[positional grouping] Bills Receiver Group

[Spartacus]

Interesting articles

look for Hutchinson

 

no midgets

 

https://buffalofambase.com/2023/02/17/elimination-game-wrs-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/

 

Here are the remaining WR targets, sorted by their ranks on the BuffaloFAMBase Big Board:

You can see Beane’s five deep-speed guys are Addison, Smith-Njigba, Hyatt, Hutchinson, and Mims. You can also see the quintet of reliable, high-catch-rate Taye Barber, Smith-Njigba, Wilson, and Hyatt/Hutchinson (tie). The best 5 interviews came from Smith-Njigba, Hyatt, Mims, Wilson, and Barber. I could see the Bills double-dipping at wide receiver. For example, draft Taye Barber as Day-3 competition in the slot and Jalin Hyatt really pushing Davis and Shakir as the understudy to Stefon Diggs. Don’t count out Michael Wilson, though.

 

[Alaska Darin]

29 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Interesting articles

look for Hutchinson

 

no midgets

 

https://buffalofambase.com/2023/02/17/elimination-game-wrs-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/

 

Here are the remaining WR targets, sorted by their ranks on the BuffaloFAMBase Big Board:

You can see Beane’s five deep-speed guys are Addison, Smith-Njigba, Hyatt, Hutchinson, and Mims. You can also see the quintet of reliable, high-catch-rate Taye Barber, Smith-Njigba, Wilson, and Hyatt/Hutchinson (tie). The best 5 interviews came from Smith-Njigba, Hyatt, Mims, Wilson, and Barber. I could see the Bills double-dipping at wide receiver. For example, draft Taye Barber as Day-3 competition in the slot and Jalin Hyatt really pushing Davis and Shakir as the understudy to Stefon Diggs. Don’t count out Michael Wilson, though.

 

Height is extremely overrated for WRs.  Guys can either separate or they can't. 

 

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a great NFL player.

[Spartacus]

11 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

Height is extremely overrated for WRs.  Guys can either separate or they can't. 

 

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a great NFL player.

so was Roscoe Parrish

[Alaska Darin]

9 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

so was Roscoe Parrish

Had to reach pretty far for that stupid take.

[Spartacus]

3 hours ago, Alaska Darin said:

Height is extremely overrated for WRs.  Guys can either separate or they can't. 

 

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a great NFL player.

• 39
  Jalin Hyatt

  WR | Tennessee
  A+
• 53
  Jack Campbell

  LB | Iowa
  A+
• 73
  Joe Tippmann

  IOL | Wisconsin
  A+
• 91
  Matthew Bergeron

  OT | Syracuse
  A+
• 104
  Jordan Battle

  S | Alabama
  A+

[SquirminThurman]

On 4/4/2023 at 1:54 PM, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

79th in receptions, 186th in catch percentage, 33rd in yards, 34th in YPG, 50th in first downs.

 

But DYAR and DVOA matter...I guess.  But not as much as the OBF DAB POMA NMARM, in which he's 41st.

I looked at all 85 WR with 50+ Targets in 2022 - the volume WR

 

Methodology:

50 targets is 3-4 minimum a game if all games are played, but also allows for a guy who missed a bunch of games, but gets targeted when healthy to be included. It also allows for WR who became more involved in an offense as the season went on to be included.

 

A population of 85 WR should include all the #1WR, #2 WR and high volume #3 WRs for comparison.

 

Using net output is important in telling part of the tale, but not conclusive. A WR with 120 targets should have more net output in total catches, TDs, First Downs and yards than a WR with 70 targets. That is common sense.

 

Efficiency is yards/catch, first downs/ target etc and helps level the field on targets alone. What does a WR do per target and per catch?

 

Players with the same value got the same rank

 

Gabe Davis Ranked:

40/ 85 total targets (93)

43/ 85 targets per game played (6.2)

We would 'expect' GD 'net amounts' to be in the 40-43 range based on opportunities versus his peers.

41st in OBF DAB POMA NMARM

 

The 'Bad'

83/85 catches per target (catch %) - We all know this, some refuse to look beyond it. It was awful.

