bills. I did try to keep telling folks that the Bills did not have the ammo to move up in the first round of this draft. That was proven true. Beane did not want a gap between round 1 and 4, and did not want to discount next year's 2nd round pick from the Diggs trade. I'm happy he didn't.

 

I also noted the drafts 'fall funny' for Beane and this was largely true. I think BTJr to Jax threw things off first. Another poster said this would happen. The Bills under Beane seem to suck at contingency plans during the draft.

 

No one thought the Bills would trade down, much less twice, back to the 2nd tonight.

 

I think the Bills are using new analytics in the draft. Less emphasis on rounds, and more emphasis on total draft slots. It makes sense given the past 2-3 drafts. If a guy at their pick does not meet their value, they trade down. The Jerry Jones table of draft values is 30-40 years old, and was based on rounds. If we took away the 'brackets' surrounding rounds, and just look at the whole draft by slots, the Bills cleaned up.

 

The Bills gained 119 total draft slots in the trades and lost 0 picks. They lost 5 slots on the top end (28 to 33), but reduced the low end bust slots from 248 to 221 (+27).

 

Going into the draft:

(Bolded to KC)

RD1: 28

RD 2: 60

RD 4: 128

RD 4: 133

RD 5: 144 (FROM BEARS)

RD 5: 160 (FROM PACKERS)

RD 5: 163

RD 6: 200

RD 6: 204

RD 7: 248

 

Hi-Low Spread: 220

AVG Pick: 146.8

 

After 1st trade with KC:

RD 1:32 (-4) (FROM KC)

RD 2: 60

RD3: 95 (+38) (FROM KC)

RD 4: 128

RD 5: 144 (FROM BEARS)

RD 5: 160 (FROM PACKERS)

RD 5: 163

RD 6: 200

RD 6: 204

RD 7: 221 (+27) (FROM KC)

 

Hi-Low Spread: 189 (+39)

AVG Pick: 140.7 (+6.1)

Net Slot Gain: +61

Got back into the 3rd round

Lost a 4th round pick

 

So KC really wanted Xavier Worthy and thought the Bills, or Ravens might take him. Worthy may be good but does not fit the Bills offense. KC was willing to move up 4 slots (32 to 28) and give up 65 slots in exchange. They took our junk (#248) for less junk (#221), a 27 slot loss. They also let us get back into the 3rd round (+38 slots) for a mid 4th. The last pick in the 3rd round may not sound good until you think of its trade value. The Bills can easily have 2 top 20 picks in the 2nd now, or move right up to the first pick of the third round by pairing #95 with a plentiful 5th round pick for a guy who fell out of the 2nd round.

 

After Trade with Carolina:

RD 2: 33 (-1) (FROM CAROLINA)

RD 2: 60

RD3: 95 (FROM KC)

RD 4: 128

RD 5: 141 (+59) (FROM CAROLINA)

RD 5: 144 (FROM BEARS)

RD 5: 160 (FROM PACKERS)

RD 5: 163

RD 6: 204

RD 7: 221 (FROM KC)

 

Hi-Low Spread: 188

AVG Pick: 134.9

Net Slot Gain: +58

Lost a 1st (#32)

Lost a 6th (#204)

Gained 2nd (#33)

Gained a 5th (#141)

 

So same thing here. Carolina though Xavier Legette was the WR#1 their young QB needed. I like Legette a lot, but in the 2nd round, or around pick 45-60. #32 was a bit of a reach to me. Not sure if the Bills knew X Legette would be the pick. They moved back 1 total slot to gain 59 slots later!!! That is high robery. The Panthers were thinking the Bills were going WR and wanted to jump the team they were trading with. It cost them 59 total draft slots to move ahead 1 slot. It also shows that a lot of teams are still thinking rounds instead of draft slots. The Bills lost out on Xavier Legette, which does suck, but gained 59 drsft slots.

 

So the trade back with KC meant Xavier Worthy and Ricky Pearsall was lost (drafted #31 by SF). Most Bills fans weren't looking to Worthy to be the WR#1 we wanted, and saw Pearsall as a day #2 posession WR. The trade back with Carolina meant losing out on Xavier Legette, that does stink.

 

Still Ladd McConkey, AD Mitchell, Troy Franklin and Roman Wilson are out there from the top of the WR class, and the Bills have the 1st pick tomorrow. more trades back is simply plsying with fire IMO.

 

The Bills can think over the following tonight:

• Ladd McConkey. He is a budget WR#1, a solid WR#2 and a stud slot. He will be productive as a pro, and is the safe bet with a potentially limited top end.
• AD Mitchell. Has the size and speed teams dream of. Amazing catches in big time. Dogs it on other routes and admitted he does not always run at full speed. Could be the 2nd or 3rd best WR in the class if he hits. Biggest Boom Bust of the class.
• Troy Franklin. I will LOL if he gets picked. I called Troy Franklin in the 2nd a month or two back! That was before they dealt Diggs. I thought he could be a Davis type replacement. I don't want him competing as this team's #1 though.
• Roman Wilson - the outlier do it all WR

 

Edited April 26 by SquirminThurman

[Mahoney]

6 hours ago, SquirminThurman said:

They moved back 1 total slot to gain 59 slots later!!! That is high robery. The Panthers were thinking the Bills were going WR and wanted to jump the team they were trading with. It cost them 59 total draft slots to move ahead 1 slot. It also shows that a lot of teams are still thinking rounds instead of draft slots. The Bills lost out on Xavier Legette, which does suck, but gained 59 drsft slots.

