Russia Russia Russia

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/10/russian-naval-buildup-ukraine-cold-war-levels-00007986

 

About the Russian naval deployment to the Black Sea.  Some interesting things in this article:

 

Quote

“We haven’t seen a movement like this in recent history,” in the Black Sea, said retired Adm. James Foggo,

 

Probably since 1990/1991 Gulf War.  I can't recall a large movement of amphibious assault ships since - not even Kosovo or OIF.

Quote

 

Russia declared off-limits swaths of international waters surrounding occupied Crimea and the Ukrainian city of Odessa.

[...]

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry protested the maritime closures Thursday, calling the notice of live-fire exercises just off Ukraine’s coast “unprecedented” as they make navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov “virtually impossible.”

 

 

That's interesting.  Russian live-fire exercises are basically creating a de facto exclusion zone on the Ukrainian coast days before the rumored invasion.  

Russians would still be idiots to put an amphibious force in to Odessa, though.  That's hanging them way out on a limb without support.  

 

Quote

The notice laying out the no-go zones for commercial shipping and air traffic Feb. 13-19

 

And there's your window for balloon going up.  Wouldn't be surprised if that, rather than any super-secret squirrel stuff, was why the US IC decided to forecast Tuesday the 14th.  

 

Quote

Following the Russian buildup in the Black Sea, NATO allies Germany and Spain have started preparations to send fighter planes to Romania and Bulgaria to assist with the air policing mission along the coast.

 

An example of why the Russians can't wait too long.  They have a correlation of forces in the theater that greatly favors them, but only for a short while.  That window starts to close in...3-7 days, maybe.  In other words, from the 13th to the 17th of this month.

 

Quote

No NATO ships are currently operating in the Black Sea.

 

Another example of why they can't wait too long.

 

Quote

Over the past week, the flagships of the Northern and Pacific fleets, missile cruisers Marshal Ustinov and Varyag — sister ships to the Moskva — have arrived in the Mediterranean. There, they will operate close to the U.S. Navy’s Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, which has been exercising with two other carriers, France’s Charles de Gaulle and Italy’s Cavour.

 

So they've taken major fleet units (and the Ustinov and Varyag are very powerful assets) from other fleets to shadow major NATO units in the Mediterranean, so the Black Sea Fleet units don't have to.  That's a covering force for the main event.  They staged a major fleet unit from Vladivostok to the Mediterranean for that purpose.  That's expensive - you don't do that unless you're serious about starting shit.

 

Quote

The Russian cruisers and their support ships will be able to use the Syrian port of Tartus to resupply, under an agreement with Bashar Assad’s government that allowed Russia to expand and modernize the port. The amphibious ships drawn from the Northern and Baltic fleets — which can launch craft to put troops and vehicles ashore at multiple points along the coastline — stopped in the port to refuel and resupply before moving into the Black Sea.

 

Seriously...&#%$ you, Obama.  They couldn't have done this without you.  You and your &#%$ing imaginary "red line."  You handed Putin the basing he needed to cover an incursion in to the Ukraine. 

 

But Trump was in Putin's pocket...sure...

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[RkFast]

CTM....thanks for the analysis. You know this stuff better than anyone...always have. Based on everything *Im* seeing, theres no way Putin DOESNT go in now. What he has amassed is way beyind an "excercise", right? Although...if he gets concessions he wants in terms of getting NATO off his doorstep, then maybe thats worth the cost of all these movements to him. "Gunboat Diplomacy", right? 

 

But lets just say he does go in? Whats your assessment then? From what Im reading the Russian populace doesnt have much of an appetite for war and the Russian economy isnt in good shape at all. What could be his endgame? Regime change in Ukraine? Folding Ukraine into Russia? Or, is this the first step towards a real push westward and war with NATO? I CANT see how it could be the last. Even China wouldnt back him on that.

Edited February 12, 2022 by RkFast

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1492440785223966720

 

[Foxx]

Okay, this is kinda funny.

