Economy Thread

[Chef Jim]

5 hours ago, Cinga said:

More on the Biden "stimulus"

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/biden-covid-relief-plan-increase-spending-study

 

 

Sorry, but THAT is the definition of a DEPRESSION

 

Politicians have zero concern of how their decisions of today will affect the country tomorrow.  

[Alaska Darin]

21 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Politicians have zero concern of how their decisions of today will affect the country tomorrow.  

Why should they?  They're re-elected regardless.

[GG1]

Business press is ebullient about a booming recovery in store for this year, which doesn't match the chatter I hear that companies will capitalize on the Covid cost savings (headcount & real estate reductions) to drive profit growth.  Revenues will grow from depressed 2020 levels, but don't expect much of a trickle down to the working class.

[Chef Jim]

2 minutes ago, GG1 said:

Business press is ebullient about a booming recovery in store for this year, which doesn't match the chatter I hear that companies will capitalize on the Covid cost savings (headcount & real estate reductions) to drive profit growth.  Revenues will grow from depressed 2020 levels, but don't expect much of a trickle down to the working class.

 

Silly...that's the government's job.  

[KD in CA]

33 minutes ago, GG1 said:

Business press is ebullient about a booming recovery in store for this year, which doesn't match the chatter I hear that companies will capitalize on the Covid cost savings (headcount & real estate reductions) to drive profit growth.  Revenues will grow from depressed 2020 levels, but don't expect much of a trickle down to the working class.

 

Bingo. I've spent a lot of time the past month working on those two specific cost reductions as the parent company is planning for a significant expansion of profit this year and next.

[GG1]

Welcome back to the days of jobless economic recoveries.

 

Forward!

[plenzmd1]

interesting Ford needs to cut back on F-150 production due to lack of chips...

[Cinga]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

interesting Ford needs to cut back on F-150 production due to lack of chips...

I can help with that! Where's my bonus check? I might even be willing to throw in some dip!

 

[RochesterRob]

  Not even 3 weeks into the Biden Era and fuel prices are up a quarter per gallon.  Rising fuel prices are never good for making an economy rebound.  

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  Not even 3 weeks into the Biden Era and fuel prices are up a quarter per gallon.  Rising fuel prices are never good for making an economy rebound.  

While this is true, to my way of thinking, with the unprecedented economic stress that the elite put on the economy via their lockdowns, emerging from that, an uptick in gas prices in baked in the cake as it were.

 

If indeed that is true, then the question becomes where will they level off at. I'm sure they will be higher because of the Keystone pipeline shut down, but will that be after a full economic recovery or before. Either way, it is going to be hard to make an apples to apples comparison. 

[RochesterRob]

  I just visited Lowe's while making my trip into town.  2 X 4 X 8 is 6.86 each.  Common stud about a buck less per board.  Down quite a bit from last June but still 3 times the pre pandemic price.  The startling thing I saw was 29 ga 36" sheet metal roofing 8 ft length was 40 dollars.  I had not priced such roofing for a year but a 12 ft length was 14 - 18 dollars per sheet previously depending on who you priced and the quantity.  I wish I could tell a contractor when he says the "price has skyrocketed"  "OK, I'll cut you a check for the difference." in the most bored and nonchalant manner possible.  I know framing is just one part of building a home but for something 2,000 sq ft or more that has to add up into the many thousands of dollars.

[Nanker]

23 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Not even 3 weeks into the Biden Era and fuel prices are up a quarter per gallon.  Rising fuel prices are never good for making an economy rebound.  

Have you checked out the price of beef these days at the grocery store? Hamburger is about $6.99 a Lb. 

[RochesterRob]

20 minutes ago, Nanker said:

Have you checked out the price of beef these days at the grocery store? Hamburger is about $6.99 a Lb. 

  Yep, I buy it every week.  Used to be when 95 percent was around 5 dollars just a couple of years ago I would buy around 3 pounds per week.  Not any more.  I just bought a few pounds of boneless chicken breasts this past shopping day.  I'm going to try my hand at chicken stew among other things as a substitute for ground beef.  I'm pretty rigid on my grocery budget.  I have not bought a can of Campbell's tomato soup for quite a while now.  1.19 per can?  I can remember my mother buying it while I was a small kid back in 1970 for 5 cents per can.

