Sabres '20?- '21 season - Kreuger's Replacement?

[IDBillzFan]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

Skinner plays a very individualistic game.  His goals come off of breakaways he creates stealing the puck from a D-man skating out of the zone & off rebounds.  He does not play well in his own end and his passingnis below average for a top 6 F.  That is a big part of why he doesn't get many chances w/ Eichel or Staal.  (Only 1 of his coaches has regularly played him with either of those 2 & that guy was not good; just sayin' ...)

 

He typically wasn't on the top line in Carolina.  After he hurt his knee against the Caps his 1st season in Buffalo he didn't score again until very late in the season. The next year he was on fire in October playing w/ Johansson & the anchor known as Sobotka and didn't do anything again for months.

 

This year he started camp on Staal's line & was on Sheahan's line by the time they opened against the Caps.  He's had a couple of games w/ Eichel & at least 1 with Staal.  He hasn't scored at all in any situation.  

 

People clamor for him to play in the top 6, but he isn't bumping Hall or Reinhart.  Olofsson plays better defensively than he does & passes better as well as demonstrated by Sheahan's goal tonight and Cozens has made both the Eakin line & then the Staal line play its best hockey.  Who does he bump based upon his actual play & not his contract?

 

On paper, he is better than Mittelstadt, but Mitts has a goal & 2 assists in only 5 games getting the same usage that has Skinner being completely useless.  (Jeff has 1 assist in 14 games & 0 goals.)

 

He wasn't worth $9MM in his 40 goal season & is quickly working his way to one of the worst contracts ever.  He's a streaky scorer and could realistically be a 25-30 goal scorer but he can't buy a break currently & he's been getting more chances on the 4th line than he has in limited opportunities in the top 6.  When he gets back in the lineup it'll be on that 4th line. 

 

Thanks for this. Like I said, I don't follow hockey, but reading Sabres fans in my timeline was like reading Bills fans pre-McDermott.

 

What are they doing? This is ridiculous! Who's driving this clown car? Trade Eichel! Kreuger Sucks! We over-payed for a guy who can't (fill in the blank)! 

 

Or in the words of one of the greatest country songs ever recorded differently on a weekly basis, 'Doom, despair and agony on me. Deep dark depression, excessive misery."

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Thanks for this. Like I said, I don't follow hockey, but reading Sabres fans in my timeline was like reading Bills fans pre-McDermott.

 

What are they doing? This is ridiculous! Who's driving this clown car? Trade Eichel! Kreuger Sucks! We over-payed for a guy who can't (fill in the blank)! 

 

Or in the words of one of the greatest country songs ever recorded differently on a weekly basis, 'Doom, despair and agony on me. Deep dark depression, excessive misery."

 

Well, truth be told, were it my decision, would have Asplund in the lineup in Okposo's spot & would have Skinner playing over either Sheahan or Lazar.  But Okposo is in for his "leadership" & Sheahan for his PK play and both he & Lazar are in for versatility.

 

Until Rieder gets back don't have major issues w/ Okposo in but would still prefer Sheahan in Kyle's spot if Rasmus III keeps Toby's spot.

 

Okposo hasn't played bad since they came back from their hiatus, but the 3rd line noticeably suffered after he replaced Cozens on that line and still isn't what it was.  And would have both Skinner & Mittelstadt on that 4th line hoping to add 5v5 offense for a team struggling there.

 

There are a lot of people that don't like Olofsson in the top 6, but his line gets chances at 5v5, he just hasn't been burying them 5v5 since he hurt his leg last season.  He WAS scoring 5v5 before that though after he finally potted an ES goal last year until he hurt his leg.  Small sample size, but my default is to expect how a young guy played when healthy to be what he really is and how a vet plays post injury as what he really is.  (So, once VO starts scoring 5v5 it will continue, but Okposo will never be what he was prior to the neurological trauma he suffered a couple years back.)

 

A huge issue for this team is that IMHO Eichel's training shoulder injury is still affecting his accuracy & until that clears up he'll be a PPG/near PPG player but won't be in the Hart Trophy conversation like he was last year.

 

Ullmark had better not be out long or the season is officially toast.

 

My 2 cents.

