it's the economy

[Foxx]

7 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

Canadian banks have taken larger than expected write downs on expected bad debt and the results have not been as bad as expected.  I’m assuming American banks have done the same. 

 

 

Have the Canadian ARM's come down any?

[Nouseforaname]

3 hours ago, Foxx said:

Have the Canadian ARM's come down any?

Rates are hovering around 5-6%.  Pain for a lot of variable rate holders.  I’m a fixed rate holder so I have to hope that things get under control before 2026.

[RochesterRob]

10 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

You will not see the repercussions until investors lose faith in the American economy and park their money elsewhere.

 

But where? Europe ? BRICS? 

 

None of these have the track record, innovation and ability to adapt to change than the American economy and until that changes (and it’s not happening anytime soon), the house of cards will not fall.

 

Even with a clueless leader like Biden in charge, it’s barreling through the competition like Josh Allen on a touch down run. 

  The market might simply suffer erosion.  Generations in the past would put off short term gratification in order to buy stocks.  That's not the mentality today.  Also, today a larger cross section has little in the way in discretionary income.  Recent inflation being a definite problem.  

[Jauronimo]

19 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  The market might simply suffer erosion.  Generations in the past would put off short term gratification in order to buy stocks.  That's not the mentality today.  Also, today a larger cross section has little in the way in discretionary income.  Recent inflation being a definite problem.  

Equity markets are not and have never been dependent on buying action from the lower class.  The market does not care if its Blackrock or Lil Joe Twelve Pack buying stocks.  Income equality has been a net positive for equities if anything.  Lower class and middle class Americans sink most of their net worth in housing.  They have less trust for equities and favor tangible assets.  The upper class invests heavily in equities and alts.

[RochesterRob]

  Plenty of non-elites have invested in the financial markets although I would suspect that the percentage is down in the most recent generation or two.  My deceased FIL was a blue collar lifer at Xerox and by the time he retired he had stocks valued at over 900,000 dollars.  My neighbor up the road who died almost 20 years ago was worth over 4 million dollars having bought rising stocks during the 1950's and 1960's.  He never flashed his wealth with the newest vehicle being a 1978 Ford 150 pickup truck.  He cooked on a pot belly stove.  My maternal grandmother invested the "egg money" in ATT, Eastman Kodak, and other top stocks back during the 1950''s, 1960's, and 1970's.  She was never a millionaire but did quite well in supporting herself after grandpa passed in 1969.  Lived in a ranch house in her retirement years and the newest car she had was a '65 Ford Galaxie.  The point is for many years there were lots of investors who did not own a luxury car nor a mansion.  Most of the people who did buy a luxury car or a mansion had a fairly simple start in life.  The equity markets of today most likely do not depend on the lower classes but that certainly was not always true not that many years ago.  

[Ann]

Bidenflation Peaks At 17.3%, Hurting Americans
Americans continue to feel the pain of inflation amidst stagnant wage growth and high interest rates.

* Bidenflation at 17.3% erodes Americans’ purchasing power
* Annualized Bidenflation hits 5.9%, nearly double the CPI
* Core prices are stubborn at 3.9%
* Real wages lag by 2.0% since Biden took office

 

The dark reality of Bidenomics is 17.3% inflation under the President’s watch. When he took office, inflation was at just 1.4%. Inflation has stayed above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 35 consecutive months since March 2021.

 

Average hourly earnings for all employees dropped 2.0% to $11.16 in January from $11.39 in January 2021 when Biden assumed office. Despite nominal salary increases at their fastest pace in years, 58% of Americans say they are now worse off than when the President took office.

 

</snip>

[devnull]

6 hours ago, Foxx said:

Have the Canadian ARM's come down any?

 

If somebody moved Celine Dion's arms up, they're not coming down any time soon

[Nouseforaname]

16 minutes ago, devnull said:

 

If somebody moved Celine Dion's arms up, they're not coming down any time soon

We’re responsible for Celine Dion but you guys are responsible for Travis swift.

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, Ann said:

Bidenflation Peaks At 17.3%, Hurting Americans
Americans continue to feel the pain of inflation amidst stagnant wage growth and high interest rates.

* Bidenflation at 17.3% erodes Americans’ purchasing power
* Annualized Bidenflation hits 5.9%, nearly double the CPI
* Core prices are stubborn at 3.9%
* Real wages lag by 2.0% since Biden took office

 

The dark reality of Bidenomics is 17.3% inflation under the President’s watch. When he took office, inflation was at just 1.4%. Inflation has stayed above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 35 consecutive months since March 2021.

 

Average hourly earnings for all employees dropped 2.0% to $11.16 in January from $11.39 in January 2021 when Biden assumed office. Despite nominal salary increases at their fastest pace in years, 58% of Americans say they are now worse off than when the President took office.