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

Didn't beef herds have to be culled last spring because COVID disrupted feed transporation?

  Not to my knowledge.  You most likely are thinking of milk being dumped especially in WNY due lack of pickup to go to processing plants.  Beef production is typically low input with all materials typically found on the farm such as hay and silage.  If there was culling with dairy or beef it most likely was isolated versus being widespread.  On the meat front some hogs were not picked up for the slaughter plant forcing some on the spot kills and burials.  Hogs in confined operations typically do not see the outdoors and there is critical timing as to generations moving through facilities.  For the most part beef operations can handle a 30-60 day backup in terms of inventory even when it affects profit.  If somebody knows different then please post.  

[Boyst]

On 2/9/2021 at 3:48 PM, DC Tom said:

 

Didn't beef herds have to be culled last spring because COVID disrupted feed transporation?

Beef, not as much.  Chicken, pork, fish yes. Beef won't be impacted yet. I read it in the trade magazines but anyone with knowledge of ag understands it.

 

FFarmers, including myself, had a market run on beef. We harvested our animals as soon as we can get a date. Our animals that went to seedstock went to package beef. Anything 1000+ went to meat because the prices paid so good. Normally that's a 12 mos to 15 month old steer. But heifers were harvested toward the middle of the summer when we already harvested our steers. We also banded a few more of our bull calves instead of making sites.

 

essentially, we cashed out early on the beef and will be short over the next year and two years when the ripple effects of harvesting early come. That's this spring through next spring.

 

chicken and pork feed out faster. A pig, sheep, or goat is ready for harvest in as little as 6-8 months depending on the breed. A chicken is 12 to 14 weeks. Having a turnaround of just 3 months for chickens isn't a big deal, the supply there will bounce back so long as logistics can move the chickens from the brood houses to the hen houses, etc.

 

pork will be a logistical issue because the farms are fairly well spread out

 

The other issue is the harvesting plants. Generally run and staffed by hispanics who live in multigenerational households which enable superspreading of the Wuhan Virus.

[Chef Jim]

On 2/6/2021 at 9:15 AM, RochesterRob said:

  Not even 3 weeks into the Biden Era and fuel prices are up a quarter per gallon.  Rising fuel prices are never good for making an economy rebound.  

 

No one is driving to work these days and many may never go back to doing it ever again.  Who cares about gas prices?  

[Chef Jim]

49 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

No one is driving to work these days and many may never go back to doing it ever again.  Who cares about gas prices?  

 

@Ann  My point is that gas prices, though typically important, they are nowhere near as important as they used to be.  My wife hasn't commuted to work in almost a year. That's probably $1,000 a year we're no longer spending on gas.  I had a client say the battery in her car keeps dying because she never drives.   I commute every day and have rarely hit traffic which is saying something for SoCal.  

[Ann]

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

 

@Ann  My point is that gas prices, though typically important, they are nowhere near as important as they used to be.  My wife hasn't commuted to work in almost a year. That's probably $1,000 a year we're no longer spending on gas.  I had a client say the battery in her car keeps dying because she never drives.   I commute every day and have rarely hit traffic which is saying something for SoCal.  

How do goods get to the stores? Your home? Your personal vehicle’s gas tank is only one aspect of higher fuel prices.

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

 

No one is driving to work these days and many may never go back to doing it ever again.  Who cares about gas prices?  

  Rising fuel prices impact many businesses who have to charge the end user the difference.  Lumber from the forest to the mill then on to the retailer.  Here in the Northeast fuel for shipping is typically a third of the cost of fertilizer to farmers.  Most grocery stores have product shipped in from several hundred miles away on average.  

[devnull]

2 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

 

No one is driving to work these days and many may never go back to doing it ever again.  Who cares about gas prices?  

 

Delivery drivers for Amazon, Walmart, Doordash, etc