[snafu]

I wonder if Hall is regretting his one year deal.  Sure, he can go to a different team next year, but if he doesn't start scoring goals it won't be for the money he might have thought to get.  He's played well and his nightly level of effort is a good example for others.  If Eichel will be out for long, they need Hall to produce.  Making chances is one thing, finishing them is what he needs to do.

 

Am I missing something in Staal's game?  If not, then he's not effective.  I get it that we need a #2 Center, but he's playing like a different type of #2.

 

This team might be good if it were healthy right now (Ristolainen, McCabe, Ullmark, Eichel); and if the players they brought in to produce actually produce (Hall, Staal); and if their two "generational" guys play better (Dahlin, especially).

 

 

 

[Jauronimo]

Few thoughts about last night's game.

 

- Ullmark has been playing great hockey.  That series of saves in the first period where he ultimately hurt himself was just insane.  Get well soon, Linus.

- Hall can't buy a goal.  Pegula's could give him a blank check and he still couldn't buy a goal. Breakaway and 2 point blank chances in the first period with nothing to show for it.  Need to bury these if we are going to win games this year.

- Sheahan has as many goals as Eichel now after one game on top line.  Maybe when Eichel comes back he can play on 4th line with Skinner?

- Mittelstadt looks like an NHL player AGAIN!! Sick feed to Okposo who blew it and Casey finally buries one himself.  Goodbye Rochester. He needs to stay in Buffalo.

- This game has actually been entertaining! If you're going to suck at least be entertaining and generate chances, score a few goals.  This was 3 consecutive solid outings by my count.

- This team plays far less confidently in front of Hutton.  From the start of the second period the difference in demeanor was noticeable.  

- Hutton could not have been farther out of position on the 2nd goal allowed if he tried.

- Classic Hutton, losing his composure after giving up a goal.

- Hutton sucks

- Hutton sucks

- HUTTON SUCKS!

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/WGR550/status/1365061196995588111

 

[Alaska Darin]

I've always wondered who Botts was bidding against when he paid Skinner.  You just can't pay one-dimensional guys that kinda money in the NHL unless they're insanely special. 

[plenzmd1]

43 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

I've always wondered who Botts was bidding against when he paid Skinner.  You just can't pay one-dimensional guys that kinda money in the NHL unless they're insanely special. 

he was bidding against the the 8 year playoff drought and epic collapse that year...he needed Skinner signed at all cost

[GG1]

Linus out at least 2 games.    Welp. 

[snafu]

2 hours ago, GG1 said:

Linus out at least 2 games.    Welp. 

 

Well, if they have no choice but to put the sieve in net, then they might as well play wide open like a track meet. Maybe some of the scorers will actually score. 

 

 

[Ann]

Imagine coaching a team of 4-year-olds?
 

 

[GG1]

How many more signs are needed to see that the team has quit?

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, GG1 said:

How many more signs are needed to see that the team has quit?

cant comment too much as i did not see much of either game this weekend, but watched post game today...jeez, what a mess this team is. Maybe the worst team in Buffalo sports history...at least since i really started getting invested in the early 70's. Maybe back to back 2-14s Bills, but i was in college then and so only saw the results most time, not the games.

 

How can they keep this guy? Yes, I know its the players...but damn the lies and word salads coming out of Freddies mouth are just embarrassing

 

 

[snafu]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

cant comment too much as i did not see much of either game this weekend, but watched post game today...jeez, what a mess this team is. Maybe the worst team in Buffalo sports history...at least since i really started getting invested in the early 70's. Maybe back to back 2-14s Bills, but i was in college then and so only saw the results most time, not the games.

 

How can they keep this guy? Yes, I know its the players...but damn the lies and word salads coming out of Freddies mouth are just embarrassing

 

 

 

Makes you wonder what that locker room is like. Must be fractured beyond repair. I’m sure there’s a group of players who hate the level of effort on a nightly basis. It is rare when the whole team plays hard — almost as if it is by luck. 

 

[shrader]

Eichel, Hall, and Skinner are averaging one goal on the season. Hall scored the very first goal of the year for the team, so his goal scoring slump is only something like 15 minutes shorter than Skinner. None of this makes any sense anymore. I’d say they need to move him as soon as possible, but I’m really not sure how the slump effects his value, if at all. 
 

