Bills Tidbits

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

48 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

 

Really, though...

 

Anyone want to make an Official Billsfans Draft Ranking algorithm?

1. Take the pre-draft player rankings (AP, SI, ESPN, any combination thereof, averaged, whatever).
2. Assign players a value according to their position in the ranking and the draft trade value for the position.  Call that PPDV (predicted player draft value).
3. When drafted, assign an APDV (actual player draft value) of the draft trade value of where they were picked.
4. Calculate the DPD (drafted player divergence) - PPDV - APDV.  Someone ranked third, but drafted first, would have a DPD of -800 (2200 for being ranked third, minus 3000 for being picked first).
5. Sum the DPD for all picks, and divide by the number of picks (which varies annually because of compensatory picks).  That's the ADPV (Average Draft Pick Variance - NOT, notably, the APDV.  It's not a truly bullshit algorithm unless you have nearly indistinguishable abbreviations.)
6. Sum the DPD for each team - sum of the DPD for all their picks - and divide by the number of picks.  That's the TDPV - Team Draft Pick Variance.
7. The difference between the ADPV and TDPV is how well they did.  TDPV's less than the ADPV are worse.  
8. Then assign a letter grade on a curve.  If a TDPV equals the ADPV, the team gets a "C" for their draft.  

For trades - if the trades strictly involve draft picks, no adjustment necessary.  If a trade involves a player, like the A.J. Brown trade...this is only a measure of the ability to draft players, not to manage the roster overall, so anyone who doesn't like the Official BillsFan Draft Ranking (OBFDR) metric can go create their own DAB metric.

 

[Alaska Darin]

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

7 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

 

 

I have never appreciated hearing loss more.

 

And who the hell is #43, ending in "A"?

[Alaska Darin]

25 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

I have never appreciated hearing loss more.

 

And who the hell is #43, ending in "A"?

The ones who wore 43 in that era jersey were Izell Reese & Bryan Scott.  Probably a custom jersey with the family name.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

@KD in CA

 

 

[4merper4mer]

5 hours ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Really, though...

 

Anyone want to make an Official Billsfans Draft Ranking algorithm?

1. Take the pre-draft player rankings (AP, SI, ESPN, any combination thereof, averaged, whatever).
2. Assign players a value according to their position in the ranking and the draft trade value for the position.  Call that PPDV (predicted player draft value).
3. When drafted, assign an APDV (actual player draft value) of the draft trade value of where they were picked.
4. Calculate the DPD (drafted player divergence) - PPDV - APDV.  Someone ranked third, but drafted first, would have a DPD of -800 (2200 for being ranked third, minus 3000 for being picked first).
5. Sum the DPD for all picks, and divide by the number of picks (which varies annually because of compensatory picks).  That's the ADPV (Average Draft Pick Variance - NOT, notably, the APDV.  It's not a truly bullshit algorithm unless you have nearly indistinguishable abbreviations.)
6. Sum the DPD for each team - sum of the DPD for all their picks - and divide by the number of picks.  That's the TDPV - Team Draft Pick Variance.
7. The difference between the ADPV and TDPV is how well they did.  TDPV's less than the ADPV are worse.  
8. Then assign a letter grade on a curve.  If a TDPV equals the ADPV, the team gets a "C" for their draft.  

For trades - if the trades strictly involve draft picks, no adjustment necessary.  If a trade involves a player, like the A.J. Brown trade...this is only a measure of the ability to draft players, not to manage the roster overall, so anyone who doesn't like the Official BillsFan Draft Ranking (OBFDR) metric can go create their own DAB metric.

 

I ran all the picks through this formula and the Bills got a 3.5 score every year since Beane got here.  Does that mean he’s perfect?

[Uncle Joe]

15 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I ran all the picks through this formula and the Bills got a 3.5 score every year since Beane got here.  Does that mean he’s perfect?

3.5 sounds about right

Edited May 7, 2022 by Uncle Joe

[Nanker]

18 hours ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Really, though...

 

Anyone want to make an Official Billsfans Draft Ranking algorithm?

