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[Foxx]

11 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

While everything is a situation...the biggest issue at that point was time.  I think when the ball was snapped before their final offensive play, there were 31 seconds left. 

 

 

I didn't catch the end of the game. 

 

However, being you were that close to the endzone and so little time remained on the clock, would it have made more sense to go for the TD there? Thereby, if successful, would not your recovery of the onside kick give you better odds of getting that second score rather than having to get a TD for that second score?

 

I honestly do not know how the analytics would breakdown in that situation but I would certainly think, considering that situation, it may have been better to go for 6 there.

[Alaska Darin]

16 minutes ago, Foxx said:

I didn't catch the end of the game. 

 

However, being you were that close to the endzone and so little time remained on the clock, would it have made more sense to go for the TD there? Thereby, if successful, would not your recovery of the onside kick give you better odds of getting that second score rather than having to get a TD for that second score?

 

I honestly do not know how the analytics would breakdown in that situation but I would certainly think, considering that situation, it may have been better to go for 6 there.

It's an interesting debate.

 

Here's the situation as I saw it:

 

1.  52 seconds left, 2 Time Outs.  First down at the ATL 34.  Wilson throws an incompletion.  (I don't know if the Jets' kicker is any good...but honestly I think I woulda kicked the FG here just because you really do need a miracle to have a chance to win - so why not give yourself as much time as possible to pull it off?).

 

2.  2nd down, 42 second left.  Wilson makes a good read but a bad throw.  Gets bailed out by Davis, who makes a great catch sliding on the ground and reaching back to get the ball.  First down at the ATL 14.  33 seconds left.  Jets use their second time out.  At this point, I'm 50/50 with trying one shot at the endzone because theoretically you're going to use 8 or 9 seconds at most.  My thought here is you recover the kick with 17 seconds left and a timeout, so your entire playbook is still available to you - so you can get 20-25 yards and have a realistic shot of at least getting the ball into the endzone.

 

3.  Whatever Wilson's first read was...it wasn't there.  So he runs around like a moron and takes a 17 yard sack AND the Jets lose 11 seconds, forcing them to use both their final time out and kick the FG.  17 seconds left.

 

4.  Onside kick fails...ball game.

 

 

[Foxx]

37 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

It's an interesting debate.

 

Here's the situation as I saw it:

 

1.  52 seconds left, 2 Time Outs.  First down at the ATL 34.  Wilson throws an incompletion.  (I don't know if the Jets' kicker is any good...but honestly I think I woulda kicked the FG here just because you really do need a miracle to have a chance to win - so why not give yourself as much time as possible to pull it off?).

 

2.  2nd down, 42 second left.  Wilson makes a good read but a bad throw.  Gets bailed out by Davis, who makes a great catch sliding on the ground and reaching back to get the ball.  First down at the ATL 14.  33 seconds left.  Jets use their second time out.  At this point, I'm 50/50 with trying one shot at the endzone because theoretically you're going to use 8 or 9 seconds at most.  My thought here is you recover the kick with 17 seconds left and a timeout, so your entire playbook is still available to you - so you can get 20-25 yards and have a realistic shot of at least getting the ball into the endzone.

 

3.  Whatever Wilson's first read was...it wasn't there.  So he runs around like a moron and takes a 17 yard sack AND the Jets lose 11 seconds, forcing them to use both their final time out and kick the FG.  17 seconds left.

 

4.  Onside kick fails...ball game.

 

 

Sound arguments on both sides of the equation I guess.

 

From my perspective and one I have employed in most situations in my life, I prefer working downhill. I see too many advantages in doing so to really do it another way.

 

Of course, knowing just where one is at on that proverbial hill and which direction they are going is always key.

[GG1]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

I understand the logic of taking the field goal when you need two scores. Yet to my way of thinking, I think there has to be sort of a Mendoza line where, once you get to a certain point on the field, it makes way more sense to try and make that first score a TD.

 

Exactly where that point is would probably be different for many teams along with other external considerations

 

Situation dictates for a FG, because with the time left if you kick the FG, you'd have a better shot for a Hail Mary TD after onside recovery, then you would trying to position for a FG.  Of course you could still go for the Hail Mary even down by 3.

[LB3]

This Packers-Bengals game is wild. Five missed field goals since around 2 minutes to go in the game.

