Buffalo Sabres 23/24 Season Official Thread

[snafu]

Styles make fights.

Philly knew enough to slow the game down and muck it up. If they had a decent goaltender they’d have won both games.

 

Toronto let the Sabres skate all night and that was a mistake on their part.

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

Sabers-Jets is 0-0, until I tune in.  Now it's 3-1 Winnipeg.

 

I'm just waiting for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to get called for an intentional grounding penalty or something, because the universe is just determined to not let me enjoy any sports this year. 

[Cinga]

Benson's first NHL goal is sick! 

 

 

[Chandemonium]

1 hour ago, Cinga said:

Benson's first NHL goal is sick! 

 

 

It was a great goal, the kind I would’ve loved to hear RJ call. 

[KD in CA]

Terrific third period comeback.  Even better to do it against Pittsburgh.

[CarpetCrawler]

On 11/17/2023 at 9:31 PM, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

Sabers-Jets is 0-0, until I tune in.  Now it's 3-1 Winnipeg.

 

I'm just waiting for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to get called for an intentional grounding penalty or something, because the universe is just determined to not let me enjoy any sports this year. 

 

Seems to happen when I watch them too. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

Woman doing the anthem in the Sabres-Devils game is approaching Enrico Pallazzo levels of &#%$ing up the lyrics. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

7-2 Devils with plenty of time left in the 3rd.  I think the Sabers are being outscored something like 31-7 in games I've watched. 

[snafu]

Just my luck, I have tickets for tonight's game.

After watching the Devils trounce the Sabres on Saturday, and then the Bill lose on OT to Philthy, I don't know how much more I can take in a three day period.

 

I'm hoping that the NYR take the Sabres lightly and we can steal two points.

 

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, snafu said:

Just my luck, I have tickets for tonight's game.

After watching the Devils trounce the Sabres on Saturday, and then the Bill lose on OT to Philthy, I don't know how much more I can take in a three day period.

 

I'm hoping that the NYR take the Sabres lightly and we can steal two points.

 

 

Hope you actually used the tix.

 

That was their best game of the year.

[snafu]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

Hope you actually used the tix.

 

That was their best game of the year.

 

Oh I used the tickets.  That game felt good!

 

After the third goal (Tuch) I asked all the Rangers fans around me why they didn’t play that cool Goal song? So I started singing it.

 

 

 

[B-Man]

Geez, they break your heart with two losses by one goal at home,

 

and they go and win in Boston.

 

🤔

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

On 12/8/2023 at 10:41 AM, B-Man said:

Geez, they break your heart with two losses by one goal at home,

 

and they go and win in Boston.

 

🤔

 

Well, I didn't watch the Boston game.

 

I'm watching tonight.  Sabers should give up five goals.

[snafu]

20 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Well, I didn't watch the Boston game.

 

I'm watching tonight.  Sabers should give up five goals.

Did you eat pancakes?

 

[Taro T]

On 12/9/2023 at 6:37 PM, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Well, I didn't watch the Boston game.

 

I'm watching tonight.  Sabers should give up five goals.

 

STOP WATCHING THE GAMES!  Please.  

[KD in CA]

On 12/9/2023 at 3:37 PM, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Well, I didn't watch the Boston game.

 

I'm watching tonight.  Sabers should give up five goals.

3 in the first 15 minutes.  🤦‍♂️

 

This team gets off to slower starts than the jet-lagged Bills playing in London. 

 

Maybe they should have McDermott coach this team.

[B-Man]

My three siblings out in Las Vegas were teasing quite a bit before last nights game.

 

(Won 5-2 by the Sabres)

 

Not so much now.

 

.

[ComradeKayAdams]

Strange team! The Sabres have now defeated Vegas, Colorado, Boston, Toronto, and the Rangers…yet they are somehow unable to string together consecutive wins. I suppose the inconsistency is a consequence of being the youngest team in the league?

 

Let’s quantify the state of the season. With a record of 13-15-3 after 31 games, the Sabres have 29 points and an earned points percentage of 46.8%. The playoff boundary for the Eastern Conference is currently at 34 points and a 58.6% earned points percentage. The recent historical standard for the conference playoff boundary is in the range of 92 points (56.1%) to 100 points (61%).

 

Earned points percentage, as we all probably know, is the more relevant metric during the season due to disparities in games played. So while the 5 points behind the second conference wildcard spot doesn’t initially sound too bad, Buffalo has also played more games than just about everyone else.

