Russia Russia Russia

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

3 minutes ago, RkFast said:

So yesterday Putin basically laid out his red line. Ukraine to NATO, then an attempt to retake Crimea and then the R-36's start flying. 

 

Why do I seem to the only person shitting his pants over such a possibility?

 

You're the only one because most recognize it's largely bluster, because Putin knows that Western Europe is too dependent on Russian natural gas to let Ukraine in to NATO, and no one on the planet has the capacity to retake the Crimea.  The US has more and better power projection capability than the rest of the planet combined, and we couldn't do it.  

 

Side note: the NATO code name for the R-36?  The SS-18 Satan.  Which I always felt was the perfect name for a nuclear ICBM, personally.

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

You're the only one because most recognize it's largely bluster, because Putin knows that Western Europe is too dependent on Russian natural gas to let Ukraine in to NATO, and no one on the planet has the capacity to retake the Crimea.  The US has more and better power projection capability than the rest of the planet combined, and we couldn't do it.  

 

Side note: the NATO code name for the R-36?  The SS-18 Satan.  Which I always felt was the perfect name for a nuclear ICBM, personally.

 

Watching how the press rolled out this "crisis" is really, really telling. I think you're right in all you state above, I think there's a lot of blustering going on. What should be most concerning to Americans (or people in the west) is that the most unhinged sabre rattling has come from Team Biden. And it was done solely to change the national narrative(s) about how big of a disaster his administration has been to date. 

 

Biden tried to Wag the Dog, but forgot all his lines and wound up making the whole thing far more explosive than his handlers ever intended (imo). It's like he watched the movie, but only absorbed Dustin Hoffman character's narcissism. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

Just now, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Watching how the press rolled out this "crisis" is really, really telling. I think you're right in all you state above, I think there's a lot of blustering going on. What should be most concerning to Americans (or people in the west) is that the most unhinged sabre rattling has come from Team Biden. And it was done solely to change the national narrative(s) about how big of a disaster his administration has been to date. 

 

Biden tried to Wag the Dog, but forgot all his lines and wound up making the whole thing far more explosive than his handlers ever intended (imo). It's like he watched the movie, but only absorbed Dustin Hoffman character's narcissism. 

 

I genuinely don't think he tried to wag the dog.  I don't think this administration's policy formulations, in any sense and on any topic, are coherent enough to "wag the dog."  

 

I'd consider it far more likely that he's just a simpleton, advised by simpletons, trying to protect the people in the Ukraine who lined his pockets.

[Deranged Rhino]

3 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

I genuinely don't think he tried to wag the dog.  I don't think this administration's policy formulations, in any sense and on any topic, are coherent enough to "wag the dog."  

 

I'd consider it far more likely that he's just a simpleton, advised by simpletons, trying to protect the people in the Ukraine who lined his pockets.

 

You're probably correct that I'm giving Joe and his team too much credit. 

 

Can you imagine how this scene would play out in real life with that crew? 

(it's rhetorical since Macy's character would be on their team)

 

 

[RkFast]

37 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

You're the only one because most recognize it's largely bluster, because Putin knows that Western Europe is too dependent on Russian natural gas to let Ukraine in to NATO, and no one on the planet has the capacity to retake the Crimea.  The US has more and better power projection capability than the rest of the planet combined, and we couldn't do it.  

 

Side note: the NATO code name for the R-36?  The SS-18 Satan.  Which I always felt was the perfect name for a nuclear ICBM, personally.

 

Thanks for understanding my irrational take. I admit, I've watched "The Day After" WAY too many times for my own good. 

 

My fears mostly comes from, as you allude to above, the wild-eyed incompetency and aggressive posture of the White House and others. It seems like no opportunity to escalate rhetoric is passed over, especially by the Pentagon, less so by State. Of course, that would make sense given the overall mission of the Pentagon vs. State. Like many, Im looking to Michael McFaul for a lot of the perspective on this and he does make a key point...what about Russian aggression? Arent THEY the ones massing troops and equipment on the borders of Ukraine? Of course. But to me,  it appears the overall thought process of the US and NATO and the entire west seems to be "F Russia." That is, they were beaten down after the Cold War and most important, should REMAIN, a beaten down nation and that the west and NATO can and WILL do what it pleases in terms of expansion and militarily and Putin just has to take it. Im sorry, maybe Im getting older now, but that just seems nuts to me. Yes, hes an autocrat. So what? Regardless of how he runs his govt, I think he has every right to push back on NATO sitting on Russia's doorstep just as the US pushed back on the Soviets on our doorstep in 1962.  

