Bills Rooting Interests, Week 18 2023 [Page 9]

[Shady]

https://www.nfl.com/news/the-first-read-one-reason-for-hope-for-nine-bubble-teams-still-in-nfl-playoff-hu
 

Reason for Hope: They’re rolling. The Bills have become the scariest team in the AFC -- and you can make a case that they’re probably top three in the NFL right now.

 

That’s how well they’re playing these days. They just crushed Dallas with quarterback Josh Allen throwing for all of 94 yards. They went into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs two Sundays ago and they were within a missed throw from Allen to wide receiver Gabe Davis of taking out Philadelphia in overtime one game prior.
(Aided by the refs)

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

Obviously winning out is preferred, but the wildcard is pretty treacherous if you assume they finish 10-7.

 

Any loss for Denver is key.

Cleveland beating Houston next week is key.

Cincy losing 2 of 3 against Pitts/KC/Cleveland is key.

 

Titans blowing that game yesterday hurts.

 

Tennessee and Chicago both blowing what should've been unlikely losses both hurt.

[KD in CA]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

Tennessee and Chicago both blowing what should've been unlikely losses both hurt.

And Minnesota….I almost forgot that disaster.  Bills got zero help this weekend.

[B-Man]

On 12/18/2023 at 10:07 PM, KD in CA said:

Bills got zero help this weekend.

 

Let's hope for better this week.

 

 

For Cut & paste

 

NO @ LAR 

CIN @ PIT

BUF @ LAC

WSH @ NYJ
SEA @ TN
CLE @ HOU

JAX @ TB
DET @ MIN
GB @ CAR
IND @ ATL
AZ @ CHI

 NE @ DEN 

DAL @ MIA  

LV @ KC 
 NYG @ PHI
BAL @ SF

 

 

 

NO @ LAR                       No opinion

CIN @ PIT                     Steelers

BUF @ LAC                   BILLS

WSH @ NYJ                      Worse draft position
SEA @ TN                     Payback for Houston loss
CLE @ HOU                  Get Wildcard spot first

JAX @ TB                          C'mon Baker
DET @ MIN                    No opinion
GB @ CAR                        "  "
IND @ ATL                          Fly Falcons Fly
AZ @ CHI                        No opinion

 NE @ DEN                      Go Pats
 LV@ KC                        Fairy tales can come true
 NYG @ PHI                   Giants, just because
BAL @ SF                           Super Bowl ?    49'ers

DAL @ MIA                   Go Boys!  (thanks Devnull)

 

 

.

 

 

.

[Foxx]

This works for me

Image:

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

This works for me

Image:

 

The heck with that.  Let KC lose to Vegas or the Bolts and then the Bills have the 2 seed and rehost the Donkeys.  Ain't gonna be no 12 men on the field in that one.  Guar-an-damn-tee it.

 

Would also force KC to travel to Buffalo should they both make it to either  the 2nd or 3rd round (depending upon whether the Crows choke in their opener or not).

[snafu]

2 hours ago, Foxx said:

This works for me

Image:

 

 

The second best part about that would be that the Fish are completely out.

 

 

 

[Foxx]

2 hours ago, snafu said:

 

 

The second best part about that would be that the Fish are completely out.

 

 

 

I think the way you get that result is that the phishies lose out.

[devnull]

NO @ LAR: meh

CIN @ PIT:  Obviously

BUF @ LAC: Obviously

WSH @ NYJ: Helps strength of schedule
SEA @ TN: Titans loss lowers Jax, Houston, and Indy's strength of schedule
CLE @ HOU:  A loss by either helps however a win by either hurts.  But easier to catch the Texans

JAX @ TB: Jax holds tiebreakers over us
DET @ MIN: meh
GB @ CAR: meh
IND @ ATL: Obviously
AZ @ CHI: meh

 NE @ DEN: Nope, can't do it
 LV @ KC: Obviously 
 NYG @ PHI: Strength of schedule

BAL @ SF: Brock Purdy

 

 

And @B-Man left a game off the list...