They pretty much need to tear it down to the studs at this point. No one wants to hear it but it’s going to be multiple years at this point. I have no idea what the draft quality is this year, but they need what Ottawa had this past year, three picks in the first round and using every single one of them. In most of the past years they didn’t have the ammo for that but they certainly do now. Hall/Reinhart/Eichel... they can bring back a ton of first round picks along with the other prospects they’d also bring. Anyone over the age of around 22, every single person should be available. This thing is done and it needs a total restart. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by shrader

[snafu]

4 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

Good morning. Let’s talk Sabres. First, allow me to state the obvious: the season is over. I’ll go ahead and quantify the despair for you. My very fancy 2021 Buffalo Sabres Playoff Formula: (112 * E - P) / (56 - G) = T.

 

E = earned points % for the current fourth-place team in the division = 0.619 as of this morning (held by the Islanders), which corresponds to 69-70 points for the entire 56-game season.

P = current number of Sabres standings points earned = 15 so far.

G = current number of Sabres games played = 19 right now.

T = target points-per-game rate needed for the remainder of the regular season = 1.468 (i.e. an earned points % of 0.734) at the moment, which corresponds to winning roughly 3 out of every 4 remaining games (example: 27-9-1).

 

For perspective, note that the Sabres have never in their previous 49 seasons maintained a higher earned points % pace than 0.706 for an entire season, which they achieved during their famous 1974-75 campaign. All of the injuries (Ullmark, McCabe, Girgensons, Borgen), the condensed revised COVID schedule, the difficult new divisional opponents, and the generally low team morale has rendered hope for a pace of 0.734+ over 37 games completely unrealistic.

 

Feel awful? Wait, I have more math for you: (7/15)^6 * (7/31) * (15/31)^3 = 0.0002642. That number is the probability of an NHL team not making the playoffs for the past 10 seasons. In other words, the chances of tying the longest playoff drought in NHL history were 1 in 3785, yet that is exactly what our Sabres are about to do. I’m too scared to look it up, but this may have been the worst 10-season block in NHL history in terms of overall earned points percentage. Hey, my job here is to provide the cold hard numbers and not necessarily the optimism.

 

I’m not really in the mood today for internet commiseration, either. So let’s instead focus on identifying the Sabres’ problems and exploring solutions. The possible list of problems:

 

1. Tenth-year ownership group: Yup. Terry and Kim are 100% culpable for this mess. But they’re not going anywhere, so we can only hope that they obtain some humility ASAP and seek top NHL advice from outside the organization.

2. First-year general manager: Yup, probably. Not upgrading Hutton at goalie, not adding depth at defense, and relying on Staal at C2 have proven to be mistakes. But again…not likely going anywhere soon.

3. Second-year head coach: Yup. With so many highly skilled players simultaneously underperforming on Ralph “Freddy” Krueger’s watch, how can anyone NOT look at him as a problem?

4. Injuries, COVID disruptions, general bad luck with puck bounces: These might be fair complaints for individual games and for brief sets of games, but they can’t possibly explain the chronic and systemic level of incompetence that we’ve witnessed from this franchise. Other teams deal with these issues, too. The good ones demonstrate some measure of resiliency. The great ones thrive under such adversity.

5. Player talent and player depth: Sorta, but I’m not buying this as a completely valid excuse. Take a look at my handy 29-man roster reference of players who have played a game this season (plus Girgensons on IR plus the top 5 prospects in the system), neatly arranged by draft pedigree:

 

Players drafted #1-8 overall (11): Dahlin-1, Hall-1, Eichel-2, Reinhart-2, Staal-2, Cozens-7, Okposo-7, Skinner-7, Mittelstadt-8, Quinn-8, Ristolainen-8.

Players drafted #14-55 overall (11): Girgensons-14, Lazar-17, Sheahan-21, Thompson-26, Jokiharju-29, Johnson-31, Asplund-33, Peterka-34, McCabe-44, Luukkonen-54, Montour-55.

Players drafted #61+ or undrafted (13): Johansson-61, Fogarty-72, Eakin-85, Borgen-92, Pekar-94, Bryson-99, Rieder-114, Miller-151, Davidson-162, Ullmark-163, Olofsson-181, Hutton-undrafted, Irwin-undrafted.

 

Yes, I realize that draft selection is a very lazy way of judging roster talent and doesn’t account for talent diminishment with advanced age, players at different stages of development, goalies tending to get selected much later, quality defensemen routinely getting drafted in the second round, Olofsson types, blah blah blah… But seriously now, how many more top-8 overall picks do we need to hoard before us fans are finally allowed to entertain dreams of finishing a season among the top half of the league?!

