it's the economy

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

1 hour ago, Nouseforaname said:

I’m a nvidia shareholder but I’m a buy and hold investor. 

 

I bought NVDA around last year's low - 150 or so.  Then had to sell it around 240 to cover my wife's lost income when she was unemployed.  

 

Wish I could have held it...but holding it here is insane.  This is at best a 300/share company.

[Nouseforaname]

1 hour ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

I bought NVDA around last year's low - 150 or so.  Then had to sell it around 240 to cover my wife's lost income when she was unemployed.  

 

Wish I could have held it...but holding it here is insane.  This is at best a 300/share company.

I bought it in December. I am a little insane. 

[devnull]

2 hours ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

ARM calls yesterday morning.  Semis are horrifically overpriced (Nvidia has a market cap of some 40 times revenue?  ), but the exuberance makes for nice short-term moves.

 

I dropped $10k on ARM at $52 shortly after IPO 

[Nouseforaname]

Any posts today about how the fed dropped the ball?

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Edited February 19 by Deranged Rhino

[Nouseforaname]

6 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

So you’re taking short positions?

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

20 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

Yeah, I totally believe this furry little guy who looks vaguely like he smells of chili dogs has some profound insight into the financial machinations of billionaires and politicians.  

[Uncle Joe]

23 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Yeah, I totally believe this furry little guy who looks vaguely like he smells of chili dogs has some profound insight into the financial machinations of billionaires and politicians.  

He looks like he could be a long lost offspring of one of the Najarian brothers. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

He looks like he could be a long lost offspring of one of the Najarian brothers. 

 

He looks like a high school dropout I used to know who insisted he invented a room-temperature superconductor.

[Foxx]

6 hours ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

Yeah, I totally believe this furry little guy who looks vaguely like he smells of chili dogs has some profound insight into the financial machinations of billionaires and politicians.  

You chili dog racists are all the same.

[Nouseforaname]

45 minutes ago, Foxx said:

You chili dog racists are all the same.

Predictions of market crashes are meaningful.  I’ve seen multiple since I started my career and most or all recover .  Hell the market “crashed” 25% not long ago.  It recovered.

[Uncle Joe]

2 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

Predictions of market crashes are meaningful.  I’ve seen multiple since I started my career and most or all recover .  Hell the market “crashed” 25% not long ago.  It recovered.

 

October 1987? It was only 22.6% /s

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

Predictions of market crashes are meaningful.  I’ve seen multiple since I started my career and most or all recover .  Hell the market “crashed” 25% not long ago.  It recovered.

  Yes, however the earlier markets had to compete with substantial savings rates for the day and had to show earnings and/or pay a dividend.  The last 15 years or so has been about blowing up a balloon and assuming it will never blowout.  Investors are supposed to be more sophisticated today meaning using less emotion but I think the nerd that followed the market up might be the same herd that exits to other investments including "paltry" savings rates of maybe 5 percent.  The Feds did well to prop up various industries in the past but they never had to revive the entire elephant of the broad US economy.  I don't know that I want that much tampering and the powers that be might make the choice of the whole damn thing is too complicated so lets set interest rates for borrowers at 8.5  percent and savers 5 percent providing a safe harbor for investors. Herbert Hoover might well be vindicated for his great reluctance of broad based intervention of the US economy even if of a different time and era.  

[Foxx]

12 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

Predictions of market crashes are meaningful.  I’ve seen multiple since I started my career and most or all recover .  Hell the market “crashed” 25% not long ago.  It recovered.

No worries, I was just bustin' on @Crap Throwing Clavin.

 

Yes, we have recovered from all that I can remember, even the global 2008 crash. Which is all fine and dandy until the one we don't recover from. Honestly, I don't know how the House of Cards hasn't collapsed yet. Somehow, they keep propping it up.

 

Printing gazillions of digi-dollars doesn't seem to phase anything. Yes, we've experienced an above-normal inflation rate because of the COVID printing but it seems to be under control, somewhat. We never really saw repercussions from the QE Infinity programs, which is unfathomable to me.

 

When you have the FED, I guess anything is possible. I once thought BRICS was going to spell the end of the petro-dollar but I've since come to believe that they are too spread out to really do the damage required to tank the dollar.