 

The Sabres would have to win their next 7 games in a row just to get back to that lowest historical playoff boundary pace, giving them a record of 20-15-3 (which would likely coincide with the time Quinn finally returns from his Achilles tendon injury). Obviously, this would be an unlikely win streak for this team…

 

A key season checkpoint is the trade deadline on March 8, following the 64th game. Buffalo would have to be something like 35-26-3 (57%) at that point to meet the lowest historical playoff boundary pace. This equates to a 22-11-0 (66.7%) pace over the next 33 games, which is exactly a win-2-out-of-3 pace that only the top 6 NHL teams are currently maintaining.

 

By season’s end, the Sabres need to be something like 45-34-3 (57%) at the minimum to qualify for the playoffs. This would mean a 32-19-0 (62.7%) performance from here on out, which is doable for a playoff-caliber team but still unlikely given the season performances to date. So far, the Sabres only have a single two-game win streak to their credit while having one two-game losing streak, one three-game losing streak, and one four-game losing streak.

 

I haven’t put much thought into how exactly the Sabres can get back on track to make the playoffs. I’m not quite at the point of advocating for large-scale organizational changes like firing the head coach or GM, trading away core players, or running Terry Pegula out of town. Here are a few ideas that start out small:

 

1. Hire a qualified assistant coach who can help with teaching defensive structure and help coordinate the power play.

2. Promote a transition in leadership away from Okposo and toward Tuch, Dahlin, and Cozens.

3. Trade for a veteran backup goalie to pair with Levi.

4. Trade for a physical, two-way, bottom-six veteran center who can win faceoffs.

5. Trade for another physical, two-way, bottom-six forward who can defend our players in fights.

6. Get healthy (Quinn, Girgensons, Greenway, Skinner)!

 

We have more than enough cap space to make #3-5 happen. I would make these changes as soon as possible and try to shake up this losing culture before it ossifies with our new core of players. Their habit of losing at home and beginning games so poorly should be completely unacceptable.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

Strange team! The Sabres have now defeated Vegas, Colorado, Boston, Toronto, and the Rangers…yet they are somehow unable to string together consecutive wins. I suppose the inconsistency is a consequence of being the youngest team in the league?

 

Let’s quantify the state of the season. With a record of 13-15-3 after 31 games, the Sabres have 29 points and an earned points percentage of 46.8%. The playoff boundary for the Eastern Conference is currently at 34 points and a 58.6% earned points percentage. The recent historical standard for the conference playoff boundary is in the range of 92 points (56.1%) to 100 points (61%).

 

Earned points percentage, as we all probably know, is the more relevant metric during the season due to disparities in games played. So while the 5 points behind the second conference wildcard spot doesn’t initially sound too bad, Buffalo has also played more games than just about everyone else.

 

The Sabres would have to win their next 7 games in a row just to get back to that lowest historical playoff boundary pace, giving them a record of 20-15-3 (which would likely coincide with the time Quinn finally returns from his Achilles tendon injury). Obviously, this would be an unlikely win streak for this team…

 

A key season checkpoint is the trade deadline on March 8, following the 64th game. Buffalo would have to be something like 35-26-3 (57%) at that point to meet the lowest historical playoff boundary pace. This equates to a 22-11-0 (66.7%) pace over the next 33 games, which is exactly a win-2-out-of-3 pace that only the top 6 NHL teams are currently maintaining.

 

By season’s end, the Sabres need to be something like 45-34-3 (57%) at the minimum to qualify for the playoffs. This would mean a 32-19-0 (62.7%) performance from here on out, which is doable for a playoff-caliber team but still unlikely given the season performances to date. So far, the Sabres only have a single two-game win streak to their credit while having one two-game losing streak, one three-game losing streak, and one four-game losing streak.

 

I haven’t put much thought into how exactly the Sabres can get back on track to make the playoffs. I’m not quite at the point of advocating for large-scale organizational changes like firing the head coach or GM, trading away core players, or running Terry Pegula out of town. Here are a few ideas that start out small:

 

1. Hire a qualified assistant coach who can help with teaching defensive structure and help coordinate the power play.

2. Promote a transition in leadership away from Okposo and toward Tuch, Dahlin, and Cozens.

3. Trade for a veteran backup goalie to pair with Levi.

4. Trade for a physical, two-way, bottom-six veteran center who can win faceoffs.

5. Trade for another physical, two-way, bottom-six forward who can defend our players in fights.

6. Get healthy (Quinn, Girgensons, Greenway, Skinner)!

 

We have more than enough cap space to make #3-5 happen. I would make these changes as soon as possible and try to shake up this losing culture before it ossifies with our new core of players. Their habit of losing at home and beginning games so poorly should be completely unacceptable.