Well done. The only thing I'll add is that we traded out of a possible 5th-year option, which is likely why we got the 59 draft slots. That said, I don't hate the trades.

[Fansince88]

100% sure they were not picking in the 1st last week. Im fine.

[Nouseforaname]

My tits are extremely calm.

[Alaska Darin]

10 hours ago, SquirminThurman said:

No one thought the Bills would trade down, much less twice, back to the 2nd tonight.

I 100% thought the BILLS were trading down after Thomas went off the board but I've felt that way for quite awhile.  Depending on who you believe, this draft had between 20-25 first round graded players.  The one thing we know for sure about Beane is he sticks to his board and at least SOME of the first round grades we had on players were positions the BILLS don't really need (OT, QB, TE, etc.).  It makes perfect sense the BILLS traded back, regardless of who the dance partner(s) ended up being.

 

People get far too wrapped around where guys are drafted.  I remember when the Cowboys got all that draft capital from the Hershel Walker trade.  They missed on a ton of those picks but because they had so many...they still built a power house team. 

 

As always, we'll see the REAL results of this draft 3 years from now.  I'd bet good money that Worthy isn't anything close to the chirping that's going on around him now.  There haven't been too many 160 pound WRs that have had long term success in the NFL.

[snafu]

4 hours ago, Mahoney said:

Well done. The only thing I'll add is that we traded out of a possible 5th-year option, which is likely why we got the 59 draft slots. That said, I don't hate the trades.

 

Yeah this is my only knock on the second trade -- and I bet it is more valuable when you've taken a QB.

And I suppose a team should know what they've got after 3 seasons.  So, all in all, it isn't such a big deal.

 

 

[Alaska Darin]

4 hours ago, Mahoney said:

Well done. The only thing I'll add is that we traded out of a possible 5th-year option, which is likely why we got the 59 draft slots. That said, I don't hate the trades.

If the worst thing that happens is the guy we pick first today (regardless of where the pick is) is we have to pay him a year earlier, we'll all live with it just fine.

[Nanker]

Carolina probably couldn’t have traded up to #28.  Beane wasn’t taking Worthy in any case. So dropping back twice put more bullets in his magazine. 
 

Cool, calm, collected. That’s our GM. 

[Hedge]

11 hours ago, SquirminThurman said:

I'm not thrilled by how the 2024 Round 1 went for the Bills. I did try to keep telling folks that the Bills did not have the ammo to move up in the first round of this draft. That was proven true. Beane did not want a gap between round 1 and 4, and did not want to discount next year's 2nd round pick from the Diggs trade. I'm happy he didn't.

 

I also noted the drafts 'fall funny' for Beane and this was largely true. I think BTJr to Jax threw things off first. Another poster said this would happen. The Bills under Beane seem to suck at contingency plans during the draft.

 

No one thought the Bills would trade down, much less twice, back to the 2nd tonight.

 

I think the Bills are using new analytics in the draft. Less emphasis on rounds, and more emphasis on total draft slots. It makes sense given the past 2-3 drafts. If a guy at their pick does not meet their value, they trade down. The Jerry Jones table of draft values is 30-40 years old, and was based on rounds. If we took away the 'brackets' surrounding rounds, and just look at the whole draft by slots, the Bills cleaned up.

 

The Bills gained 119 total draft slots in the trades and lost 0 picks. They lost 5 slots on the top end (28 to 33), but reduced the low end bust slots from 248 to 221 (+27).

 

Going into the draft:

(Bolded to KC)

RD1: 28

RD 2: 60

RD 4: 128

RD 4: 133

RD 5: 144 (FROM BEARS)

RD 5: 160 (FROM PACKERS)

RD 5: 163

RD 6: 200

RD 6: 204

RD 7: 248

 

Hi-Low Spread: 220

AVG Pick: 146.8

 

After 1st trade with KC:

RD 1:32 (-4) (FROM KC)

RD 2: 60

RD3: 95 (+38) (FROM KC)

RD 4: 128

RD 5: 144 (FROM BEARS)

RD 5: 160 (FROM PACKERS)

RD 5: 163

RD 6: 200

RD 6: 204

RD 7: 221 (+27) (FROM KC)

 

Hi-Low Spread: 189 (+39)

AVG Pick: 140.7 (+6.1)

Net Slot Gain: +61

Got back into the 3rd round

Lost a 4th round pick

 

So KC really wanted Xavier Worthy and thought the Bills, or Ravens might take him. Worthy may be good but does not fit the Bills offense. KC was willing to move up 4 slots (32 to 28) and give up 65 slots in exchange. They took our junk (#248) for less junk (#221), a 27 slot loss. They also let us get back into the 3rd round (+38 slots) for a mid 4th. The last pick in the 3rd round may not sound good until you think of its trade value. The Bills can easily have 2 top 20 picks in the 2nd now, or move right up to the first pick of the third round by pairing #95 with a plentiful 5th round pick for a guy who fell out of the 2nd round.

