Economy Thread

[Chef Jim]

Ok ok I get it 

[Jauronimo]

On 2/6/2021 at 2:02 PM, RochesterRob said:

  I just visited Lowe's while making my trip into town.  2 X 4 X 8 is 6.86 each.  Common stud about a buck less per board.  Down quite a bit from last June but still 3 times the pre pandemic price.  The startling thing I saw was 29 ga 36" sheet metal roofing 8 ft length was 40 dollars.  I had not priced such roofing for a year but a 12 ft length was 14 - 18 dollars per sheet previously depending on who you priced and the quantity.  I wish I could tell a contractor when he says the "price has skyrocketed"  "OK, I'll cut you a check for the difference." in the most bored and nonchalant manner possible.  I know framing is just one part of building a home but for something 2,000 sq ft or more that has to add up into the many thousands of dollars.

For whatever reason I can't actually quote the original post (weird) but I am interested in how Biden made gas prices increase as you suggest.  Could rising fuel prices have something to do with these arctic fronts sweeping the country, or seasonal trends in fuel prices or maybe just the relationship between inventory, crude production, refinery utilization, and crack spreads?

[GG1]

45 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

For whatever reason I can't actually quote the original post (weird) but I am interested in how Biden made gas prices increase as you suggest.  Could rising fuel prices have something to do with these arctic fronts sweeping the country, or seasonal trends in fuel prices or maybe just the relationship between inventory, crude production, refinery utilization, and crack spreads?

 

See what Tom wrote above.  In reality, the near term spikes are attributed much more to the weather, given where the vast majority of the refining infrastructure lies.

 

Having said that, there's very little optimism that later this year prices will fall back down to last year's levels, because by then, the increased supply constraints of Biden's policies will be in place.

[RochesterRob]

17 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

See what Tom wrote above.  In reality, the near term spikes are attributed much more to the weather, given where the vast majority of the refining infrastructure lies.

 

Having said that, there's very little optimism that later this year prices will fall back down to last year's levels, because by then, the increased supply constraints of Biden's policies will be in place.

  Suppliers take ready advantage of any events that negatively impact availability of product in terms of the retail price.  Even with any news regarding  supplies in 2020 I seldom saw much of a variance in pricing with 209.9 per gallon the median price.  The Midwest saw an early arrival of winter, other producers of crude oil restricted output to put upward pressure on crude prices, and refiners saw disruptions and yet the retail price was nearly level.  Prices were still around 209.9 per gallon as of Mid-January.  We are at 2.55 per gallon as of this morning when I stopped for gas.  I have a hard time believing that in not barely a month I have seen a 45 cent increase is due to strictly to weather, production, or refining in that period of time.  I talk to my fuel supplier as I am a user of oil for heat and he confirms what has been said in terms of declining use of fuel oil furnaces in the NE and upper Midwest as home owners replaced older oil burning units in favor of cleaner and more efficient propane or natural gas. 

[GG1]

41 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Suppliers take ready advantage of any events that negatively impact availability of product in terms of the retail price.  Even with any news regarding  supplies in 2020 I seldom saw much of a variance in pricing with 209.9 per gallon the median price.  The Midwest saw an early arrival of winter, other producers of crude oil restricted output to put upward pressure on crude prices, and refiners saw disruptions and yet the retail price was nearly level.  Prices were still around 209.9 per gallon as of Mid-January.  We are at 2.55 per gallon as of this morning when I stopped for gas.  I have a hard time believing that in not barely a month I have seen a 45 cent increase is due to strictly to weather, production, or refining in that period of time.  I talk to my fuel supplier as I am a user of oil for heat and he confirms what has been said in terms of declining use of fuel oil furnaces in the NE and upper Midwest as home owners replaced older oil burning units in favor of cleaner and more efficient propane or natural gas. 

 

What you describe is a gradual replacement cycle which wouldn't cause a sudden spike in prices, such as a major weather event that disrupts up to 50% of USA's refining capacity.

[RochesterRob]

10 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

What you describe is a gradual replacement cycle which wouldn't cause a sudden spike in prices, such as a major weather event that disrupts up to 50% of USA's refining capacity.

  Texas weather has been an issue for only a little over a week of which we saw an upward price move of a nickel with more yet to come.  Explain the other 40 cents prior?

[GG1]

10 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Texas weather has been an issue for only a little over a week of which we saw an upward price move of a nickel with more yet to come.  Explain the other 40 cents prior?