55/85 Receptions per game - same as above

52/85 in catches - a result of moderate volume and poor catch %

46/85 - First Downs/Target - a bit low, but within range

 

The 'Expected'

40/85 - Net First Downs - so the guy 40th in targets is 40th in total first downs, what a shocker

 

The 'Good'

30/85 Net receiving yards - despite being 40th in targets, at least 2 teams #1 WR had fewer net yards receiving

31/ 85 Net yards receiving per game

 

The 'Excellent'

17/85 Yards per target - deep passes = more difficult to complete

12/85 Net TD Receptions - 40th in targets/ 52nd in catches - seems to turn a lot of catches into TDs..

9/ 85 First Downs per reception - only 8 WR turned catches into first downs better than GD.

          (C. Davis/ Waddle/ Chark/ Cooper/ MVS/ Lazard/ Dotson/ Pickens)

6/ 85 TD per Target - only 5 WR scored TD more often when targeted (Dotson/ Watson/ Adams/ Lockett/ AJ Brown)

3/ 85 TD per Reception - only 2 WR scored more frequently on a catch (Dotson/ Watson)

2/ 85 Yards per Reception - only 1 WR had more yards per reception last year (Waddle)

Edited April 9, 2023 by SquirminThurman

[SquirminThurman]

Part 2:

For stat heads and fantasy geeks...

Davis was 23 last year.

Only 20/85 WR with 50+ targets were 23 or younger.

(Only 11/85 WR with 50+ targets were under 23)

 

Gabe Davis Stat Line:

48/ 93 (51.6%) 836 Yards (17.4 YPC) 7 TD (TDR% 14.6) 35 FD (FDR% 72.9)

 

Mean output for an Average NFL WR with 50+ targets

61.1/ 94.8 (64.2%) 765.3 Yards (12.5 YPC) 4.3 TD  (TDR% 6.9) 37.1 FD (FDR% 60.4)

^ this is the statistical comparison for reasonable expectations for a #2 WR

 

'Bad' output for a WR with 50+ targets (-1 STD DEV)

38.0/61.4 (57.5%) 436.4 Yards (10.3 YPC) 1.6 TD (TDR% 3.5) 21.5 FD (FDR% 50.4)

 

'Good' output for a WR with 50+ targets (+1 STD DEV)

84.2/ 128.3 (70.9%) 1094.2 Yards (14.7 YPC) 7.0 TD (TDR% 10.4) 52.7 FD (FDR% 70.3)

^ This is what a #1 WR looks like statistically

 

'Super Star' Output for a WR with 50+ targets (+2 STD DEV)

107.2/ 161.7 (77.6%) 1423.1 Yards (16.9 YPC) 9.7 TD (TDR% 13.9) 68.3 FD (FDR% 80.3)

^ This is what an All Pro WR looks like statistically

 

Diggs for Comparison

108/154 (70.1%) 1429 Yards (13.2 YPC) 11 TD (TDR% 14) 74 FD (FDR% 68.5)

Edited April 8, 2023 by SquirminThurman

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

Now roll a 3.5 in a die.

[Ann]

Diggs

 

 

[Nanker]

Johnny Unitas. Hands down. 

[Ann]

Wow
 

 

[SquirminThurman]

Having a lot of fun modeling all the WR data for the high volume WR last year (50+ targets).

 

Really interested in what I am finding. I am so tired of clowns in the Buffalo media and ATOP trashing this guy.

Did you know Gabe Davis converted 88% of his catches into a first down or TD last year?!? 88%!!!!

For stat geeks that is better than +2 Sigma over the average NFL WR. (5 Sigma for the 6 Sigma folks)

That is top 98th percentile stuff.

Still running numbers, but I haven't found any other WR that did that last year.

 

Davis had more receiving yards than the #1 WR (by targets) on 12 teams, despite being in the middle of the WR population in total targets (40th of 85 WR).

 

I am pretty sure the GMs of those 12 teams are looking at Davis like a juicy steak waiting for him to hit FA. 30th in REC yards/ 12th in TDs/ 2nd in Yards per reception/ converted 88% of his catches into TDs (and first downs) for an entire season, and he is only 23 (24 when hitting FA)

 

Dude is going to get paid. He could be the 2024 FA version of Christian Kirk.

