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Which NFL Teams Are Primed for Sustainable Success?
by Joe Banner

 

While the goal for any franchise is to win the Super Bowl, the best way to achieve that is by building an organization that can have sustainable success. Being competitive year-in and year-out gives an organization the optimal chance to run into a championship when everything clicks for them in a season. Of course, even the best teams deal with meddling problems — injuries, performance drops, etc. — that can temporarily curtail their success. But by taking the long view, certain organizations will consistently be in contention.

 

The issue is that obtaining sustainable success is far easier said than done. Every team tries, but most fail because they don’t identify the right strategy at the outset. For some teams, a lack of patience leads them to mediocrity. With few exceptions, the best teams have taken time to regroup before they’re able to put together a complete roster. Spending significant money at the beginning of a rebuild can produce short-term wins but does not typically lead to long-term success. What are the differentiators that the best teams rely on?

 

Ultimately, there are three general factors that enable organizations to have sustainable success, all of which are simple and obvious to identify, though difficult to get right.

 

1. Head Coach: In my mind, it’s the most important of the three and just slightly ahead of the quarterback. The HC will lead decisions on both sides of the ball and directly impact the QB’s ability to succeed.
2. Quarterback: The most important position in all of sports is the next most important driver of long-term success in football. It’s neck-and-neck with the HC in terms of these criteria, then there’s a sizable gap to the Front Office.
3. Front Office: To succeed, teams need at least a solid front office, which starts with the top football decision maker (typically the GM). If they have the right HC and QB though, this is not quite as paramount.

 

With these criteria in mind, here are the teams that are best setup for sustainable success over the next 3-5 years. Note that this is the timeframe for which we are projecting; this is not a list for 2022 nor the next 10 years. Over the horizon of the next 5 years or so, here are the rankings for likely success…

 

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2. Buffalo Bills


From the day Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane arrived, they have made consistently smart team building moves. I worked with Sean for over a decade, and he's in the top 5 head coaches in the league, if not higher. Their personnel decisions and execution have been excellent to the point that I think they have the best team they’ve had with this regime. They’ve also excelled in hiring. When you get a new coach, teams can be really good for 3-4 years until they start losing some of their coaches. They may not do quite as well when they don’t have the same caliber assistant coaches. Yet, Sean has done a great job of keeping a strong staff together, which will help them sustain success.

 

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10 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

This interview is friggin' great.

 

 


I had never heard that about Diggs!

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Alaska Darin

 

"

Thanks to prudent cap management over the last several years, the Bills were able to extend star wide receiver Stefon Diggs despite quarterback Josh Allen signing an extension that, at the time, set the record for fully guaranteed money at signing with $100 million. Unlike the Green Bay Packers with Davante Adams and Kansas City Chiefs with Tyreek Hill, the Bills elected to roster one of the league’s highest-paid signal callers and pass-catchers simultaneously, but they earned the ability to do so with sharp roster construction. 

 

They were also able to recruit game-wrecking edge defender Von Miller away from the Los Angeles Rams with a six-year, $120 million extension (that’s more like a three-year, $52.5 million extension in reality). Buffalo is going all-in on a Super Bowl run after suffering one of the more painful playoff defeats in recent memory at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

 

Nevertheless, resources are getting a bit thin, and rookie contract players need to step up to push this team to the pinnacle once and for all."

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Alaska Darin

 

 

"The Bills are another team with a long list of great deals on their books, earning two spots on our top 32 contract rankings. Buffalo has a host of other deserving candidates, including cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde — though Poyer is reportedly looking for a new contract before the 2022 season kicks off. 

 

It sounds silly now given Allen’s performance the past two seasons, but the Bills took a bit of a gamble when they extended him coming off his breakout 2020 campaign in which his 90.9 grade was a 25-point improvement over his first two seasons. With quarterbacks Jared Goff and Carson Wentz serving as cautionary tales of the early extension, Buffalo believed Allen would continue to play at an exceptionally high level. 

 

That gamble more than paid off, with Allen’s 88 total regular-season touchdowns scored over the past two seasons more than any other player, and his 70 big-time throws ranking fourth. He’s comfortably one of the top quarterbacks in the sport, and getting his extension done early will benefit the Bills for years to come."

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