 

Retail and Wholesale price indices do not agree with your situation.  Could be your supplier spinning a tale.  According to EIA data, retail heating oil is cheaper this season than last season.   Across the USA and in the Midwest.

[RochesterRob]

35 minutes ago, GG1 said:

 

Retail and Wholesale price indices do not agree with your situation.  Could be your supplier spinning a tale.  According to EIA data, retail heating oil is cheaper this season than last season.   Across the USA and in the Midwest.

  I was talking about pump prices and even said 2.55 at the pump when I stopped for gas.  I only talked about my supplier in terms of oil used for heat.  When I purchased heating oil late October of 2020 the price was around 1.85 per gallon without finding the invoice.  I've seen other news that indicates a trend away from oil fuel heat dating back to the 1970's most likely due in part to the Arab (can we still say that?) Oil Embargo in 1973.  Back to pump prices the lowest in 2020 was around 1.87 per gallon for 87 grade back around early May.  There was movement towards 2.22 per gallon 87 grade around Labor Day and then retreated.  209.9 is truly a mode price as it recurred often during the year.  If I took the time to calculate the same price has to be near the median.

Edited February 19, 2021 by RochesterRob

[GG1]

8 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I was talking about pump prices and even said 2.55 at the pump when I stopped for gas.  I only talked about my supplier in terms of oil used for heat.  When I purchased heating oil late October of 2020 the price was around 1.85 per gallon without finding the invoice.  I've seen other news that indicates a trend away from oil fuel heat dating back to the 1970's most likely due in part to the Arab (can we still say that?) Oil Embargo in 1973.  Back to pump prices the lowest in 2020 was around 1.87 per gallon for 87 grade back around early May.  There was movement towards 2.22 per gallon 87 grade around Labor Day and then retreated.  209.9 is truly a median price as median describes a number that occurs most often in a set of numerical data.

 

Pump prices are the reflection of improving economies, which are driving up the price of crude.  Prices are now in line with pre-Covid levels, and will continue to rise.

[B-Man]

 

JOEL KOTKIN: Economic Civil War. 

 

“The schism is between two ways of making a living, one based in the incorporeal world of media and digital transactions, the other in the tangible world of making, growing, and using real things.”

 

 

 

 

[Ann]

Stop paying people extra to not work?
 

 

[Ann]

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is calling on Congress to cancel the extra $300 in weekly unemployment benefits, citing worker shortages.
 

"The disappointing jobs report makes it clear that paying people not to work is dampening what should be a stronger jobs market," U.S. Chamber of Commerce Chief Policy Officer Neil Bradley said in a statement on Friday. "One step policymakers should take now is ending the $300 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit. Based on the Chamber’s analysis, the $300 benefit results in approximately one in four recipients taking home more in unemployment than they earned working."
 

</snip>

[KD in CA]

My brother was talking about how FedEx couldn't get drivers/package handlers b/c of the unemployment comp as far back as last summer.  Dems are trying to create a massive and permanent welfare class.

[Keukasmallie]

One segment of the economy that appears to be booming is the market for members of communities of color seeking employment in the making of commercials for TV.  I never suspected that there were so many minority actors just waiting for jobs to open up for them.  Of course, the flip side of that opportunity is that non-minority actors must be scrambling.  

 

The economic and social peaks and valleys apparent in the past two years are interesting, eh?

[MothersMilk]

On 2/19/2021 at 2:46 PM, GG1 said:

 

Pump prices are the reflection of improving economies, which are driving up the price of crude.  Prices are now in line with pre-Covid levels, and will continue to rise.

Kind of weird when a gallon of gas costs more than a gallon of milk though. 

[LB3]

 

 

[GG1]

On 8/27/2021 at 10:53 AM, LB3 said:

 

 

 

This will be a good litmus test if the liquidity starts to return to normalcy, but rates continue to be low.

 

A cynic would say that banks will be in a bind because balance sheets (ability to lend) will be constrained, but low interest rates will necessitate taking greater risk to maintain earnings.

 

I think I’ve seen this movie in the regulated energy industry.  Someone please remind me how that one ended?

 

Good times indeed.

[Uncle Joe]

On 9/4/2021 at 6:05 PM, GG1 said:

 

I think I’ve seen this movie in the regulated energy industry.  Someone please remind me how that one ended?

What was the difference between Enron and Qwest?





about 6 months.

[B-Man]

[Jackson]