Russia Russia Russia

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Edited February 18, 2022 by Deranged Rhino

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Edited February 18, 2022 by Deranged Rhino

[Billsandhorns]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Maybe they are hoping Putin will succumb to her "talent"

[CarpetCrawler]

15 minutes ago, Billsandhorns said:

Maybe they are hoping Putin will succumb to her "talent"

 

It's our only hope.....finally we know the real reason Biden picked her.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

This really highlights what I don't like about Democrats: they're entire belief system is entirely vague platitudes that are unanchored in any sort of reality.  

 

Everything she said sounds profound to progressives...but in reality, all she said was "We'll talk."  Not even talk about anything...just, "We'll talk."

 

It's why Putin runs rings around these people - and Trump, for that matter.  They have concrete policy goals.  We haven't had a Democratic president who had concrete policy goals since...I want to say Clinton, but I'm not even sure that's right.  Maybe Carter, with the concrete policy of "Wear a sweater?"  

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

26 minutes ago, Billsandhorns said:

Maybe they are hoping Putin will succumb to her "talent"

 

Why do you think Putin has this negotiating table?

 

 

[devnull]

23 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

We haven't had a Democratic president who had concrete policy goals since...I want to say Clinton, but I'm not even sure that's right.  Maybe Carter, with the concrete policy of "Wear a sweater?"  

 

LBJ: Guns and butter

[snafu]

3 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

We’re &#%$ed. 
 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

9 minutes ago, snafu said:

We’re &#%$ed. 
 

 

Ukraine is &#%$ed.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

He's not wrong.

 

Of course, those "steps" are merely enforcing and protecting Ukrainian sovereignty...but he wouldn't have taken them without world backing.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

Well, this is a great idea...just the sort of thing you want to do with a war imminent...

 

Russia: Putin to oversee huge nuclear drills amid Ukraine tension

 

I hope their command and control is up to snuff.  I don't even trust our command and control with nukes.

[Hedge]

 

 

 

Here’s an interesting thread:

 

 

[snafu]

Olympics end tomorrow. 
 

[snafu]

15 hours ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

He's not wrong.

 

Of course, those "steps" are merely enforcing and protecting Ukrainian sovereignty...but he wouldn't have taken them without world backing.

Actually, settling the Eastern Ukraine part of this situation may be another way out of disaster.
 

Isn’t one of Putin’s demands that Ukraine live up to their promises in the Minsk Agreement?  I think one thorn in Putin’s side is that since the Agreement was signed 8 years ago, Ukraine hasn’t done anything to settle claims of sovereignty in their East. 

 

Maybe Zelensky has agreed to do this and it hasn’t made a difference — maybe not, I can’t follow that closely.  If not, then that’s the diplomacy that Ukraine has control over to mitigate this impending disaster. It isn’t like Ukraine would be agreeing to something “new”. There’s already an agreement that they may have ignored. 

It’s probably too late, though. 

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

1 hour ago, snafu said:

Actually, settling the Eastern Ukraine part of this situation may be another way out of disaster.
 

 

Except for two things.

1) The Minsk Protocol is...well, largely useless, particularly on the subject of the breakaway provinces.  The whole question of "self-governance" of Luhansk and Donetsk belies the simple fact that it requires Ukraine to recognize separatists as the legal governing authority of the oblasts...and as the separatists are Russian puppets, ultimately requires Ukraine to recognize Russia as the governing authority of "self-governing" provinces.

 

That clause of the Minsk Protocol is ridiculous.  Nothing more than a fig-leaf to mask the West's complete incompetence in trying to manage the problem, to the detriment of the Ukraine.

 

2) More importantly, Putin's consistently and firmly demanded the roll-back of NATO presence from the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and other countries that were not NATO members before 1995 or so.  This isn't just about the Ukraine - never was.  It's about rolling back NATO and regaining the Warsaw Pact bloc as Russia's sphere of influence.  

 

Simplest evidence of that is that Putin keeps stating that NATO is precipitating a war in the Ukraine by deploying troops to eastern NATO countries like the Baltics, Romania, Poland, etc.  The ultimatum's pretty clear in that regard: remove troops from eastern NATO countries, and there'll be no war in Ukraine.  Either result shows NATO is a paper tiger, which is what Putin (and China, indirectly) wants. 

 

The Minsk Protocol doesn't accomplish that.  I strongly suspect that if somehow Ukraine announced, with Western backing and acquiescence, that they'd allow Donetsk and Luhansk to vote for independence tomorrow, Putin would claim the elections were false, and ethnic cleansing and NATO expansion still had to cease to avoid war.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

23 hours ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Sure.  Get civilians crowded in one place, waiting for transportation, and out in the open.  After that...an act of Ukrainian terrorism?  Maybe set off a car bomb?