 

DAL @ MIA  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by devnull

[Ann]

 

 

[ComradeKayAdams]

I’ve been experimenting with the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator today. It shows the following playoff chances for the Bills:

 

11-6: 99+%

10-7 with loss to Chargers: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Patriots: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Dolphins: ~60%

9-8 with win against Chargers: ~1%

9-8 with win against Patriots: ~1%

9-8 with win against Dolphins: ~1%

8-9: 0%

 

The singular scenario for the Bills to finish 11-6 and still miss the playoffs is where the Dolphins win their week 16 and week 17 games, the Bengals win out, the Browns win their week 16 and week 17 games (but lose to the Bengals in week 18), the Jaguars win out, and the Colts win out. So that’s a total of 13 games that would all have to not fall our way…

 

Let’s focus on the 10-7 playoff path with a week 18 loss to the Dolphins. This path has been made difficult by the fact that the Bills pretty much lose all tiebreaker scenarios. When you concede a playoff spot to the Chiefs, the Bills need at least 4** of the following 7 scenarios to break their way (I capitalized the games where the 7 teams of interest play each other):

 

1. Steelers lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (BENGALS, at Seahawks, at Ravens).

2. Broncos lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders).

3. Bengals lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at STEELERS, at Chiefs, BROWNS).

4. Texans lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (BROWNS, Titans, at COLTS).

5. Colts lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Falcons, Raiders, TEXANS).

6. Jaguars lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans).

7. Browns lose all 3 remaining games (at TEXANS, Jets, at BENGALS).

 

I ranked these 7 scenarios from what I think are most likely to least likely. Note that we do see scenarios where the Bills can clinch the playoffs by the end of week 17. There’s a reasonable chance that our week 18 game against the Dolphins gets flexed to Sunday night, so we may definitively know by kickoff whether or not the Bills are playing a single-elimination game.

 

** - If exactly 4 break our way, then at least 1 of the 3 not breaking our way must be an AFC South team.

[Fansince88]

51 minutes ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

I’ve been experimenting with the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator today. It shows the following playoff chances for the Bills:

 

11-6: 99+%

10-7 with loss to Chargers: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Patriots: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Dolphins: ~60%

9-8 with win against Chargers: ~1%

9-8 with win against Patriots: ~1%

9-8 with win against Dolphins: ~1%

8-9: 0%

 

The singular scenario for the Bills to finish 11-6 and still miss the playoffs is where the Dolphins win their week 16 and week 17 games, the Bengals win out, the Browns win their week 16 and week 17 games (but lose to the Bengals in week 18), the Jaguars win out, and the Colts win out. So that’s a total of 13 games that would all have to not fall our way…

 

Let’s focus on the 10-7 playoff path with a week 18 loss to the Dolphins. This path has been made difficult by the fact that the Bills pretty much lose all tiebreaker scenarios. When you concede a playoff spot to the Chiefs, the Bills need at least 4** of the following 7 scenarios to break their way (I capitalized the games where the 7 teams of interest play each other):

 

1. Steelers lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (BENGALS, at Seahawks, at Ravens).

2. Broncos lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders).

3. Bengals lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at STEELERS, at Chiefs, BROWNS).

4. Texans lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (BROWNS, Titans, at COLTS).

5. Colts lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Falcons, Raiders, TEXANS).

6. Jaguars lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans).

7. Browns lose all 3 remaining games (at TEXANS, Jets, at BENGALS).

 

I ranked these 7 scenarios from what I think are most likely to least likely. Note that we do see scenarios where the Bills can clinch the playoffs by the end of week 17. There’s a reasonable chance that our week 18 game against the Dolphins gets flexed to Sunday night, so we may definitively know by kickoff whether or not the Bills are playing a single-elimination game.

 

** - If exactly 4 break our way, then at least 1 of the 3 not breaking our way must be an AFC South team.

My attitude.....Win out and see what happens. Fins loose one this or next week and GO GET THE AFCE TITLE!

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

I’ve been experimenting with the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator today. It shows the following playoff chances for the Bills:

 

11-6: 99+%

10-7 with loss to Chargers: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Patriots: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Dolphins: ~60%

9-8 with win against Chargers: ~1%

9-8 with win against Patriots: ~1%

9-8 with win against Dolphins: ~1%

8-9: 0%

 

The singular scenario for the Bills to finish 11-6 and still miss the playoffs is where the Dolphins win their week 16 and week 17 games, the Bengals win out, the Browns win their week 16 and week 17 games (but lose to the Bengals in week 18), the Jaguars win out, and the Colts win out. So that’s a total of 13 games that would all have to not fall our way…

 

