Economy Thread

[SackMan518]

Real Average Hourly Wages Continue to Decline as Inflation Destroys Economy and Now Hours Worked is Contracting

 

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the September wage report delivering worse economic news for workers.

 

Real wages are dropping at a historic rate as inflation continues to rise and as a result wages buy less.

 

“Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2021 to September 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” 

 

[SackMan518]

Memba berries alert!

 

 

[SackMan518]

 

[SackMan518]

 

[Nouseforaname]

GDP up 2.6% annualized last quarter. 

[Foxx]

7 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

GDP up 2.6% annualized last quarter. 

There's an election coming, they wouldn't... nah.

 

[Nouseforaname]

7 minutes ago, Foxx said:

There's an election coming, they wouldn't... nah.

 

 

Did you read them?

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, Nouseforaname said:

 

Did you read them?

I did (and a bunch others) and speculation is that it is mainly due to exports and the war economy (arms sales) in Europe.

[Nouseforaname]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

I did (and a bunch others) and speculation is that it is mainly due to exports and the war economy (arms sales) in Europe.

 

Really? And you're takeaway is that the economy didn't grow during Q3 even though their sales growth increased (lower than expected but not by much).

The earnings are taking a hit because their forward looking guidance for the holiday season is not looking good which also explains why the fed is beginning to soften its tone on interest rate increases.

 

No it's all fixed.  

 

 

[Foxx]

Just now, Nouseforaname said:

 

Really? And you're takeaway is that the economy didn't grow during Q3 even though their sales growth increased (lower than expected but not by much).

The earnings are taking a hit because their forward looking guidance for the holiday season is not looking good which also explains why the fed is beginning to soften its tone on interest rate increases.

 

No it's all fixed.  

 

 

So... you're saying it's not going to be adjusted downward in the months ahead?

[Nouseforaname]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

So... you're saying it's not going to be adjusted downward in the months ahead?

 

Economic indicators are always adjusted no matter who is in charge.  Your insinuating that this is to get people reelected and comparing to Amazon future earnings is where I have an issue.

[Foxx]

29 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

 

Economic indicators are always adjusted no matter who is in charge.  Your insinuating that this is to get people reelected and comparing to Amazon future earnings is where I have an issue.

Ahh I see what you're saying. We were talking past one another a bit. You were talking towards the Amazon report and I was speaking to the GDP report. 

 

Well, in regard to the Amazon report on future earnings, I guess my argument then would be, if the economy is looking up, why would future revenue forecast be lower than what investors expected to be reported? Revenue was down year over year by about $300mm, of which included $1.1bn in income from it's stake in Rivian.

[Nouseforaname]

2 minutes ago, Foxx said:

Ahh I see what you're saying. We were talking past one another a bit. You were talking towards the Amazon report and I was speaking to the GDP report. 

 

Well, in regard to the Amazon report on future earnings, I guess my argument then would be, if the economy is looking up, why would future revenue forecast be lower than what investors expected to be reported? Revenue was down year over year by about $300mm, of which included a $1.1bn stake in Rivian.

The economy is not looking up, the gdp annualized for q3 was 2.6%.  Amazon is projecting their earnings for q4 to be below expectations which would be in line with the expected slowdown.

 

This is also explains why the fed is softening their expected rate increases. Yesterday the bank of Canada raised rates by lower than expected as well which means that leading indicators aren’t great. 

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, Nouseforaname said:

The economy is not looking up, the gdp annualized for q3 was 2.6%.  Amazon is projecting their earnings for q4 to be below expectations which would be in line with the expected slowdown.

 

This is also explains why the fed is softening their expected rate increases. Yesterday the bank of Canada raised rates by lower than expected as well which means that leading indicators aren’t great. 

According to the GDP data (if it can be believed), it is certainly looking much better than the first two quarters this year.

[Nouseforaname]

47 minutes ago, Foxx said:

According to the GDP data (if it can be believed), it is certainly looking much better than the first two quarters this year.

Looks like consumer spending decreased while other measures increased offsetting the terrible start of the year.

 

 

[Foxx]

Another red flag

 

[Foxx]

@Nouseforaname

I'd love to hear your argument for the other side of this.

 

Rest of thread

 

[Nouseforaname]

57 minutes ago, Foxx said:

@Nouseforaname

I'd love to hear your argument for the other side of this.

 

Rest of thread

 

 

I don’t disagree with much.  China was giving us cheap goods but other partners obviously could be an alternative.

 

As long as the United States is the reserve currency it could continue to keep borrowing and I don’t believe that status will go away for a long time.

 

The west in terms of quality of life is still the most favorable which will attract more immigration which obviously helps with regards to demographics. It’s also been able to adapt much quicker than its rivals.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Nouseforaname

[Foxx]

10 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

I don’t disagree with much.  China was giving us cheap goods but other partners obviously could be an alternative.

 

As long as the United States is the reserve currency it could continue to keep borrowing and I don’t believe that status will go away for a long time.

 

The west in terms of quality of life is still the most favorable which will attract more immigration which obviously helps with regards to demographics. It’s also been able to adapt much quicker than its rivals.

So you don't think the next 20 will be very different or that a severe correction is coming?

[Nouseforaname]

33 minutes ago, Foxx said:

So you don't think the next 20 will be very different or that a severe correction is coming?

Very different and severe correction are two different things.

 

Remember that different places have different economic realities.  Quebec for example has major demographic issues which has been rectified by allowing immigration from predominantly French countries.  We also have an abundance of energy from hydro.  Historically Quebec was a province that didn’t do well economically but we are turning into an economic powerhouse.

 

If you look at the west in general, most of the economic issues are self inflicted.