Bye week rejuvenation

[GG1]

Some numbers to back what we're seeing with our eyes.

 

Since the bye week, the Bills:

 

Score 6.55 more points per game

Allow 7.8 less points per game

 

Gain 2.2 more 1st downs per game

Allow 2.95 less 1st downs per game

 

Gain 35.75 more yards per game

Allow 61.8 less yards per game (Defense would be ranked top 5 in last 4 weeks)

 

Gain 37.15 more rush yards per game

Allow 47.75 less rush yards per game (Would be much better if not for Denver's stealth 140 rush yards)

 

 

 

 

[Ann]

Maybe they should ask for an earlier bye next year? 👼


 

[Foxx]

good stuff @GG1.  do you know what TOP difference was?

[GG1]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

good stuff @GG1.  do you know what TOP difference was?

 

2.65 mins more post bye. 

[Foxx]

12 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

2.65 mins more post bye. 

5.3 difference then?

[GG1]

4 minutes ago, Foxx said:

5.3 difference then?

 

Are we back to dinosaur tail math?  They had 30.5 avg ToP pre-bye, and 33.2 avg ToP post-bye,

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, GG1 said:

 

Are we back to dinosaur tail math?  They had 30.5 avg ToP pre-bye, and 33.2 avg ToP post-bye,

lol. that means the opposing team also had it 2.65 less then.

[IDBillzFan]

Good stuff. Thanks, GG.

 

We're hear and see a lot about teams getting hot at the right time, but rarely has it ever been discussed about the Bills.

[Chandemonium]

1 hour ago, DC Tom said:

And teams the Bills played before the bye have a 52% winning percentage; after the bye, 47%.

 

Not an insignificant difference, but not enough of one to account for the Bills improvement, either.

 

 

That’s crazy considering we played the winless Jets twice before the bye, and the 11-1 Steelers after. I guess that just shows how tough the rest of the pre-bye schedule was, and/or how easy the rest of the post bye schedule has been. 

[GG1]

More fun with numbers.  

 

Remember the old 3rd quarter blues?

 

Pre-bye in 3Q Bills averaged 2.1 points- Allowed 6.3 points (TDs only in the statistics)

Post-bye in 3Q Bills averaged 10.5 points- Allowed 3.5 points (TDs only in the statistics)

 

I'll add that the Bills are excelling in the middle two quarters, while adding one extra TD per game.  They haven't needed Josh's heroics in 4Q in this 4 game run.

Edited December 21, 2020 by GG1

[KD in CA]

55 minutes ago, GG1 said:

They haven't needed Josh's heroics in 4Q in this 4 game run.

 

Seeing more Moss than Josh in the 4Q has been a very welcome development lately.

[devnull]

[Koko]

2 hours ago, devnull said:

 

Yeah, but can they block?

[IDBillzFan]

This is a reference over last year, but this looks like a good thread to drop it.

 

 

[Chandemonium]

Pre-bye average point differential per game +0.7

 

post-bye average point differential per game +15

[Boyst]

How has our 3rd down and 4th down conversion been?

[GG1]

21 minutes ago, Boyst said:

How has our 3rd down and 4th down conversion been?

 

According to this they now lead the league in 3rd down conversions, helped by 55% rate in the last 3 games.   Look at the difference with last year.

[Boyst]

4 hours ago, GG1 said:

 

According to this they now lead the league in 3rd down conversions, helped by 55% rate in the last 3 games.   Look at the difference with last year.

Is that where you were getting all of this? I tried to look during free time at work for info but ran out of time to compile it.

 

For those that ever get the chance you need to spend a quarter watching a game from the high seats with GG. Probably one of my favorite quarters ever as we discussed the schemes, broke down the plays, etc. Just amazing play by play between the two of us - he knows football. That was over 5 years ago, easily.

[GG1]

9 minutes ago, Boyst said:

Is that where you were getting all of this? I tried to look during free time at work for info but ran out of time to compile it.

 

For those that ever get the chance you need to spend a quarter watching a game from the high seats with GG. Probably one of my favorite quarters ever as we discussed the schemes, broke down the plays, etc. Just amazing play by play between the two of us - he knows football. That was over 5 years ago, easily.

 

I only used this site for the 3rd down conversions.  For the others, I download the Pro Football Reference stats and run with those.

 

I haven't done much football analysis ATOP lately.  Too much noise.  Fun to be back at it here.

[Boyst]

20 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

I only used this site for the 3rd down conversions.  For the others, I download the Pro Football Reference stats and run with those.

 

I haven't done much football analysis ATOP lately.  Too much noise.  Fun to be back at it here.

I haven't had the time to watch games like I did before. The urge has come to make time. Its been a very long time. ATOP I loved doing pbp in the shoutbox, calling plays, coverages, etc. I made Romo look like he learned from me 😁

 

I'll check out pfr this weekend. I want to see the correlation if listed of checks allen makes now and time he holds the ball. I have a theory on that where he is holding the ball less time but making more reads that earlier in the year.