 

6. Locker room culture: Absolutely! This has been my longstanding thesis of what is directly wrong with our Sabres. A very specific category of players, in fact, is on the receiving end of my ire. To illustrate my point, from that extended roster of 35 above I will select players that fit into the following four groups:

 

Players making $2+ million annually (14): Hutton, Ullmark, Montour, McCabe, Ristolainen, Miller, Eichel, Staal, Eakin, Reinhart, Okposo, Olofsson, Skinner, Hall.

Players 28+ years old by the end of this season (11): Hutton, Miller, Irwin, Davidson, Staal, Eakin, Sheahan, Rieder, Okposo, Skinner, Hall.

Players not homegrown, i.e. not drafted by Buffalo (16): Hutton, Montour, Jokiharju, Miller, Irwin, Davidson, Staal, Sheahan, Lazar, Eakin, Rieder, Fogarty, Okposo, Skinner, Hall, Thompson.

“Underwhelming expensive veteran imports” (7):  

 

Notice that the last group is simply the set of all players found within each of the first three groups. 7 players, $35.125 million total in contracts, and a whopping 43.1% of the cap space! Aside from clearly not producing on the ice commensurate with their respective cap hits, these 7 losers were supposed to be teammates that the younger core could lean on for leadership. I’m referring to personality types like Drury and Briere (or Lorenzo Alexander and Kyle Williams, for you Bills aficionados), i.e. guys brought in to call out lazy teammates and hold everyone accountable and show the young pups how it’s done in the big leagues. I thought Ryan O’Reilly was supposed to be that kind of player (plot twist: maybe he was and that’s why we got rid of him??!!). Jack Eichel is clearly not that kind of player right now and may never fully develop into a proper wearer of the “C,” but Adams (great surname…not so great GM) and previous Buffalo GM’s (Murray, Botterill) did Eichel no favors by not supporting him with multiple qualified vets to help lead the team in ways that Eichel cannot.

 

This leads me to the “solutions” part of my post. I’m proposing 3 stages, beginning with the least invasive and advancing toward the more earth-shattering:

 

1. Fire Ralph within the next two weeks and replace him with a head coach who is opposite from him in both temperament and in strategy. Then observe how each player on the roster responds. I am concerned, however, that this won’t happen because of the convenient COVID excuse that can be applied to Ralph’s entire 2-season tenure here and because of the Pegulas’ desire to minimize their league-wide reputation for readily firing people.

2-A. It is imperative that we move out as many of those 7 vets I highlighted above as possible by the April 12 trade deadline. They should be replaced with a new collection of vets from outside the organization who all have proven leadership reputations. None of Hall (UFA this summer), Staal (UFA this summer), Hutton (UFA this summer), Eakin ($2.25 million salary for 1 more year), or Miller ($3.875 million salary for 1 more year) should be too hard to move.

2-B. Okposo will most likely end up as a buy-out option this off-season, with a $6 million cap hit for 2 years each that can be converted into a $2 million cap hit for 4 years each (we’re also paying Cody Hodgson $0.8 million for 2 more years…sigh).

2-C. Skinner is the proverbial elephant in the (locker) room who will cost $9 million annually for 6 more years! Eek!! We may need to consider relinquishing valuable future draft picks in order to escort him out of Buffalo. Surely someone somewhere must have a dire need for a super talented left winger and would be willing to overlook all that career inconsistency? The fact that EVERYONE ELSE on this wretched team seems to be struggling too might actually increase Skinner’s trade value a bit.

2-D. Also give the roster a temporary infusion of hard-working Rochester AHL grinder types just happy to have an NHL opportunity. Hopefully their attitudes will rub off on the mainstays.

3. I want to avoid this at all costs…but begin fielding trade calls for Eichel and other major pieces of the young core during the off-season if these players still haven’t broken out of their slumps. The problem here is that I don’t quite trust Kevyn Adams managing these trades, nor do I expect the Sabres to get favorable returns. But such is life…our owners, our GM, and Eichel’s poor attitude unfortunately present obvious solution constraints.

 

Thank you for reading this therapeutic diatribe! I am still seething with anger, but a little less than when I began typing.

