Economy Thread

[devnull]

3 hours ago, Ann said:

Bad news (we are officially in a recession)
 

First-quarter GDP declined 1.5%, worse than thought; jobless claims edge lower

• First-quarter GDP declined at a 1.5% annual pace, worse than the 1.3% Dow Jones estimate and a writedown from the initially reported 1.4%.
• The pullback in GDP represented the worst quarter since the pandemic-scarred Q2 of 2020.
• Initial jobless claims totaled 210,000, a decline of 8,000 from the previous week.

 

 

Not yet a Recession.  A Recession is consecutive quarters of negative GDP

 

While I suspect Q2 GDP will also be negative, I also suspect the Q2 books will be cooked to show at least a slight uptick. 

 

The Narrative won't allow an official Recession during an Election year with a Democrat government

[Ann]

3 hours ago, devnull said:

 

Not yet a Recession.  A Recession is consecutive quarters of negative GDP

Ah, right, end of June (end of Q2)

[Foxx]

On 5/26/2022 at 4:49 PM, Ann said:

Ah, right, end of June (end of Q2)

Officially in a (mostly global) recession starting tomorrow.

[devnull]

4 hours ago, Foxx said:

Officially in a (mostly global) recession starting tomorrow.

 

I dunno, we may avoid a Recession after the Government and Corporate Media have finished analyzing the data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nouseforaname]

15 hours ago, devnull said:

 

I dunno, we may avoid a Recession after the Government and Corporate Media have finished analyzing the data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’re in correction territory either way.  
 

Recessions are inevitable.

Edited July 1, 2022 by Nouseforaname

[devnull]

3 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

We’re in correction territory either way.  
 

Recessions are inevitable.

 

True, but a Recession during a Democrat administration contradicts The Narrative

[Ann]

Supply chain: 'We are seeing more shifts' to America's East Coast

 

Shippers have started sending more freight to ports on the East Coast while the other side of the country navigates supply chain woes.

 

According to the latest data from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, there were an average 22 container ships waiting per day at the Ambrose Anchorage, which serves the NYC metropolitan area. Ships waited an average 5.25 days to actually dock.

 

In its latest market update, Flexport said "East Coast and Gulf congestion will continue through July, with vessels at anchor in New York, Norfolk, and Savannah; 36 ships at the end of June awaiting berths with wait times in the 7-10 day range."

 

"We are seeing more shifts coming over here," a spokesperson from Port Authority of New York and New Jersey told Yahoo Finance. "We are handling right now 33% more containers that we have when we were in pre-pandemic 2019 in the same period."

 

</snip>

 

"Retailers, they are basically sending their goods to all four corners of the United States instead of just all going to the West Coast... that's because of the supply chain issues that's been happening in the past two years," the Port Authority spokesperson said.

 

"They decided that they would rather just get it here [the East Coast] and then just truck it, or rail it to the final destination, wherever it may be and that could end up, will end up being faster and sometimes cheaper than just sending everything to the same port on the same coast," they added.

 

This is more expensive: It costs around $7,400 to transport 40-foot container from China to the West Coast while the cost of shipments to the East Coast are around $9,900, according to Freightos Baltic Index Data.

Prices for shipping to the West Coast getting cheaper, with Oxford Economics data showing prices down 20% month-over-month.

 

</snip>

 

ummmmm 

 

"In the last couple months, it seems that as there's been this decreased in demand all of a sudden," Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, told Yahoo Finance. "There's extra space on these vessels and now rates have started to fall."

 

</snip>

[Foxx]

Now do one where what we were paying compared to what we are now paying.

 

you peson you...

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

[Ann]

Everyone sees this coming. People were scrambling for a house before the rates went up, new build permits have cooled considerably, and the broken supply chain has exacerbated the problems, etc., etc. 

‘We’re heading into a housing recession’: Here’s what the NAHB CEO sees in real estate right now — and why it spells big trouble for the economy
Vishesh Raisinghani
Thu, July 28, 2022 at 7:00 AM

 

Housing, which is a key segment of the national economy, looks extraordinarily weak right now, according to a recent report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

 

“We’re heading into a recession,” NAHB CEO Jerry Howard told Bloomberg in a recent interview. He described how a rapid decline in homebuilding and demand for new homes could drag the national economy lower.

 

</snip>

 

Housing leads every recession since Second World War

 

Residential real estate is an integral part of the American economy. In fact, housing activity contributes between 15% to 18% of gross domestic product (GDP) every year, according to the NAHB. A slowdown in this sector naturally pulls down the rest of the economy.

 

A decline in home building and buying has led to every recession since the end of the Second World War, according to Howard. The association’s latest report indicates that buyers and builders are both pulling back from the market yet again, which could be a leading indicator for another recession on the horizon in 2022.