I'm still doing the same though... hedging, just in case.

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

No worries, I was just bustin' on @Crap Throwing Clavin.

 

Yes, we have recovered all that I can remember, even the global 2008 crash. Which all fine and dandy until the one we don't recover from. Honestly, I don't know how the House of Cards hasn't collapsed yet. Somehow, they keep propping it up.

 

Printing gazillions of digi-dollars doesn't seem to phase anything. Yes, we've experienced an above-normal inflation rate because of the COVID printing but it seems to be under control, somewhat. We never really saw repercussions from the QE Infinity programs, which is unfathomable to me.

 

When you have the FED, I guess anything is possible. I once thought BRICS was going to spell the end of the petro-dollar but I've since come to believe that they are too spread out to really do the damage required to tank the dollar.

I'm still doing the same though... hedging, just in case.

  Personal debts are up and the number of late payments and default on consumer debt has been on the increase.  All is not well.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

1 hour ago, Nouseforaname said:

Predictions of market crashes are meaningful.  I’ve seen multiple since I started my career and most or all recover .  Hell the market “crashed” 25% not long ago.  It recovered.

 

There's always a crash, and there's always a recovery.

 

There's still a market for tulip bulbs, after all.  There just isn't speculation in them.

 

(Semis and AI are today's tulip bulbs.)

[Nouseforaname]

4 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Yes, however the earlier markets had to compete with substantial savings rates for the day and had to show earnings and/or pay a dividend.  The last 15 years or so has been about blowing up a balloon and assuming it will never blowout.  Investors are supposed to be more sophisticated today meaning using less emotion but I think the nerd that followed the market up might be the same herd that exits to other investments including "paltry" savings rates of maybe 5 percent.  The Feds did well to prop up various industries in the past but they never had to revive the entire elephant of the broad US economy.  I don't know that I want that much tampering and the powers that be might make the choice of the whole damn thing is too complicated so lets set interest rates for borrowers at 8.5  percent and savers 5 percent providing a safe harbor for investors. Herbert Hoover might well be vindicated for his great reluctance of broad based intervention of the US economy even if of a different time and era.  

I constantly hear about how money printing has created asset bubbles but much of the world has been in tightening and earnings are still up.  Yes, price to earnings is inflated but the overall trajectory of the American economy has been strong. 
 

The reality is that you will see a strong correction at one point when an unknown factor will create panic. Price to earnings ratios will drop to more manageable levels and the cash rich investors will snatch up the cheaper but relatively strong assets.

[Nouseforaname]

3 hours ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

There's always a crash, and there's always a recovery.

 

There's still a market for tulip bulbs, after all.  There just isn't speculation in them.

 

(Semis and AI are today's tulip bulbs.)

And if you remain diversified, you’ll live through the crash and buy before the recovery.  

[Nouseforaname]

4 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Personal debts are up and the number of late payments and default on consumer debt has been on the increase.  All is not well.

Canadian banks have taken larger than expected write downs on expected bad debt and the results have not been as bad as expected.  I’m assuming American banks have done the same. 

 

 

[Nouseforaname]

5 hours ago, Foxx said:

No worries, I was just bustin' on @Crap Throwing Clavin.

 

Yes, we have recovered all that I can remember, even the global 2008 crash. Which all fine and dandy until the one we don't recover from. Honestly, I don't know how the House of Cards hasn't collapsed yet. Somehow, they keep propping it up.

 

Printing gazillions of digi-dollars doesn't seem to phase anything. Yes, we've experienced an above-normal inflation rate because of the COVID printing but it seems to be under control, somewhat. We never really saw repercussions from the QE Infinity programs, which is unfathomable to me.

 

When you have the FED, I guess anything is possible. I once thought BRICS was going to spell the end of the petro-dollar but I've since come to believe that they are too spread out to really do the damage required to tank the dollar.

I'm still doing the same though... hedging, just in case.

You will not see the repercussions until investors lose faith in the American economy and park their money elsewhere.

 

But where? Europe ? BRICS? 

 

None of these have the track record, innovation and ability to adapt to change than the American economy and until that changes (and it’s not happening anytime soon), the house of cards will not fall.

 

Even with a clueless leader like Biden in charge, it’s barreling through the competition like Josh Allen on a touch down run.