 

Looking at this with even a wider lens, I think the US is foolish trying to think that we are the only superpower anymore and try to stay on this "post Cold War" footing. Russia is making its moves to assert itself, as is China. Russia has A LOT of oil and natural resources and China basically OWNS our entire manufacturing base now. Its not good and its like high school. We were the jocks with the prom queen. Well...high school is over and the two nerds we bullied grew up to be engineers and doctors. We either learn to compete with them or they will be the ones pulling OUR underwear over our heads. OK, thats a REALLY lousy metaphor. Hope it makes sense. 

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by RkFast

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Posted with the caveat CTM noted above...

 

Regarding that caveat...the smallest circle on the scale roughly represents one operational unit (BTG - size varies, but about 700 men).  So you can get a rough idea, from that map, of where the operational concentrations are.  

 

Very rough, though - for example, while there's a lot of troops in Sevastopol, very few of them are likely maneuver battalions.  More likely strategic-level defense troops, or naval support.

[snafu]

14 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Watching how the press rolled out this "crisis" is really, really telling. I think you're right in all you state above, I think there's a lot of blustering going on. What should be most concerning to Americans (or people in the west) is that the most unhinged sabre rattling has come from Team Biden. And it was done solely to change the national narrative(s) about how big of a disaster his administration has been to date. 

 

Biden tried to Wag the Dog, but forgot all his lines and wound up making the whole thing far more explosive than his handlers ever intended (imo). It's like he watched the movie, but only absorbed Dustin Hoffman character's narcissism. 

The White House has no idea what Putin’s plans are. 
They’re probably crapping themselves thinking about the near post-Olympic future when there’s a decent possibility that China causes trouble with Taiwan (or any other number of places) and Russia squeezes the life out of Ukraine at the same time.  
 

Seems their response in the media is to predict disaster in Ukraine.  If it happens, they can say that they warned us and made plans. If it doesn’t happen, they can try to make a claim that their actions made the Russians back down. Either result will be used to boost their chances come the November midterms. 

 

Russia seems more ready to succeed because Ukraine isn’t in NATO and the Europeans aren’t fully behind helping them out (Germany). But at the same time, Putin still has an “out” later this month if he simply holds his military exercises and sends most of his troops back to where they came from once the exercises are done. He may just do that.  Selling gas to Europe is a huge motivator, and there are alternatives to Russian gas.  The smart thing to do is what’s being done in Ukraine.  Get ready and don’t do anything stupid to provoke a Russian response.  The Russians can’t plausibly justify invading, so they don’t have the moral ground. I think that although Russia can crush Ukraine, Putin made a mistake and he’s going to back out. 
 

Not to derail the thread… China has troubles domestically and they’re faced with the prospect of dealing with somewhat more motivated responses for the US, Japan, Australia, and India (and Taiwan, itself). China’s got a daunting chore compared to Russia. But their window is just about shut and I can see where the Russians and Chinese act simultaneously (but not coordinated) if each wants to succeed in their separate goals. 
 

[devnull]

58 minutes ago, snafu said:

The White House has no idea what Putin’s plans are. 
They’re probably crapping themselves thinking about the near post-Olympic future when there’s a decent possibility that China causes trouble with Taiwan (or any other number of places) and Russia squeezes the life out of Ukraine at the same time.  
 

