NFL PLAYOFF MACHINE (updated weekly)

[You Dirty Rat]

sticky, geeez

[Ann]

 

[Ann]

 

 

 

[Ann]

 

 

 

[Dubs]

It seems to me the bills are pretty likely to play the Browns. 
 

im assuming that the bills and Steelers both take the opportunity they should to rest guys and both lose. If that happens the only way I can see that the bills don’t play the browns is if they ravens lose to the bengals!

[GG1]

9 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

It seems to me the bills are pretty likely to play the Browns. 
 

im assuming that the bills and Steelers both take the opportunity they should to rest guys and both lose. If that happens the only way I can see that the bills don’t play the browns is if they ravens lose to the bengals!

 

Bills play Browns only if they lose to Miami and Browns lose to Steelers.

Bills will play Miami or Indy, if they win. 

[Dubs]

2 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

Bills play Browns only if they lose to Miami and Browns lose to Steelers.

Bills will play Miami or Indy, if they win. 

really? I used the espn sim and had browns win bills lose and it came up with bills browns in WC. 

[GG1]

39 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

really? I used the espn sim and had browns win bills lose and it came up with bills browns in WC. 

If they make the playoffs Browns are locked in as 5 or 6 seed, meaning they can't play Bills unless Bills are 3rd seed

[Dubs]

7 minutes ago, GG1 said:

If they make the playoffs Browns are locked in as 5 or 6 seed, meaning they can't play Bills unless Bills are 3rd seed

Strange. The ESPN playoff simulator must be broken. 
 

I did a scenario where the bills and Steelers both finish at 12-4 and the colts, ravens, Titans, dolphins, and browns all finish at 11-5. It then shows the bills as the 2 and the browns as the 7.  Miami is the 5, Balt the 6, and the Titans win the south with the colts out. 
 

 

[GG1]

16 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

Strange. The ESPN playoff simulator must be broken. 
 

I did a scenario where the bills and Steelers both finish at 12-4 and the colts, ravens, Titans, dolphins, and browns all finish at 11-5. It then shows the bills as the 2 and the browns as the 7.  Miami is the 5, Balt the 6, and the Titans win the south with the colts out. 
 

 

Sorry meant to write that if Brown's beat the Steelers.

 

But based on the favorites that's not as likely as Bills winning on Sunday

[Boyst]

6 ways of 96 options indy can make it. They really got screwed in that steelers game.

 

I don't see Buffalo letting Miami win, or Pittsburgh giving enough to overcome Cleveland when cleveland has a chip on their shoulder. Nor do I see jacksonville beating Indy.

 

Therefore I see 4 outcomes likely. 

 

[Ann]

This is from November!!
 

 

[Dubs]

1 hour ago, Boyst said:

6 ways of 96 options indy can make it. They really got screwed in that steelers game.

 

I don't see Buffalo letting Miami win, or Pittsburgh giving enough to overcome Cleveland when cleveland has a chip on their shoulder. Nor do I see jacksonville beating Indy.

 

Therefore I see 4 outcomes likely. 

 

 

I really cannot see why the Bills would play most of their starters on Sunday.  Losing to the Dolphins does virtually nothing to hurt their chances in the playoffs.  However, seeing any significant player get injured is devastating to their chances in the playoffs.  In addition, getting what is essentially a bye week to let players with bumps and bruises rest is a nice bonus. I also think getting some players that don't typically get game work some action has some ancillary benefits in case someone does go down in the playoffs.

 

If I am McD, I am sitting, at a minimum:  Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, Morse, Beasley, Brown, Feliciano, Williams on offense.  On defense I am sitting: Hughes, Oliver, Edmunds, Milano, White, Power, Hyde.  I am also giving Roberts the week off.

 

 

 

 

[KD in CA]

24 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

 

I really cannot see why the Bills would play most of their starters on Sunday.  Losing to the Dolphins does virtually nothing to hurt their chances in the playoffs.  However, seeing any significant player get injured is devastating to their chances in the playoffs.  In addition, getting what is essentially a bye week to let players with bumps and bruises rest is a nice bonus. I also think getting some players that don't typically get game work some action has some ancillary benefits in case someone does go down in the playoffs.

 

If I am McD, I am sitting, at a minimum:  Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, Morse, Beasley, Brown, Feliciano, Williams on offense.  On defense I am sitting: Hughes, Oliver, Edmunds, Milano, White, Power, Hyde.  I am also giving Roberts the week off.

 

 

 

 

 

Of course they need to avoid significant injury, and hopefully they can empty the bench by 4Q, but I can think of two reasons to start everyone who is healthy:

-home field for round 2;  obviously not nearly as important without fans, but is still a benefit

-keeping a team that is on a roll, on a roll

 

[Dubs]

Here's my thinking on this:

 

First, I can't see the Browns losing on Sunday (I mean, it is the Browns, but they are going to be pissed and I think the Steelers kind of stink and are going to take the opportunity to rest, so I put the Browns as a heavy favorite on Sunday).  So assuming they win, that means the Bills would get the 2.

