2021 Cap Decrease + Possible Consequences [Cap is set at $182.5M]

[Doc Brown]

Tasker called Brown's release a "covid tragedy" on OBL today.  LOL.

 

 

There's part of me that's glad this happens because navigating around this unexpected salary cap decrease will further separate the good and poor GM's even further.  

[Spartacus]

On 3/10/2021 at 1:35 PM, Spartacus said:

sounds like the NFLPA is being overly optimistic and misleading their members about sky rocketing cap numbers.

As Smith notes, based on reality, the cap for 2021 should have been tens of millions below 182m. with no fans in the stands, that number is likely between 45 -60 million less. From the link above & below,  the NFL borrowed $1.4 bil which sets the floor on how much the league subsidized the cap for 2021. Th owners have agreed to spread the recovery of the fronted money over 3 years. This would mean a reduction is the annual salary cap calc of 15-20 mil each year 

 

Unfortunately, the mega-billions from new TV contracts don't kick in until 2022 for ABC/ESPN and 2023 for the other networks.

 

so if the league returned to 2019 revenue levels with full stadiums, the cap of 198.2 mil from 2020 would have to be reduced some  amount the 45mil-67 mil owner advance payment.

 

Big increases in cap likely won't happen until 2024 with full impact of new TV deals driving revenue in 2023.

 

 

 

From the cited tweet:

@TomPelissero

As Smith noted here, NFL players were the only ones in American major pro sports to get full salaries in 2020 amidst the COVID pandemic. But that meant, in essence, taking a ~$1.4 billion loan in a revenue-sharing system, and owners will recoup that money over the next few years.

The $4 bil reduction in revenue supports the high end of lost salary cap that I estimated above  

(4 bil / 32 teams * 50% player split = 62.5 mil   what the salary cap should have gone down in 2021)

 

since about 15 mil was recovered in 2021 with cap at 182.5, remaining 47 mil needs to reduce cap numbers over the next 3 years.

 

Unfortunately, the mega-billions from new TV contracts don't kick in until 2022 for ABC/ESPN and 2023 for the other networks.

Big increases in cap likely won't happen until 2024 with full impact of new TV deals driving revenue in 2023.

Likely there will not be big increase in cap for 2022 

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/11/nfl-revenue-drops-from-16-billion-to-12-billion-in-2020/

According to Ben Fischer of Sports Business Journal, the league saw its revenue fall from $16 billion in 2019 to $12 billion in 2020. The league had expected to generate $16.5 billion last year, before the pandemic changed everything.

[Ann]

Still more chopping and renegotiating to come

 

 

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/spotrac/status/1372279413623128068

 

[Ann]

cbssports guy:



 

[Foxx]

17 hours ago, Ann said:

cbssports guy:



 

Potentially frees up $15mm for this years cap if they do?

[Ann]

At today's presser:

 

 

[Ann]

Long thread
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

grrrrr I swore I counted correctly. Oh well.
 

 

[Ann]

Beane creating some wiggle room.

 

[Ann]

 

https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1374709461978378245

[B-Man]

1 hour ago, Ann said:

Beane creating some wiggle room.

 

 

 

[Koko]

19 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

[IDBillzFan]

Question for those of you who enjoy the salary cap part of this sport:

 

I love the people this team is bringing in, but from a continuity standpoint, I'm not a fan of the 1-year deals that are so prevalent. Is the general sense in the NFL that MOST EVERYONE is doing these 1-year deals simply to get through this one season with a reduced cap?

 

It would have been great to sign someone like Emmanuel Sanders to a multi-year deal, for example. Am I just watching a crap ton of placeholders meant to be a vehicle to get everyone back to normal when the stadiums are filled?

[Hedge]

9 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

Question for those of you who enjoy the salary cap part of this sport:

 

I love the people this team is bringing in, but from a continuity standpoint, I'm not a fan of the 1-year deals that are so prevalent. Is the general sense in the NFL that MOST EVERYONE is doing these 1-year deals simply to get through this one season with a reduced cap?

 

It would have been great to sign someone like Emmanuel Sanders to a multi-year deal, for example. Am I just watching a crap ton of placeholders meant to be a vehicle to get everyone back to normal when the stadiums are filled?

 

I can't say it's an aspect I enjoy, or even understand all the dynamics of, but from everything that I have been reading, the answers to your questions are a resounding "Yes!", from the perspectives of both teams and players. Most teams are feeing the bite of a reduced cap and available players don't want to get locked in to multi-year deals when they know their slice of the pie will be larger next season.

[SabreKV]

49 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

Question for those of you who enjoy the salary cap part of this sport:

 

I love the people this team is bringing in, but from a continuity standpoint, I'm not a fan of the 1-year deals that are so prevalent. Is the general sense in the NFL that MOST EVERYONE is doing these 1-year deals simply to get through this one season with a reduced cap?

 

It would have been great to sign someone like Emmanuel Sanders to a multi-year deal, for example. Am I just watching a crap ton of placeholders meant to be a vehicle to get everyone back to normal when the stadiums are filled?

I think one of the things you are seeing with the latest Beane moves has to do with a cap credit they get when signing veteran players for one year deals at league minimum(ish). There is a loophole that lets veterans at say, 1.1 or 1.2m only count about 800k against the cap. Not a huge savings, but do it a few times and it adds up to a chunk. 

[Spartacus]

2 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

Question for those of you who enjoy the salary cap part of this sport:

 

I love the people this team is bringing in, but from a continuity standpoint, I'm not a fan of the 1-year deals that are so prevalent. Is the general sense in the NFL that MOST EVERYONE is doing these 1-year deals simply to get through this one season with a reduced cap?

 

It would have been great to sign someone like Emmanuel Sanders to a multi-year deal, for example. Am I just watching a crap ton of placeholders meant to be a vehicle to get everyone back to normal when the stadiums are filled?

for all those concerned with comp picks, expiring 1 yr deals will help greatly going forward. 

jack up the free agents lost over free agents signed

[Foxx]

This is interesting. I wonder why the change.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1379118033860448256

 

[Koko]

3 hours ago, Foxx said:

This is interesting. I wonder why the change.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1379118033860448256

 

 

Only thing I can think of is so that players aren't so reckless with their money, and get paid through some of the pre/off season.

[Ann]

 

Buffalo starts on page six (6):
 

NFL Management Council
Pro Forma Calculation Of Eliminated 2020 Performance Based Pay Benefit
Sorted by Club, PBP Calculated Amount (High to Low
 

Notes:

Paragraph 1.a. of the NFL-NFLPA Side Letter Agreement dated August 3, 2020 (COVID/AR-Related Issues), provides that, for any year when Benefits are eliminated or reduced, the NFL shall use reasonable efforts to maintain data, to the extent applicable regarding which players would have qualified for such Benefits, and the amounts, as though the Benefits would have been paid.  
 

This report displays rounded values; calculation uses actual values
Calculations based off of $8,500,000 Per Club

 

[Ann]

 

 

https://twitter.com/BuffaloBills/status/1379578415674765317