 

 

 

 

https://t.me/bbbreaking/114852

Quote

Occupation authorities in parts of Donetsk region claim there are casualties among civilian population as result of saboteur attacks

 

https://t.me/rian_ru/146381

Quote

Occupation authorities in parts of Donetsk region claim detained local policeman, accused him in planting explosives at car of commander yesterday. Suspect told about schemes to deliver weapons and explosives to Donbas, also that Ukrainian military entered Belarus to watch Russian-Belarusian drill, also about recruiting of sleeping cells of agents

 

 

Russians are nothing if not predictable.  

 

And are also very good, not hiding their true intentions, but masquerading them.  

[snafu]

2 hours ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Except for two things.

1) The Minsk Protocol is...well, largely useless, particularly on the subject of the breakaway provinces.  The whole question of "self-governance" of Luhansk and Donetsk belies the simple fact that it requires Ukraine to recognize separatists as the legal governing authority of the oblasts...and as the separatists are Russian puppets, ultimately requires Ukraine to recognize Russia as the governing authority of "self-governing" provinces.

 

That clause of the Minsk Protocol is ridiculous.  Nothing more than a fig-leaf to mask the West's complete incompetence in trying to manage the problem, to the detriment of the Ukraine.

 

2) More importantly, Putin's consistently and firmly demanded the roll-back of NATO presence from the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and other countries that were not NATO members before 1995 or so.  This isn't just about the Ukraine - never was.  It's about rolling back NATO and regaining the Warsaw Pact bloc as Russia's sphere of influence.  

 

Simplest evidence of that is that Putin keeps stating that NATO is precipitating a war in the Ukraine by deploying troops to eastern NATO countries like the Baltics, Romania, Poland, etc.  The ultimatum's pretty clear in that regard: remove troops from eastern NATO countries, and there'll be no war in Ukraine.  Either result shows NATO is a paper tiger, which is what Putin (and China, indirectly) wants. 

 

The Minsk Protocol doesn't accomplish that.  I strongly suspect that if somehow Ukraine announced, with Western backing and acquiescence, that they'd allow Donetsk and Luhansk to vote for independence tomorrow, Putin would claim the elections were false, and ethnic cleansing and NATO expansion still had to cease to avoid war.

My point is that it is a pretext to de-escalate. When settling things, you just need a hook.  Then labels and logic matter less.

 

With regard to your first point, the shitty Minsk deal was signed long ago.  Just because it is shitty doesn’t mean it isn’t a reason to act on it.  Ukraine needs to weigh losing eastern provinces that have actively been fighting to separate for 8 years vs. getting steamrollered all the way to their capital and beyond.  Ukraine still has some leverage as long as Russia stays on their side of the border. A ridiculous clause in the Minsk agreement is irrelevant at this point. 
 

With regard to your second point, Russians have been complaining about NATO expansion since 1997.  They always said that Ukraine was the final straw.  I do understand that with Nordstream 2 in place, Russian gas doesn’t need to flow through Ukraine anymore.  And that would help open up Ukraine as a lever to demand NATO rollback. But Nordstream 2 isn’t quite a done deal yet, and there are other gas options for Europe: (1) southern gas pipeline from Azerbaijan into Italy, (2) US LNG; (3) Europe actually has a lot of untapped natural gas.  A lot hinges on the Germans and a lot hinges on Biden’s domestic “green” policy of not wanting to exploit gas resources to replace the lost gas from Nordstream 2. I honestly think (Biden’s bad policy choices notwithstanding) a major reason why Putin hasn’t gone into Ukraine yet is because of Nordstream 2. He will get his gas at the expense of giving up the NATO rollback claim. Add to that the fact that Biden has stated that the US isn’t going to send troops in to Ukraine to fight. 

 

So Ukraine has some leverage to take away one Russian demand.

And Nordstream 2 is leverage to take away the other Russian demand. 

Ukraine isn’t in EU and Ukraine isn’t in NATO.    Putin MADE this crisis, like he likes to do.  The NATO status quo never threatened him. In fact, a good argument can be made that NATO is more necessary now than ever, simply because of what Putin is doing. 

That’s all I see left before shit really hits the fan. And I’d say that if Putin goes into Ukraine, he will win the battle but lose the war — both in Ukraine and beyond. He’s made a mistake. 

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2022 by snafu

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Hedge]