 

Second, let's look at the rest of the AFC games:

 

The rest of the contenders for the AFC wildcard games have matchups that heavily favor each of them.  The Ravens should beat the Bengals, the Colts should beat the Jaguars and the Titans should beat the Texans.

 

That leaves the Bills game.  If the above happens, which I believe is likely, then the Bills game means very little to them.  They will be the 2 seed regardless.  If they win, they would knock out the Dolphins and play the Colts instead of the Browns.  If they lose, the Dolphins would be the 5 seed and the Colts would be out.

 

So the question boils down to this:  Is playing the Colts worth putting your key players at risk of injury?  I say no.  Sit your players, rest, and get two weeks to prep for the Browns.

 

Just my $0.02.

 

 

[GG1]

26 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

 

I really cannot see why the Bills would play most of their starters on Sunday.  Losing to the Dolphins does virtually nothing to hurt their chances in the playoffs.  However, seeing any significant player get injured is devastating to their chances in the playoffs.  In addition, getting what is essentially a bye week to let players with bumps and bruises rest is a nice bonus. I also think getting some players that don't typically get game work some action has some ancillary benefits in case someone does go down in the playoffs.

 

If I am McD, I am sitting, at a minimum:  Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, Morse, Beasley, Brown, Feliciano, Williams on offense.  On defense I am sitting: Hughes, Oliver, Edmunds, Milano, White, Power, Hyde.  I am also giving Roberts the week off.

 

 

 

 

 

I disagree because a 2nd seed assures 2 home playoff games before traveling to KC for AFC East Championship.   Plus, losing to Phins would be the only scenario where it would be possible to play Balt in the first round, and I'd rather avoid that.

[Dubs]

1 minute ago, GG1 said:

 

I disagree because a 2nd seed assures 2 home playoff games before traveling to KC for AFC East Championship.   Plus, losing to Phins would be the only scenario where it would be possible to play Balt in the first round, and I'd rather avoid that.

 

Fair enough!  It's a fun discussion!

 

I just think the risk far outweighs the benefits.  Like I said earlier, if any of our key players get injured on Sunday, that's far worse than anything.  No team scares me in the playoffs.  Going on the road to Pitt is not a big deal, IMO.  I honestly don't even think that happens.  I think Pitt could and would lose to Baltimore in the WC round.

 

 

[KD in CA]

2 hours ago, GG1 said:

Sorry meant to write that if Brown's beat the Steelers.

 

But based on the favorites that's not as likely as Bills winning on Sunday

 

Actually, if the Browns, Miami, Ravens and Titans all win, I think the standings stay exactly as they are and we would play the Browns, no?

 

If the Colts, Bills, Ravens, Titans and Steelers all win, the Browns are out and I believe we get a Bills-Dolphins rematch.  Those are all the favorites winnings.

 

If we want to avoid the Titans, we should root for them to win Sunday.

 

I've also liked this site because they project the % for each slot and indicate who controls destiny or not:

 

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

[Dubs]

10 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

Actually, if the Browns, Miami, Ravens and Titans all win, I think the standings stay exactly as they are and we would play the Browns, no?

 

If the Colts, Bills, Ravens, Titans and Steelers all win, the Browns are out and I believe we get a Bills-Dolphins rematch.  Those are all the favorites winnings.

 

If we want to avoid the Titans, we should root for them to win Sunday.

 

I've also liked this site because they project the % for each slot and indicate who controls destiny or not:

 

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

 

According to CBS Sports, here's the favorites for the meaningful games:

 

Baltimore (-11.5) @ Cincy

Bills (-4.5) v. Miami

Colts (-14) v. Jax

Tennessee (-7.5) @ Houston

Browns (-7.5) v. Pitt

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Dubs part Dub

[Chandemonium]

42 minutes ago, Dubs part Dub said:

 

I really cannot see why the Bills would play most of their starters on Sunday.  Losing to the Dolphins does virtually nothing to hurt their chances in the playoffs.  However, seeing any significant player get injured is devastating to their chances in the playoffs.  In addition, getting what is essentially a bye week to let players with bumps and bruises rest is a nice bonus. I also think getting some players that don't typically get game work some action has some ancillary benefits in case someone does go down in the playoffs.

 

If I am McD, I am sitting, at a minimum:  Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, Morse, Beasley, Brown, Feliciano, Williams on offense.  On defense I am sitting: Hughes, Oliver, Edmunds, Milano, White, Power, Hyde.  I am also giving Roberts the week off.

 

 

 

 

Rosters aren’t big enough to sit all the guys you want to, plus the team will still be playing for the 2 seed. Some guys might get pulled early or rotated out more frequently depending on how our game is going and scoreboard watching the Steelers, but it’s not even possible to sit 4/5 of your starting o-line when there’s only 8 OL on the active roster.