 

Another fun stat. Only 57 of his 93 'targets' were deemed catchable. (A second source said 60 of 93, still very low) A bunch of his 'targets' were where he was the downfield receiver 'in the vicinity of the pass' types. Good for Allen getting rid of the ball and not taking a sack or drawing the penalty, but bad for Davis 'catch %'. This source is the harshest data set for number of drops, crediting him with 9. (others average 7)

 

Davis was 2nd of 85 WR in air yards per reception at 14.4.

 

Air Yards Per Reception top 5:
Gabe Davis: 14.4

George Pickens: 13.4

Corey Davis: 13.3

MVS: 12.8

DJ Chark: 12.3

 

 

I know what I saw last year, the stats are bearing it out. Diggs knows what he has in his #2WR too.

Edited April 10, 2023 by SquirminThurman

[SquirminThurman]

On 4/8/2023 at 9:35 PM, Ann said:

Wow
 

 

 

Version 1.0 of my new WR model has Diggs as the statistical #1 WR in the NFL.

Shocked me, because I had 0 bias in trying to pump up Diggs.

This is based on both net volume stats, efficiency stats, and age using some very basic six sigma methodology.

 

Top 20 NFL WR of 2022 with scores (lower number is better)

* = Pro Bowl

+ = All Pro

 

RANK	Player	Tm	OVERALL
1	Stefon Diggs*	BUF	12.7
2	Justin Jefferson*+	MIN	13.6
3	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	14.5
4	A.J. Brown*	PHI	14.6
5	CeeDee Lamb*	DAL	15.9
6	Ja'Marr Chase*	CIN	16.3
7	Tyreek Hill*+	MIA	16.9
8	Amari Cooper	CLE	19.4
9	Davante Adams*+	LVR	20.4
10	DeVonta Smith	PHI	21.0
11	Amon-Ra St. Brown*	DET	21.1
12	Tee Higgins	CIN	21.8
13	Tyler Lockett	SEA	23.3
14	Terry McLaurin*	WAS	23.3
15	Christian Kirk	JAX	23.4
16	Brandon Aiyuk	SFO	23.6
17	Mike Evans	TAM	25.2
18	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	25.7
19	Cooper Kupp	LAR	27.3
20	Chris Olave	NOR	27.7

 

Edited April 10, 2023 by SquirminThurman

[Jabba The Hutt]

17 minutes ago, SquirminThurman said:

Having a lot of fun modeling all the WR data for the high volume WR last year (50+ targets).

 

Really interested in what I am finding. I am so tired of clowns in the Buffalo media and ATOP trashing this guy.

Did you know Gabe Davis converted 88% of his catches into a first down or TD last year?!? 88%!!!!

For stat geeks that is better than +2 Sigma over the average NFL WR. (5 Sigma for the 6 Sigma folks)

That is top 98th percentile stuff.

Still running numbers, but I haven't found any other WR that did that last year.

 

Davis had more receiving yards than the #1 WR (by targets) on 12 teams, despite being in the middle of the WR population in total targets (40th of 85 WR).

 

I am pretty sure the GMs of those 12 teams are looking at Davis like a juicy steak waiting for him to hit FA. 30th in REC yards/ 12th in TDs/ 2nd in Yards per reception/ converted 88% of his catches into TDs (and first downs) for an entire season, and he is only 23 (24 when hitting FA)

 

Dude is going to get paid. He could be the 2024 FA version of Christian Kirk.

 

Another fun stat. Only 57 of his 93 'targets' were deemed catchable. (A second source said 60 of 93, still very low) A bunch of his 'targets' were where he was the downfield receiver 'in the vicinity of the pass' types. Good for Allen getting rid of the ball and not taking a sack or drawing the penalty, but bad for Davis 'catch %'. This source is the harshest data set for number of drops, crediting him with 9. (others average 7)

 

Davis was 2nd of 85 WR in air yards per reception at 14.4.

 

Air Yards Per Reception top 5:
Gabe Davis: 14.4

George Pickens: 13.4

Corey Davis: 13.3

MVS: 12.8

DJ Chark: 12.3

 

 

I know what I saw last year, the stats are bearing it out. Diggs knows what he has in his #2WR too.

Every ball Cooper Kupp catches is a TD or 1st.