1. Take the pre-draft player rankings (AP, SI, ESPN, any combination thereof, averaged, whatever).
2. Assign players a value according to their position in the ranking and the draft trade value for the position.  Call that PPDV (predicted player draft value).
3. When drafted, assign an APDV (actual player draft value) of the draft trade value of where they were picked.
4. Calculate the DPD (drafted player divergence) - PPDV - APDV.  Someone ranked third, but drafted first, would have a DPD of -800 (2200 for being ranked third, minus 3000 for being picked first).
5. Sum the DPD for all picks, and divide by the number of picks (which varies annually because of compensatory picks).  That's the ADPV (Average Draft Pick Variance - NOT, notably, the APDV.  It's not a truly bullshit algorithm unless you have nearly indistinguishable abbreviations.)
6. Sum the DPD for each team - sum of the DPD for all their picks - and divide by the number of picks.  That's the TDPV - Team Draft Pick Variance.
7. The difference between the ADPV and TDPV is how well they did.  TDPV's less than the ADPV are worse.  
8. Then assign a letter grade on a curve.  If a TDPV equals the ADPV, the team gets a "C" for their draft.  

For trades - if the trades strictly involve draft picks, no adjustment necessary.  If a trade involves a player, like the A.J. Brown trade...this is only a measure of the ability to draft players, not to manage the roster overall, so anyone who doesn't like the Official BillsFan Draft Ranking (OBFDR) metric can go create their own DAB metric.

 

Or just read the Cliff Notes in the Sunday Dilbert column. 

[Fansince88]

16 hours ago, Alaska Darin said:

 

I can almost smell the beer from the lady behind me dancing to that song with her beer in her hand and splashing it on my back after retaking the lead against the Jets. In fairness to her she was drunk 2 quarters before that.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

On 5/6/2022 at 2:50 PM, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Really, though...

 

Anyone want to make an Official Billsfans Draft Ranking algorithm?

1. Take the pre-draft player rankings (AP, SI, ESPN, any combination thereof, averaged, whatever).
2. Assign players a value according to their position in the ranking and the draft trade value for the position.  Call that PPDV (predicted player draft value).
3. When drafted, assign an APDV (actual player draft value) of the draft trade value of where they were picked.
4. Calculate the DPD (drafted player divergence) - PPDV - APDV.  Someone ranked third, but drafted first, would have a DPD of -800 (2200 for being ranked third, minus 3000 for being picked first).
5. Sum the DPD for all picks, and divide by the number of picks (which varies annually because of compensatory picks).  That's the ADPV (Average Draft Pick Variance - NOT, notably, the APDV.  It's not a truly bullshit algorithm unless you have nearly indistinguishable abbreviations.)
6. Sum the DPD for each team - sum of the DPD for all their picks - and divide by the number of picks.  That's the TDPV - Team Draft Pick Variance.
7. The difference between the ADPV and TDPV is how well they did.  TDPV's less than the ADPV are worse.  
8. Then assign a letter grade on a curve.  If a TDPV equals the ADPV, the team gets a "C" for their draft.  

For trades - if the trades strictly involve draft picks, no adjustment necessary.  If a trade involves a player, like the A.J. Brown trade...this is only a measure of the ability to draft players, not to manage the roster overall, so anyone who doesn't like the Official BillsFan Draft Ranking (OBFDR) metric can go create their own DAB metric.

 

 

If anyone's curious...Baltimore got the highest OBFDR - 1184, for getting great value in Hamilton at 14, Linderbaum at 25. and Faalele at 110 with their picks.  

 

Bills had a -448.  Good value in Shakir, but Elam and Cook were poor values at their positions.  

 

Jacksonville had an OBFDR of almost -1900, almost entirely for drafting Travon Walker first.

[IDBillzFan]

It's absolutely great to hear talking heads discuss the Bills like this, but let's be clear, the Bills were not the best team in the league last year, and I don't care what the stats say, the #1 defense does not lose a game when they're winning with 13 seconds left on the clock.

 

 

[Alaska Darin]

 

[Alaska Darin]

 

[Alaska Darin]

 

[Ann]

If you think chick-fil-a lines are long…

 

 

 

 

[IDBillzFan]

I'm conflicted.

 

 

[Alaska Darin]

Yeah ya do.

 

 

[Alaska Darin]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Deranged Rhino]