 

After Trade with Carolina:

RD 2: 33 (-1) (FROM CAROLINA)

RD 2: 60

RD3: 95 (FROM KC)

RD 4: 128

RD 5: 141 (+59) (FROM CAROLINA)

RD 5: 144 (FROM BEARS)

RD 5: 160 (FROM PACKERS)

RD 5: 163

RD 6: 204

RD 7: 221 (FROM KC)

 

Hi-Low Spread: 188

AVG Pick: 134.9

Net Slot Gain: +58

Lost a 1st (#32)

Lost a 6th (#204)

Gained 2nd (#33)

Gained a 5th (#141)

 

So same thing here. Carolina though Xavier Legette was the WR#1 their young QB needed. I like Legette a lot, but in the 2nd round, or around pick 45-60. #32 was a bit of a reach to me. Not sure if the Bills knew X Legette would be the pick. They moved back 1 total slot to gain 59 slots later!!! That is high robery. The Panthers were thinking the Bills were going WR and wanted to jump the team they were trading with. It cost them 59 total draft slots to move ahead 1 slot. It also shows that a lot of teams are still thinking rounds instead of draft slots. The Bills lost out on Xavier Legette, which does suck, but gained 59 drsft slots.

 

So the trade back with KC meant Xavier Worthy and Ricky Pearsall was lost (drafted #31 by SF). Most Bills fans weren't looking to Worthy to be the WR#1 we wanted, and saw Pearsall as a day #2 posession WR. The trade back with Carolina meant losing out on Xavier Legette, that does stink.

 

Still Ladd McConkey, AD Mitchell, Troy Franklin and Roman Wilson are out there from the top of the WR class, and the Bills have the 1st pick tomorrow. more trades back is simply plsying with fire IMO.

 

The Bills can think over the following tonight:

• Ladd McConkey. He is a budget WR#1, a solid WR#2 and a stud slot. He will be productive as a pro, and is the safe bet with a potentially limited top end.
• AD Mitchell. Has the size and speed teams dream of. Amazing catches in big time. Dogs it on other routes and admitted he does not always run at full speed. Could be the 2nd or 3rd best WR in the class if he hits. Biggest Boom Bust of the class.
• Troy Franklin. I will LOL if he gets picked. I called Troy Franklin in the 2nd a month or two back! That was before they dealt Diggs. I thought he could be a Davis type replacement. I don't want him competing as this team's #1 though.
• Roman Wilson - the outlier do it all WR

 

 

Your thread title made me chuckle. I award you with a year of free site membership here.

[MothersMilk]

51 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

If the worst thing that happens is the guy we pick first today (regardless of where the pick is) is we have to pay him a year earlier, we'll all live with it just fine.

The 5th year option isn't used very much other than qb so no worries there.

[Alaska Darin]

1 minute ago, MothersMilk said:

The 5th year option isn't used very much other than qb so no worries there.

Beane has exercised the 5th year option on all of his first round picks plus Tre White.

[Jabba The Hutt]

1 hour ago, Nouseforaname said:

My tits are extremely calm.

Wait til I get done with em...💩

[MothersMilk]

3 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

Beane has exercised the 5th year option on all of his first round picks plus Tre White.

Yeah, I'm not talking just about the Bills but the entire league in general. It's falling out of style for the most part, with the exceptions mostly being qb's.

[Jabba The Hutt]

7 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

Beane has exercised the 5th year option on all of his first round picks plus Tre White.

 

11 minutes ago, MothersMilk said:

The 5th year option isn't used very much other than qb so no worries there.

I mean the 5th year on McConkey or DeJean would be phenomenal, however when they are already All-Stars as rookies you're probably paying them the buku bucks before year 5 anyways. I'm hoping Beane works the magic and picks up BOTH

Edited April 26 by Jabba The Hutt

[Alaska Darin]

1 minute ago, MothersMilk said:

Yeah, I'm not talking just about the Bills but the entire league in general. It's falling out of style for the most part, with the exceptions mostly being qb's.

Fair enough.  I don't have any data to argue the point so I'll defer.

[Nouseforaname]

2 minutes ago, Jabba The Hutt said:

Wait til I get done with em...💩

 

Does this classify as "Me too"?

[Jabba The Hutt]

Just now, Nouseforaname said:

 

Does this classify as "Me too"?

No, I identify as a dairy farmer.

[SquirminThurman]

Wow did the Bills blow it. They gained 119 raft slots and then drafted the same.

 

What a garbage draft. C grade at best.

[Ann]

8 hours ago, SquirminThurman said:

Wow did the Bills blow it. They gained 119 raft slots and then drafted the same.

 

What a garbage draft. C grade at best.

You are not taking your own advice.

[Nanker]

5 hours ago, Ann said:

You are not taking your own advice.

He can’t stop. It’s an addiction.