 

Thanks for the math.  I do it a much more basic way...the team got 10 out of possible 20 points in January.  Then they got 5 out of 18 possible points in February.  Conclusion in a shortened season (or pretty much any season for that matter) = dead in the water.

 

Ownership's handling of the team is the biggest problem.

They have made a string of bad front office hiring decisions.  The fact that they hired a GM with zero experience and have Kim Pegula "running" things means that they've stopped investing in the team in critical areas that would help bring success.  This is exacerbated by the fact that they hired Adams in the middle of a pandemic that twisted the regular season schedule, the offseason schedule, and then the following season schedules.  So now Adams only knows strange circumstance and has had to pile Covid-related restrictions onto his plate.  He's never had this job before and instead of focusing on scouting prospects and pros and dealing with making the roster better, he's got piles of extraneous issues to deal with.

 

The next biggest problem is in the lockerroom, and I believe (JMO) that Eichel is the biggest reason.  He should never have been made a captain.  Not every superstar 20 year old should be captain in the NHL -- where captaincy means something.  The fact that this team has flat out sucked for every year that he's been on the roster as the "leader" of the team means a lot.

 

There's one other player on this team that disturbs me, and it is Dahlin.  They Sabres can choose one or the other and get rid of him for as many assets possible.

 

As far as Krueger, I have no opinion.  For all his smuth talking, what's his style of play that he expects?  Which players are playing that style for him and which are not?  Maybe the most damning thing I can say about him is the fact that his team puts out extremely inconsistent effort, and he's supposed to be a master motivator.

 

Your solutions...

1. Fire Ralph within the next two weeks

Okay.  I doubt this makes a dent.  It only solidifies what I perceive as the players running the show.  Ralph may not really be the problem.

 

2-A. It is imperative that we move out as many of those 7 vets I highlighted above as possible  (Hutton, Miller, Staal, Eakin, Okposo, Skinner, Hall).

--Hutton can go to the curb right now as far as I'm concerned, and the team will see no takers in a trade.  Might as well play whatever AHL (or even lower) prospect they have.

--I've got no problem with keeping Miller.  He's not an issue on this team.

--Swing and miss with Staal. Nice try, I suppose.  See 'ya, and again they won't get anyone to trade anything for Staal the way he's played.

--I've got no problem with keeping Eakin.  He's not an issue on this team.

--Okposo needs a buyout and retirement.

--Skinner is a broken player here and would be possibly the only one who benefits from firing Krueger.  And firing the Head Coach for a one dimensional, overpaid player is a really bad look (like New York Knicks bad).  Maybe he won't be so broken someplace else.  Get what you can (if you can) and move on.  I have heard that Skinner wants to stay in Buffalo.  That's not a positive thing.  That, to me, says the atmosphere is one where veterans can go through the motions and collect a paycheck.  Eff that, and if I'm right, then eff Skinner.

--I love the way Hall plays and I can't figure out why he can't put the puck in back of the net.  I say make a push to keep the guy, but it looks like he's going to be playing elsewhere next year.  Adams needs to turn to him and ask what his plans honestly are because he'd fetch assets in a trade.

 

2-B. Okposo

See above.

 

2-C. Skinner

I agree with you.

 

2-D. Also give the roster a temporary infusion of hard-working Rochester AHL grinder types

No way!! Keep any prospect away from this team until all the cancer is cut out.

 

3. I want to avoid this at all costs…but begin fielding trade calls for Eichel and other major pieces

Nope, jettison now.  There are two to focus upon (Eichel and Dahlin).  Get rid of one this year and the other next year. Do not get rid of Ristolainin.  Make the team his finally.

 

 

[plenzmd1]

Hmm, just listening to Freddy on GR from this morning. His goal was to be .500 in the ten games coming out of the Covid pause. Now, that's just an awesome goal!!!!

 

Can he not be fired just for that comment???? 

 

Screw it, just lose i guess.

[Alaska Darin]

If they're not backing up a Brink's truck to Claude Julian's home right now, there's literally no hope for this franchise.

 

FFS.  DO SOMETHING THAT MAKES SENSE.

[shrader]

I would be very curious to see how these players would react to a Tortorella-like coach. I don’t pay too much attention to each guy’s styles, so I’m not sure who out there fits that role. 

[plenzmd1]

Cozens team?

[GG1]

30 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Cozens team?

He seems to be a natural.