 

</snip>

  If you start to distinguish between industries I would bet the disparity is much greater for quite a number of people.  I doubt that those who work for Wegman's, Top's, Lowes, West Herr, and down the line got any cost of living adjustments in the last few years.  

[Gavin in Va Beach]

To those discussing the markets, I've yet to hear anyone factor the enormous advantage the markets have in getting large influxes of cash each month from millions of people having 401k withholdings from their paychecks. It seems almost every discussion ignores that fact, not just here but in most market analysis as a whole. Why? I ask legitimately, because I'm not smart enough to know all the nuances that affect the markets. But that has to have some bearing in the market being hyper-inflated, does it not? Also never discussed is how much of our collective 401k payments have enabled a very few to become grotesquely wealthy for doing very little except directing payments into certain funds.

 

I'll hang up and listen.

[RochesterRob]

22 minutes ago, Gavin in Va Beach said:

To those discussing the markets, I've yet to hear anyone factor the enormous advantage the markets have in getting large influxes of cash each month from millions of people having 401k withholdings from their paychecks. It seems almost every discussion ignores that fact, not just here but in most market analysis as a whole. Why? I ask legitimately, because I'm not smart enough to know all the nuances that affect the markets. But that has to have some bearing in the market being hyper-inflated, does it not? Also never discussed is how much of our collective 401k payments have enabled a very few to become grotesquely wealthy for doing very little except directing payments into certain funds.

 

I'll hang up and listen.

....cash each month form millions of people having 401k withholdings = investment ballon inflating without impact from dividends and/or earnings..........  Already mentioned.  Paltry return on savings account..  Already mentioned.  The only thing not mentioned to this point is velocity of money which is the rapid movement of currency through our economy.  When nobody is holding cash is it is easier to payout rising wages.  For a while it meant the government printing less money which in theory should be a check to inflation.  All learned by me decades ago while sitting in a classroom at Cornell.  Taught by Alfred Kahn of deregulating our airlines fame.  Kahn predicted back in the 1980's that the US government would in fact neuter the savings function of banks at some point in the near future in part to keep other parts of the economy healthy.  Unrelated but interesting nonetheless was another instructor who was a senior level official in the Kennedy Administration telling a class how the US was keen to food production in the East courtesy of the CIA during the 1960's.  Worth every penny to sit in those classes versus MCC, UB, or any other regional institution.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

4 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  The point is for many years there were lots of investors who did not own a luxury car nor a mansion.  

 

Most people do not want to be rich, they want to act rich.

[Nouseforaname]

55 minutes ago, Gavin in Va Beach said:

To those discussing the markets, I've yet to hear anyone factor the enormous advantage the markets have in getting large influxes of cash each month from millions of people having 401k withholdings from their paychecks. It seems almost every discussion ignores that fact, not just here but in most market analysis as a whole. Why? I ask legitimately, because I'm not smart enough to know all the nuances that affect the markets. But that has to have some bearing in the market being hyper-inflated, does it not? Also never discussed is how much of our collective 401k payments have enabled a very few to become grotesquely wealthy for doing very little except directing payments into certain funds.

 

I'll hang up and listen.

You have to put your money somewhere… 

 

And I don’t understand why they haven’t benefited the beneficiary of that 401k? I agree that fees are high but it’s better than cash.

[Nouseforaname]

9 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Most people do not want to be rich, they want to act rich.

Dress for the job you want.  Though I have never seen the point in being the richest man in the cemetery.

[RochesterRob]

7 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Most people do not want to be rich, they want to act rich.

  Then count me as being different from most people.  I want to have wealth but for the most part not flaunt it.  I once almost walked out of the local Chevy dealership because I wanted a basic pickup truck with hand crank windows, manual locks, etc.. and the salesman kept wanting to upgrade me to a higher cost truck.  

[Foxx]

3 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

We’re responsible for Celine Dion but you guys are responsible for Travis swift.

I don't think Roger Goodell counts as, "you guys."

[Nouseforaname]

Lots of Rolex watches and LV bags will fly off the shelves. 

[IDBillzFan]

1 hour ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Most people do not want  know how to be get rich, so they want to  act rich.

 

Fixed that.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

14 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

Lots of Rolex watches and LV bags will fly off the shelves. 

 

Everyone knew they'd beat.  It's less than I expected.

 

It's the guidance that really matters, though.

[Nouseforaname]

24 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Everyone knew they'd beat.  It's less than I expected.

 

It's the guidance that really matters, though.

Nvidia  ’s quarterly sales tripled from a year ago, surpassing Wall Street’s heightened expectations, and the company indicated momentum from the artificial-intelligence boom remains strong.