[SquirminThurman]

18 minutes ago, Jabba The Hutt said:

Every ball Cooper Kupp catches is a TD or 1st.

Historically that may be true, but not last season.

 

in 2022 Kupp:

75 receptions (27th/85)

6 Rec TDs (24th/ 85)

42 First Downs (33rd/ 85)

8% TDs per reception (42nd/85)

56% First downs per reception (71st/85)

64% of Kupp's receptions went for 1st downs or TDs

 

The 2022 NFL Average for NFL WR (50+ targets) was:

6.9% TD/ REC

60.4% 1st Down/ Reception

67.3% TD or 1st Down per reception

 

Kupp was actually below average in those metrics last year.

Edited April 10, 2023 by SquirminThurman

[Jabba The Hutt]

1 hour ago, SquirminThurman said:

Historically that may be true, but not last season.

 

in 2022 Kupp:

75 receptions (27th/85)

6 Rec TDs (24th/ 85)

42 First Downs (33rd/ 85)

8% TDs per reception (42nd/85)

56% First downs per reception (71st/85)

64% of Kupp's receptions went for 1st downs or TDs

 

The 2022 NFL Average for NFL WR (50+ targets) was:

6.9% TD/ REC

60.4% 1st Down/ Reception

67.3% TD or 1st Down per reception

 

Kupp was actually below average in those metrics last year.

Trash QB fault and injury

[Spartacus]

13 hours ago, SquirminThurman said:

Having a lot of fun modeling all the WR data for the high volume WR last year (50+ targets).

 

Really interested in what I am finding. I am so tired of clowns in the Buffalo media and ATOP trashing this guy.

Did you know Gabe Davis converted 88% of his catches into a first down or TD last year?!? 88%!!!!

For stat geeks that is better than +2 Sigma over the average NFL WR. (5 Sigma for the 6 Sigma folks)

That is top 98th percentile stuff.

Still running numbers, but I haven't found any other WR that did that last year.

 

Davis had more receiving yards than the #1 WR (by targets) on 12 teams, despite being in the middle of the WR population in total targets (40th of 85 WR).

 

I am pretty sure the GMs of those 12 teams are looking at Davis like a juicy steak waiting for him to hit FA. 30th in REC yards/ 12th in TDs/ 2nd in Yards per reception/ converted 88% of his catches into TDs (and first downs) for an entire season, and he is only 23 (24 when hitting FA)

 

Dude is going to get paid. He could be the 2024 FA version of Christian Kirk.

 

Another fun stat. Only 57 of his 93 'targets' were deemed catchable. (A second source said 60 of 93, still very low) A bunch of his 'targets' were where he was the downfield receiver 'in the vicinity of the pass' types. Good for Allen getting rid of the ball and not taking a sack or drawing the penalty, but bad for Davis 'catch %'. This source is the harshest data set for number of drops, crediting him with 9. (others average 7)

 

Davis was 2nd of 85 WR in air yards per reception at 14.4.

 

Air Yards Per Reception top 5:
Gabe Davis: 14.4

George Pickens: 13.4

Corey Davis: 13.3

MVS: 12.8

DJ Chark: 12.3

 

 

I know what I saw last year, the stats are bearing it out. Diggs knows what he has in his #2WR too.

shocking that reality conflicts with Bills fans perception.

heads will again explode when Beane shuns the WR market with early picks.

 

solve the problem by featuring Knox as a primary target.

a. improve the OL to stand on its own

b. add a quality blocking TE to add flexibility in 2 TE sets 

 

 

 

[Ninety-4]

15 hours ago, SquirminThurman said:

Having a lot of fun modeling all the WR data for the high volume WR last year (50+ targets).

 

Really interested in what I am finding. I am so tired of clowns in the Buffalo media and ATOP trashing this guy.

Did you know Gabe Davis converted 88% of his catches into a first down or TD last year?!? 88%!!!!

For stat geeks that is better than +2 Sigma over the average NFL WR. (5 Sigma for the 6 Sigma folks)

That is top 98th percentile stuff.

Still running numbers, but I haven't found any other WR that did that last year.

 

Davis had more receiving yards than the #1 WR (by targets) on 12 teams, despite being in the middle of the WR population in total targets (40th of 85 WR).