 

Wouldn't be the first time Biden sh*t himself on the world stage

[RkFast]

After watching this I may have changed my mind a bit. Russia goes in and this is their Iraq, and then some. Not only is there the formal Ukrainian army, there are everyday civilians ready to pick up weapons and fight. There will be a massive insurgency for them to deal with and unless the Russians go full medieval, which they wont, that will bleed them dry and turn the Russian populace on Putin quickly. 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/between-us/2022/2/10/ukraine-russia-the-standoff

 

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by RkFast

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

4 minutes ago, RkFast said:

After watching this I may have changed my mind a bit. Russia goes in and this is their Iraq, and then some. Not only is there the formal Ukrainian army, there are everyday civilians ready to pick up weapons and fight. There will be a massive insurgency for them to deal with and unless the Russians go full medieval, which they wont, that will bleed them dry and turn the Russian populace on Putin quickly. 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/between-us/2022/2/10/ukraine-russia-the-standoff

 

 

 

The difference - and it's a big one - is that there's a history between these two nations that goes back some thousand years or more. 400 years ago, Ukraine was annexed by Tsarist Russia from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.  And they've been fighting wars over it ever since - a major, but in the west virtually unknown, war was fought between Ukrainian partisans, Soviet forces (Red Army and Red Army-backed anti-German partisans), and Polish partisans, over just this history.

 

We, as Americans, have a nasty tendency to dismiss the long histories of Old World countries and conflicts, since our history dates back only about 250 years, realistically (400 years at most).  The history between these two cultures - not even countries, as it predates the Peace of Westphalia and modern definition of "nation" - dates far back into history.  The past 30 years have been an aberration.  This ancient history to us is still very recent history to them.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

On 1/21/2022 at 5:10 PM, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

If that force enters the Sea of Azov, or approaches Kherson (on the lower Dnepr, where it would screen the flank of a thrust out of the Isthmus of Perekop towards Zaporozhye), consider that a war warning.  Otherwise, this 'phib force is useless.

 

Current Russian dispositions don't support a full invasion, but a limited incursion into eastern Ukraine towards Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkiv.   And I'm sure Biden has been told that, which is why he was wishy-washy about responding to a "limited incursion" in his press conference.

 

On 1/24/2022 at 2:30 PM, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

That was one of my bigger worries: strengthening the grouping of forces in Belarus.  

 

Without that, Russian operations would be constrained to the left bank of the Dnepr.  With forces in Belarus, that indicates a planned action somewhere along the Kovel-Korosten-Kiev line, on the right bank of the Dnepr.  That would mean not just a limited offensive into Eastern Ukraine, but a more general offensive.

 

This is what the above two posts look like in "arrows on a map" form.  Yeah, there's a big gap on the middle Dneiper where nothing's going on...but there's nothing critical in that region.  This traps most Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dneiper, and completely secures the Black Sea.  

 

And this controls the Black Sea because Obama was gave Russia tacit control over Syria and pushed Turkey into closer ties with Russia...so now Russia has a presence in the Bosporus.

[Deranged Rhino]

Hmmm

 

 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Deranged Rhino

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

THIS is key.  Again, don't look at numbers, look at unit capabilities.  This is the first thing I've seen that truly worries me.

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

THIS is key.  Again, don't look at numbers, look at unit capabilities.  This is the first thing I've seen that truly worries me.

 

 

 

And to balance it all out: 

 

Contradicting narratives, contradicting leaks. Me thinks the US/NATO intelligence factions are still very, very fractured and the cracks are starting to show.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

And to balance it all out: 

 

Contradicting narratives, contradicting leaks. Me thinks the US/NATO intelligence factions are still very, very fractured and the cracks are starting to show.

 

Governments lie.  Objective observations of capabilities don't.  

 

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Governments lie.  Objective observations of capabilities don't.  

 

 

Absolutely. 

 

I just am trying to figure out what the Brits and MI6/GCHQ get out of driving a wedge between the US intel community and their own at this moment in time. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

26 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Absolutely. 

 

I just am trying to figure out what the Brits and MI6/GCHQ get out of driving a wedge between the US intel community and their own at this moment in time. 

 

They're quoting an official Russian source, while the US intel community is quoting their own secret sources.  

 

Simple disagreement of sources explains it well enough.  I don't particularly trust either of them.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

Reminder: this all Trump's fault, even though he imposed harsh sanctions on Russia, and Russia did precisely jack shit during his term.