 

Builders are holding off Homebuilders face multiple demand- and supply-side pressures.

 

On the demand front, potential homebuyers have receded from the market. Existing home sales slid 5.4% in June. Meanwhile, borrowing capacity has been curtailed by rising interest rates. The average mortgage rate has accelerated at the fastest pace in 35 years. A 15-year fixed rate mortgage is now about 4.8%, up from 2.2% a year ago. These factors have effectively destroyed demand.

 

Meanwhile, the supply chain for home building material and the cost of labor continues to increase the cost of building new homes. This is why homebuilders' sentiment dropped 12 points in June, according to the NAHB survey.

 

</snip>

[Ann]

Second jobs for some. The dole no longer enough with rampant inflation? Whatever it is, maybe all those "help wanted" signs will finally come down?

 

Jobs shocker: U.S. adds 528,000 jobs in July and unemployment falls to pre-pandemic levels

 

</snip>

 

The increase in hiring blew past Wall Street estimates. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 258,000 new jobs.

 

Hiring was broad-based as businesses created the most new jobs in five months. The number of people working finally returned to February 2020 levels — the last month before the pandemic.

 

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5% from 3.6%, the government said Friday, matching the lowest level since the late 1960s.

 

</snip>

 

The risks of recession are rising, however.

 

Key details: Hotels, bars, restaurants and other companies in the hospitality business added 96,000 jobs, reflecting a busy summer as Americans get out more often.

 

Professional businesses created 89,000 jobs, health-care employment rose by 70,000 and government payrolls increased by 57,000. Manufacturers also added 30,000 jobs while construction firms hired 32,000 people.

 

The one big negative in the July jobs report was another decline in the share of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one.

 

The so-called rate of participation in the labor market fell a tick to 62.1%, marking the lowest level since the end of 2021.

</snip>

[Nouseforaname]

On 7/27/2022 at 12:36 PM, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

This is the problem with ideology.  One can argue that we are in a recession but also argue that the conditions are not as bad as previous recessions but to argue that we’re not in a recession is a flat out lie.

[Nouseforaname]

Despite the recession, earnings are still decent and the market has started to recover.

 

We probably didn’t hit the bottom but I could be wrong.

[Ann]

2 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

Despite the recession, earnings are still decent and the market has started to recover.

 

We probably didn’t hit the bottom but I could be wrong.

The market is nuts looking for anything to signify the Feds will not raise rates. What happens when consumers stop spending and earnings suffer? Will the market fall, or will it be all is well?
 

 

[Nouseforaname]

12 minutes ago, Ann said:

The market is nuts looking for anything to signify the Feds will not raise rates. What happens when consumers stop spending and earnings suffer? Will the market fall, or will it be all is well?
 

 

The market has already priced in the drop in consumption based on some earnings calls I’ve listened to. The question is, can they ride through the storm?

 

Wall street seems to think yes but that could obviously change.

[Ann]

3 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

The market has already priced in the drop in consumption based on some earnings calls I’ve listened to. The question is, can they ride through the storm?

 

Wall street seems to think yes but that could obviously change.

I've got a decent chunk of change waiting in the wings hoping some reality sets in on these people. But, I've thought the market has had no bearing on reality for quite some time now, so what do I know? 
 

[Nouseforaname]

2 minutes ago, Ann said:

I've got a decent chunk of change waiting in the wings hoping some reality sets in on these people. But, I've thought the market has had no bearing on reality for quite some time now, so what do I know? 
 

I don’t like to time the market.  It has failed me in the past. If you believe that the company you are investing in will outlast the recession, hold on to it.

 

 

[Nouseforaname]

22 hours ago, Ann said:

I've got a decent chunk of change waiting in the wings hoping some reality sets in on these people. But, I've thought the market has had no bearing on reality for quite some time now, so what do I know? 
 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531548-spy-this-rebound-could-be-viable

[Nouseforaname]

30 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531548-spy-this-rebound-could-be-viable

@Ann it’s not the first analyst that has predicted that we’ve hit the bottom already but we’ll see what the data continues to show.

[SackMan518]

List of Tax Hikes in Democrat Reconciliation Bill

 

• $6.5 Billion Natural Gas Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills     
• $12 Billion Crude Oil Tax Which Will Increase Household Costs
• $1.2 Billion Coal Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills
• $225 Billion Corporate Income Tax Hike Which Will Be Passed on to Households
• $74 Billion Stock Tax Which Will Hit Your Nest Egg — 401(k)s, IRAs and Pension Plans
• 95% Federal Excise Tax on American Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
• $52 Billion Income Tax Hike on Mid-Sized & Family Businesses
• Supersizing the IRS to Increase Audits – $204 Billion