 

I am pretty sure the GMs of those 12 teams are looking at Davis like a juicy steak waiting for him to hit FA. 30th in REC yards/ 12th in TDs/ 2nd in Yards per reception/ converted 88% of his catches into TDs (and first downs) for an entire season, and he is only 23 (24 when hitting FA)

 

Dude is going to get paid. He could be the 2024 FA version of Christian Kirk.

 

Another fun stat. Only 57 of his 93 'targets' were deemed catchable. (A second source said 60 of 93, still very low) A bunch of his 'targets' were where he was the downfield receiver 'in the vicinity of the pass' types. Good for Allen getting rid of the ball and not taking a sack or drawing the penalty, but bad for Davis 'catch %'. This source is the harshest data set for number of drops, crediting him with 9. (others average 7)

 

Davis was 2nd of 85 WR in air yards per reception at 14.4.

 

Air Yards Per Reception top 5:
Gabe Davis: 14.4

George Pickens: 13.4

Corey Davis: 13.3

MVS: 12.8

DJ Chark: 12.3

 

 

I know what I saw last year, the stats are bearing it out. Diggs knows what he has in his #2WR too.

I can't recall yelling at Davis through the screen much last year.  This is some solid science on my part and it agrees with yours 🙂

 

Mostly I thought he should have gotten the ball more.  

 

[SquirminThurman]

5 hours ago, Spartacus said:

shocking that reality conflicts with Bills fans perception.

heads will again explode when Beane shuns the WR market with early picks.

 

solve the problem by featuring Knox as a primary target.

a. improve the OL to stand on its own

b. add a quality blocking TE to add flexibility in 2 TE sets 

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Ninety-4 said:

I can't recall yelling at Davis through the screen much last year.  This is some solid science on my part and it agrees with yours 🙂

 

Mostly I thought he should have gotten the ball more.  

 

 

Thanks for the feedback. I do recall being irritated a few times at some drops, but it was the WR corps in general. Fan expectations are higher with a better QB than we have had for decades. The loss of Bease and inability to backfill his role properly really hurt the offense. He was a very sure handed WR and got himself into space to make uncontested catches.

 

While fans looked for a scapegoat for the clunky (yet effective) offense, the local sports media started to call attention to Davis low catch % and dropsies. They were statistically bad, But Davis wasn't alone. Pair this with unreasonable pre-season expectations and we see what we have now as the narrative of Gabe Davis.

 

Total Drops/ Drop%

Diggs: 8 (5.2%)

Davis: 9 (9.7%)

McKenzie: 6 (9.2%)

Crowder: 0 (0)

Shakir: 2 (10%)

 

Davis 'Catch %' is the other buggaboo, but little attention paid to the woeful state of the other WR beside Diggs who had an incredible season.

 

Player: 2021 Catch %/ 2022 Catch %/ (+/-)/ 2022 Catchable Targ/ Catchable %

Diggs:          62.8/ 70.1/ (+7.3)/ 117/ (75%)

Davis:          55.6/ 51.6/ (-4)/ 57/ (61%)

McKenzie:   76.9/ 64.6/ (-12.3)/ 48 (73%)

Crowder:     71.8 (Jets)/ 46.2/ (-25.6)/ (53.8%)

Shakir:         NA/ 50.0/ NA/ NA/ 12/ (60%)

 

Beasley:        73.2/ NA/ NA <= not counting his cup of coffee with the Bills in 2022

Sanders:       58.3/ NA/ NA <= don't recall people complaining about his sub 60 catch% as a deep threat WR2.

 

No one stepped up as WR3/ Slot. The loss of Bease really hurt.

 

Davis did better stepping up and replacing Sanders/ replicating his own snaps at WR2, than Crowder/ McKeznie did stepping up to WR3. IMO that meant more risky or contested targets to Diggs and Davis in 2020 and 2021 than 2022.

[Fansince88]

3 hours ago, Ninety-4 said:

I can't recall yelling at Davis through the screen much last year.  This is some solid science on my part and it agrees with yours 🙂

 

Mostly I thought he should have gotten the ball more.  

 

Yes. He did have some bad drops. That said, every WR has them at the velocity the ball is moving from Josh. We got better already replacing Isaiah.