Let’s focus on the 10-7 playoff path with a week 18 loss to the Dolphins. This path has been made difficult by the fact that the Bills pretty much lose all tiebreaker scenarios. When you concede a playoff spot to the Chiefs, the Bills need at least 4** of the following 7 scenarios to break their way (I capitalized the games where the 7 teams of interest play each other):

 

1. Steelers lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (BENGALS, at Seahawks, at Ravens).

2. Broncos lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders).

3. Bengals lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at STEELERS, at Chiefs, BROWNS).

4. Texans lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (BROWNS, Titans, at COLTS).

5. Colts lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Falcons, Raiders, TEXANS).

6. Jaguars lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans).

7. Browns lose all 3 remaining games (at TEXANS, Jets, at BENGALS).

 

I ranked these 7 scenarios from what I think are most likely to least likely. Note that we do see scenarios where the Bills can clinch the playoffs by the end of week 17. There’s a reasonable chance that our week 18 game against the Dolphins gets flexed to Sunday night, so we may definitively know by kickoff whether or not the Bills are playing a single-elimination game.

 

** - If exactly 4 break our way, then at least 1 of the 3 not breaking our way must be an AFC South team.

 

Simplest and best outcome is Bills win out, Fishies lose this week &/or next week, Chefs lose at least 1 game, and Jags & winner of the Indy/Houston game both lose at least 1, so the Bills would have the 2 seed regardless of what any of the other teams do.

 

Bills CAN get to the same record as the Crows, but must have a worse record with common opponents because have been told the Bills can't get the #1 seed overall.

[Ann]

 

 

https://twitter.com/Matt_Bove/status/1738899479992864771

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, Ann said:

 

 

https://twitter.com/Matt_Bove/status/1738899479992864771

I can easily see 4 of the 6. Not too sure about the *Patriots or Raiders. 

[snafu]

21 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

I’ve been experimenting with the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator today. It shows the following playoff chances for the Bills:

 

11-6: 99+%

10-7 with loss to Chargers: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Patriots: ~70%

10-7 with loss to Dolphins: ~60%

9-8 with win against Chargers: ~1%

9-8 with win against Patriots: ~1%

9-8 with win against Dolphins: ~1%

8-9: 0%

 

The singular scenario for the Bills to finish 11-6 and still miss the playoffs is where the Dolphins win their week 16 and week 17 games, the Bengals win out, the Browns win their week 16 and week 17 games (but lose to the Bengals in week 18), the Jaguars win out, and the Colts win out. So that’s a total of 13 games that would all have to not fall our way…

 

Let’s focus on the 10-7 playoff path with a week 18 loss to the Dolphins. This path has been made difficult by the fact that the Bills pretty much lose all tiebreaker scenarios. When you concede a playoff spot to the Chiefs, the Bills need at least 4** of the following 7 scenarios to break their way (I capitalized the games where the 7 teams of interest play each other):

 

1. Steelers lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (BENGALS, at Seahawks, at Ravens).

2. Broncos lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games (Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders).

3. Bengals lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at STEELERS, at Chiefs, BROWNS).

4. Texans lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (BROWNS, Titans, at COLTS).

5. Colts lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Falcons, Raiders, TEXANS).

6. Jaguars lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games (at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans).

7. Browns lose all 3 remaining games (at TEXANS, Jets, at BENGALS).

 

I ranked these 7 scenarios from what I think are most likely to least likely. Note that we do see scenarios where the Bills can clinch the playoffs by the end of week 17. There’s a reasonable chance that our week 18 game against the Dolphins gets flexed to Sunday night, so we may definitively know by kickoff whether or not the Bills are playing a single-elimination game.

 

** - If exactly 4 break our way, then at least 1 of the 3 not breaking our way must be an AFC South team.

 

Feels like only 1, 3, 4 are “likely”. Maybe 2 if Denver gets bit by a division foe.

 

Each game feels like single elimination.  Bills just gotta win them all.

 

 

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

4 hours ago, Ann said:

 

 

https://twitter.com/Matt_Bove/status/1738899479992864771

 

I'll root for the sweet release of death before I root for the Patriots.

[Ann]

 

 

[Nanker]

21 hours ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

I'll root for the sweet release of death before I root for the Patriots.

Me too. But I fell asleep early watching Reacher and woke up this Christmas morning to the sweet news that the Denver creamsicles lost. 

[Ann]

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/KevinMassare/status/1739517298103185548