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, GG1 said:

 

Situation dictates for a FG, because with the time left if you kick the FG, you'd have a better shot for a Hail Mary TD after onside recovery, then you would trying to position for a FG.  Of course you could still go for the Hail Mary even down by 3.

Are the odds of completing a Hail Mary better than completing a pass or two to get into field goal range? I dunno... 

[Koko]

32 minutes ago, Foxx said:

Are the odds of completing a Hail Mary better than completing a pass or two to get into field goal range? I dunno... 

 

I think you have a far better chance scoring a TD from their 14, than trying to score one from your 45 (assuming you have the right onside kick call/execution), and I also think you have a far better chance hitting 1-2 completions to get to their 35 from your 45, than you do throwing a TD from your 45.

Edited October 10, 2021 by Koko

[GG1]

29 minutes ago, Foxx said:

Are the odds of completing a Hail Mary better than completing a pass or two to get into field goal range? I dunno... 

 

Take the totality of the probabilities

 

35 seconds to go, no TOs, down by 10

 

A - Kick a FG with 90% probability of 3 pts and 4 secs off the clock.  Recover onside kick, 1-2 plays to get to the 50 for Hail Mary

 

B - Try to go for a TD (30% probability in one play, 50% probability in two plays?) - 5 -15 seconds off the clock.  Recover onside kick, 2-3 plays to get to the 40 for FG try.

 

Option B is more risky and would take more time off the clock

[Robs House]

Not that I care about the Giants or Cowboys, but it irks me when the Giants db gets called for grazing the WR, and the Cowboys db gets a pass for tackling the receiver in the end zone before the pass.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

Just now, Robs House said:

Not that I care about the Giants or Cowboys, but it irks me when the Giants db gets called for grazing the WR, and the Cowboys db gets a pass for tackling the receiver in the end zone before the pass.

 

That was a particularly bad non-call.  It was at the very least holding.

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

That was a particularly bad non-call.  It was at the very least holding.

They are America's Team playing at home.

[Robs House]

2 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

That was a particularly bad non-call.  It was at the very least holding.

 

Exactly. The worst part was the announcer shilling for the refs claiming the guy slipped as we're watching the slow motion replay of him getting thrown to the ground.

[Ann]

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1447403216958799875

[Ann]

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1447541240174682115

[Spartacus]

new TV deals

more close games than ever

more TV viewers watch longer

more commercials

 

all just a coincidence - just look at the integrity of the officiating to confirm

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/10/11/18-of-79-games-have-been-decided-in-final-minute-or-overtime/

 

The NFL has played 79 regular-season games in 2021. Of those, 18 have been decided in the final minute of regulation or overtime.

According to the NFL, that’s the most ever in the first five weeks of a season.

 

Also, 21 games have been decided by three points or fewer, tied for the most ever through five weeks. On Sunday, four such games happened.

 

There also has been at least one overtime game every week, only the second time that’s ever happened through five weeks.

 

And Week Five isn’t over. The Colts return to Baltimore tonight. While the Ravens are favored to win, a wise man once said that’s why they play the games. This year, the games are as exciting as ever. And there are still 13 weeks left.

[Ann]

 

 

https://twitter.com/NFLResearch/status/1447665118804729857

[Spartacus]

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/10/11/brian-flores-hopefully-tua-tagovailoa-will-be-ready-to-go-this-week/

 

During his Monday press conference, Miami head coach Brian Flores told reporters that Tua Tagovailoa is making a lot of improvement and could potentially get activated to play in this weeks matchup against the Jaguars in London.

 

“What we need to see is to see him move around, see him throw the ball, see him on the run. See the deep ball,” Flores said, via Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “The one thing we won’t see is real and true contact. There will obviously be some pain tolerance he’ll need to deal with.”

[Nanker]

10 hours ago, Ann said:

 

 

https://twitter.com/NFLResearch/status/1447665118804729857

What was MY favorite moment? We’ll, I posted it elsewhere around here, but here goes - along with brilliant commentary. BRILLIANT commentary:

 

 

[Ann]

wow

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

1 hour ago, Ann said:

wow

 

I didn't know he requested to be cut by the Raiders.

 

One wonders if Gruden cut him via email...