 

Some decent thoughts, but 1 is NOT happening this season. 

 

Really doubt 2 happens as that transition will happen this off-season.  This IS Okposo's last season (can't see any way he's back next year) and very well could be Girgensons last year in Buffalo.  Somebody else will wear the C next year, but unless he's injured Okposo IS the captain.  (And personally believe this year has a '89 Bills vibe in some ways - no not the bickering but in that it SHOULD'VE been Kelly's and Smith's and the rest of those guys team but it was Devlin and Smerlas' team.)

 

3 might happen.  (They did trade for Robinson a 4th line W; so they might make a move like that, but if they do it will still be underwhelming (though it might work).)

 

4 absolutely won't happen.  Levi and UPL are the goalies next year barring something truly unforseen and if they bring in a vet they'll either have to send the guy that currently is (and probably should be all things equal) their best goalie down to the Amerks or they'll lose UPL to waivers or would have to trade him.  They aren't bringing in a vet and keeping the 3 headed goalie monster.  THOUGHT Adams would bring in a vet in the off-season but he said the price was too high for guys he didn't see significant separation from what they had and he stood pat.

 

Regarding 5, well he brought in Stillman, Erik Johnson, and Clifton since the last trade deadline plus Ryan Johnson is playing like he should not come out of the lineup which already leaves them with 7 D they trust (though both EJ and Samuelsson have been disappointing this year and Power seems to be in the proverbial sophomore slump).  Considering Adams already brought 3 middling guys in and was rebuffed on Chychrun and apparently was rebuffed by Pesce (NMC's are NOT kind to teams that have missed the playoffs a dozen consecutive years).

 

With 6, they're very close there.  Though Thompson is still affected by the wrist injury and personally believe Samuelsson and Tuch are battling nagging injuries (and Dahlin may be dealing w/ a bad back too).  Hockey teams are never fully healthy even when they are.

 

Personally believe the things that are most likely to happen to get them going are:

 

1.  Levi plays like he was expected to by management.  He didn't out of the gate.  But after his injury against Calgary he's played better and he's played VERY well since coming back up from his brief demotion.  5-1-2 since the Calgary game and 3-0-1 with a 1.79 GAA and close to 0.94 SV% since the recall.  AND they also need UPL to play the way he was his 1st 3 or so games.  The current version of UPL isn't helping at all, but he could come back.

 

2.  The team actully fully figures out the new more defensive system they've been implementing with limited success this season.  When the goalie plays well, they tend to be able to get the handle on the new system.  But it definitely isn't 2nd nature yet.  If it could get to 2nd nature, they'd likely be improved.

 

3.  Get a PP working.  In the Avs game, they didn't JUST try to feed Thompson 1 timers; they had guys moving and were working the puck low some.  They need to keep doing that.  They also are going to be trying Benson and Peterka on the top unit with Skinner out.  Tuch moving low to Skinner's spot, Benson to the bumper, and Peterka on the boards opposite Thompson.  All of those should make the PP better.  No idea whether Matt Ellis is up to the challenge of making it not just better, but good.  (Doubt it, but hope he is.)

 

4.  Win ####ing games at home.  They were under 0.500 there last year and are 1 game below again.  They should be at ~0.750 at home.  Get there, keep playing at 0.500 on the road and 0.600 is a given.

 

Do those and the team can reach the 0.600 that pretty much guarantees playoffs.  (Only 1 team in the modern era, the 1970 Habs has EVER missed the playoffs while reaching that threshold.  Pretty much 99 points guarantees an invite to the dance with an 82 game schedule.  Teams can get in with fewer points (92 was good enough last year in the east) but they're relying on a lot of luck the further below 99 they are.

 

Only 51 games left, so it's getting to be a tough slog, but it isn't at the point where they need a miracle to avoid a 13th straight playoffless year.

[snafu]

Sabres 100% dominating the second period and then give up the cheapest of goals.