2023 NFL Draft (because I'm bored)

[Alaska Darin]

4 hours ago, Ann said:

TE

 

 

I wouldn't be mad if the BILLS found an elite TE in this draft and paired him with JA17 for the next dozen seasons .  We just watched Mahomes win a SB with Kelce and a buncha JAG WRs/RBs. 

 

In the long term it's literally irrelevant where your great player was drafted.  What matters is you drafted him.  If there's a Pro Bowl/Top 5 in the NFL TE there at 27 and you pass on him to take a "decent" other position player, you flat out missed.

 

[Spartacus]

7 hours ago, Alaska Darin said:

I wouldn't be mad if the BILLS found an elite TE in this draft and paired him with JA17 for the next dozen seasons .  We just watched Mahomes win a SB with Kelce and a buncha JAG WRs/RBs. 

 

In the long term it's literally irrelevant where your great player was drafted.  What matters is you drafted him.  If there's a Pro Bowl/Top 5 in the NFL TE there at 27 and you pass on him to take a "decent" other position player, you flat out missed.

 

it's not like the Bills don't have experience passing on difference makers at TE (Gronk) for a "need"

[Spartacus]

For all obsessed with the Bills running the ball more

 

From Joey Ickes Twitter:

In honor of my friends who work in higher ed. I feel it’s time for a full refresher on the "Running Backs Don't Matter 101" course as teams ready for their next big exam next week. The data is overwhelming.

https://twitter.com/JoeyIckes/status/1649459088428859413

 

1.     The studies on the running game go back to as early as 2011 when Brian Burke clarified just how inefficient running the ball was compared to passing.

https://slate.com/culture/2011/11/nfl-offense-running-for-three-yards-is-like-going-backwards.html

 

2.     Then in 2014 Dr. Ed Feng looked at 10 years of data that showed that rushing efficiency contributed to only ~4.4% of the variance in wins, vs the passing game contributing ~62%

https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

 

3.     Around 2017-2018 the data really cranked up on RBs themselves.

-Josh Hermsmeyer looked at 10 years of rushing data, and found that two factors accounted for 96%(!) of rushing gains... Those two factors?

-Field position, and # of defenders in the box...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-secret-to-the-rams-blocking-success-isnt-the-linemen-its-sean-mcvay/

 

4.     Then Eric and George from PFF added to that study, finding that in addition to Josh's two factors, the actual run concept on a play moves the needle in rushing EPA more than the quality (determined by PFF grade) of the actual ball carrier.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-are-nfl-running-backs-easily-replaceable-the-story-of-the-2018-nfl-season

 

5.     Add that to the study by Ben Baldwin showing that RBs drafted in the top-20 are no better than the league average on a yards per carry basis. There’s also a nugget in here about RBs having the highest 1st rd bust rate of all offensive positions

Don’t do it. Like, ever.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/2/23/17041846/nfl-draft-running-back-2018-top-20-saquon-barkley-leonard-fournette-ezekiel-elliott

 

6.     Since we know with these studies (and others) that running backs have very little influence on the success of a running game, and that running game success has little impact on winning games, the argument moves to the passing game.

Does a RB matter if he can be a pass catcher?

 

Well, in this study, Eric Eager (again) shows that passes thrown to RBs are the less efficient, less valuable, and less stable year over year, than targets to any other position.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-forecast-examines-value-of-coverage-and-receiving

 

 

7.     Ben Baldwin confirmed that study in this one, where his data showed that targets to RBs have about 1/4 of the EPA per play of targets to TE, and even less vs targets to WR, and a lower success rate (positive EPA) than targets to TE or WRs.

 

The best catchers of the football are the players who play positions primarily geared toward, well, catching the football.

https://theathletic.com/1143546/2019/08/21/throwing-to-running-backs-the-latest-nfl-craze-that-doesnt-make-any-sense/

 

 

 

 

8.     The next question would be, what if a RB can line up as a wide receiver or in the slot on some plays. Does that change the equation?

Back to Eric and George at PFF... RBs lined up in the slot were far less efficient than WRs and TEs lined up in the slot.

What's the true value of a slot weapon in today's NFL market

PFF Data Scientists Dr. Eric Eager & George Chahrouri take a deeper look at how valuable a weapon from the slot is for NFL offenses, and how pivotal a slot receiver is to offensive success.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-examining-the-value-of-offensive-slot-weapons

 

 

9.     So if the running game itself doesn't help you win, the RB doesn't impact the running game, and regularly throwing to a RB is a losing proposition, maybe there are secondary benefits?

Maybe having a good RB & a good running game helps the play action game?

Well our friend Ben found that "teams don't need to run often -- or run well -- to set up play-action. Play-action works for teams that run frequently, infrequently, well, or poorly"

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing

 

 

10.  Ok so then maybe a good running back and a good running game keeps the defense rested?

Well FBO did the work & found that "the main - and perhaps only - channel through which an offense can help a defense on a per-drive basis is through field position."