 

[B-Man]

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 hours ago, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1492440785223966720

 

 

The problem I have with statements like these is the naïve one-sidedness of them.  Putin gets a say in this war, too...and, in fact, his say counts for far more, as he'd decide to invade the Ukraine regardless of what the "MIC/neocon/warmonger" cabal could possibly do.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Tomorrow or early next week it will start if it's going to start (reading tea leaves, not proclaiming to know)

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

15 hours ago, RkFast said:

CTM....thanks for the analysis. You know this stuff better than anyone...always have. Based on everything *Im* seeing, theres no way Putin DOESNT go in now. What he has amassed is way beyind an "excercise", right? Although...if he gets concessions he wants in terms of getting NATO off his doorstep, then maybe thats worth the cost of all these movements to him. "Gunboat Diplomacy", right? 

 

But lets just say he does go in? Whats your assessment then? From what Im reading the Russian populace doesnt have much of an appetite for war and the Russian economy isnt in good shape at all. What could be his endgame? Regime change in Ukraine? Folding Ukraine into Russia? Or, is this the first step towards a real push westward and war with NATO? I CANT see how it could be the last. Even China wouldnt back him on that.

 

He can always change his mind at the last minute - any responsible war planning (and the Russians general staff, if nothing else, are excellent war planners) includes a recall option.  Ultimately, his goals are simple, and he's already stated them: removal of NATO from Eastern Europe - no additional members, and rollback of NATO forces to 1990s lines.  He is, of course, not getting that.

 

If Russia goes in to Ukraine, it'll probably be to pursue regime change and set the Ukraine up as a puppet a la Belarus.  Possibly it might include annexing Eastern Ukraine.  Really, the Russians haven't collected enough forces to conquer the whole country - they've got roughly what we sent in to Iraq in 2003, for a country about eight times larger.  This isn't an occupation force they've assembled.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

5 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Tomorrow or early next week it will start if it's going to start (reading tea leaves, not proclaiming to know)

 

Their scheduled exercises start tomorrow, so that's the earliest.

 

But the amphibious group isn't fully in place until Monday, and also figure it usually takes 48-72 hours to shut down an embassy.  So Tuesday's a better bet.

[Deranged Rhino]

5 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Monkey said:

 

Their scheduled exercises start tomorrow, so that's the earliest.

 

But the amphibious group isn't fully in place until Monday, and also figure it usually takes 48-72 hours to shut down an embassy.  So Tuesday's a better bet.

 

Good call. 

 

I still expect this to have a "miracle" resolution at the 11th hour which Biden will try like hell to take credit for. He'll claim he pulled us from the brink while omitting the part that he lead us to the brink with his own ineptitude. 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Good call. 

 

I still expect this to have a "miracle" resolution at the 11th hour which Biden will try like hell to take credit for. He'll claim he pulled us from the brink while omitting the part that he lead us to the brink with his own ineptitude. 

 

Biden is certainly clueless enough to give Putin everything he asks for, then step off Air Force One waving a piece of paper, shouting "Peace in our time!"

 

And that, quite frankly, would benefit the MIC/neocons/warmongers most.  Perpetual low-level conflict.

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Good call. 

 

I still expect this to have a "miracle" resolution at the 11th hour which Biden will try like hell to take credit for. He'll claim he pulled us from the brink while omitting the part that he lead us to the brink with his own ineptitude. 

I dunno. With everything upon the world stage currently and the plebs threatening worldwide revolution, this may just be the next act in the play to control the useless eaters.

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, Foxx said:

I dunno. With everything upon the world stage currently and the plebs threatening worldwide revolution, this may just be the next act in the play to control the useless eaters.

 

That is the other side of the coin. And speaks to the larger issue of who's really calling the shots that I've spoken to many times in the past. 

 

Joe and his team aren't the ones in charge, not really. They may think they are, but they're pawns to the ones who pay them, blackmail them, own them. And while Joe and company may be thinking they're about to get a big "peace" win, their masters might actually be better off with what you state above. 

 

I'm just hoping there's enough good people left in the machine to thwart that. 

[Deranged Rhino]

It's not excellent strategy. 

 

Not when you're risking potentially millions of lives while running that gambit.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

16 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

It's not excellent strategy. 

 

Not when you're risking potentially millions of lives while running that gambit.

 

Even beyond that, "We told you so" is a very stupid strategy.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

39 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

So much for their "Russia isn't going to invade" analysis.  

 

Note that it's only about 300 troops and families, though.  Just a training cadre.

[Deranged Rhino]

Lots of mixed signals today, as expected. On one hand you have rumblings that a peace deal is in the works. Then on the other you have reports saying the invasion starts Tuesday. Then this: 

 

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1492928217329680389