Defense and Rest Time

Do defenses really wear out over the course of a game? Do defenses benefit from long drives that give them more time to rest on the sideline? Guest columnist Ben Baldwin investigates.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/defense-and-rest-time

 

 

11.  So in review of our review... Running backs don't help the running game, they're inherently inefficient in the passing game compared to WR's and TEs. They don't improve play action effectiveness, and they don't help your defense...

 

12.  Additionally, drafting RBs high is not "safer" than other positions, and does not correlate to better production from the RB position.

You just can't legitimately justify the idea of spending premium (picks or $$) on the running back position, with any quantifiable measures.

[Nanker]

So, in your dream scenario, Rodger steps  up to the podium and announces: “The Philadelphia Eagles have traded the Tenth pick in The Draft to The Buffalo Bills. The Bills send their 27th pick in The Draft, Tight End Dawson Knox, and Wide Receiver Gabe Davis to The Eagles. 
 

With the 10th pick in The Draft, The Bills pick Bijan Robinson, Running Back - Texas.”

 

You're welcome. 

[Spartacus]

somebody trying real hard to get Stroud to drop.

could be the Colts trying a new strategy, as they didn't tank good enough to get the top pick 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1649506939791982595

 

REPORT: “Stroud scored 18,” an #NFL executive said: “That is like red alert, red alert, you can’t take a guy like that. That is why I have Stroud as a bust. That in conjunction with the fact, name one Ohio State quarterback that’s ever done it in the league.”

When another executive was informed that Stroud scored extremely low, he said that it confirmed what he had seen on tape, per and via @BobMcGinn:

“That was my concern with him,” the scout said. “His personality is just sort of calm and mellow and laidback, and that’s the way he plays. You look at how Bryce Young plays and how Stroud plays, I don’t see how anyone can look at those two play football and you’d want that guy (Stroud) over Young. Bryce’s mind is so quick and he processes so fast. Whereas with Stroud, everything is much, much more programmed.”

One NFC executive described the S2 as a “great test.” Said an AFC executive: “For quarterbacks, it’s been pretty good,” another executive said S2 made inroads early in its existence testing hitters for major league baseball clubs.

“Then they started doing it in football,” the executive said. “If you get a high score as a quarterback it’s not saying you’re going to be a great player. But if you get a low score, it’s 100% — none of the quarterbacks that got a low score became good players.
 

 

[Alaska Darin]

 

[Alaska Darin]

Hmmmmmmm

 

 

[Ann]

Destinations
 

 

[B-Man]

 

[Ann]

Safe? Or high risk, high return?

[KD in CA]

37 minutes ago, Ann said:

Safe? Or high risk, high return?

 

Personally, I'd have to think hard to name six guys on the Eagles team just a couple months after watching them in the SB.

 

For as long as Allen is healthy the Bills are in the running.  That means the answer is they need to focus on hitting doubles in the draft. 

 

Think about where they'd be if Ford, Epenesa and Basham had been doubles instead of ground outs.

[Spartacus]

looks like Walter is helping some team or agent to trash some players

who wants these guys to drop?

 

https://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/2023-NFL-Draft-Week-Rumors-Monday

• Late in the draft process, teams get their medical reports, and if players get flunked medically, they can be dropped off draft boards. One high-profile prospect who some teams have flunked medically is Georgia tight end Darnell Washington. Along with the medical, some team sources said there are some minor character concerns. If Washington slides on the second day of the 2023 NFL Draft, the medical and the character will be the reasons why.
  
  
   
• Another tight end who has been hurt by the medical evaluation is Iowa's Sam LaPorta. LaPorta is a sleeper prospect who a lot of teams really loved. In speaking to sources at multiple teams, they said the medical report was not bad enough to get LaPorta dropped off their board. However, it was not clean ,and it would be the reason if LaPorta slides into the middle or back half of the second round during the 2023 NFL Draft.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Spartacus

[Nanker]

Thurman had a busted knee. Gronk had a bad back. Some players have halitosis.
 

It’s all a crap shoot   

[Jabba The Hutt]

17 hours ago, KD in CA said:

 

Personally, I'd have to think hard to name six guys on the Eagles team just a couple months after watching them in the SB.

 

For as long as Allen is healthy the Bills are in the running.  That means the answer is they need to focus on hitting doubles in the draft. 

 

Think about where they'd be if Ford, Epenesa and Basham had been doubles instead of ground outs.

Those weren't ground outs...they didn't even swing and took three down the middle strikes tossed by a teeballer

[Ann]

Hmmm
 

 

[Uncle Joe]

24 minutes ago, Ann said:

Hmmm
 

 

5 boneless wings for a buck? Reported!

[Jabba The Hutt]

49 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

5 boneless wings for a buck? Reported!

Not only that, the dipping sauce pictured is ranch!

[Jabba The Hutt]

1 hour ago, Ann said:

Hmmm
 

 

Levis should be the 1st pick not sure why they'd pick anybody else

[Ann]

3 minutes ago, Jabba The Hutt said:

Levis should be the 1st pick not sure why they'd pick anybody else

I have him listed as my bust. I am not alone. 

[IDBillzFan]

1 hour ago, Uncle Joe said:

5 boneless wings for a buck? Reported!

 

Reminder: boneless chicken wings are just chicken nuggets.